I think these guys at TMG are the most honest and hard working people for the benefit of their subscribers. Sure, sometimes the markets get crazy and no systems work, but their TMG system is robust and when markets return to normal TMG will catch the returns. As you can see from November and after, the system got back on track in a big hurry. Patience is a virtue in this game and the turtle wins the race. A++ for all the guys at TMG and shame on all the bashers.
TMG are very good at posting false information about their back testing and then increasing their sub fees. Well done keep it up. Feed people some more rubbish and when you get couple of weeks of lucky results just double your subs.
Despite all the excuses coming from the developers the reality is that this system has not made a penny in about 10 months. The scary part is that looking at the results of backtesting this seems almost impossible to happen. So it is my opinion that the results achieved during backtesting are the result of pure datamining.
I would not trade TMG during this down draft. The equity curve seems to be going down with the market. There are other end of day signals with a 100% realisum factor that are performing much better than TMG.
I would not recommend this system during this pullback in the market. Since 2/14/07 the system has tracked very well with the S&P 500. The system which trades the QQQQ has gained ~$10K and the S&P 500 has gained ~$5K since mid-March. The Win% has gone down and the max drawdown has gone up. Despite the above comments this system is one of the best on this site.
I wouldn't recommend this system until it shows a steady progression upwards. It did good at the end of 06 and a few months on 07 and since then it has been a commission killer. 150 plus percent in 2006 is nice but in the 9 months they have been live they are at 23 percent with commissions. Not bad, but anyone who didn't start using them nine months ago, then your account hasn't done much. good luck to them but 9 months is a good time to judge a system. the developers are helpful, but in the end that doesn't matter. the bottom line is I want to make money, I don't care about anything else.
I have been trading this system since January, and I can tell you the three amigos are outstanding! The Captains knowledge of the market, and his involvement with his subscriber base never fails to impress me.
Bottom line. this system works. Since subscribing, I have been trading e-mini NQ Future contracts, and have boasted far better returns than this website reflects.
If you are a new investor, be aware that no system is a substitute for proper money management! Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose, soak up all the knowledge you can, and you will learn new techniques for maximizing profits(if that's your goal).
I gave them 5 stars, because I have not had this level of confidence in any system for the past 8 years of my trading.
The system claims to have an accuracy ot 78 %, the reality is 54%. In his rebuttal on 18/7 the provider remarks that you can't judge from a short period; however the actual C2 results are from a period of 8 month! maybe it will indeed be better after a longer period ,but the actual reality should still be seriously taken in consideration against backtesting.
If you are paying $9.99 per trade, $19.98 per round trip times 73 trades as of 07/03/07 that would equal $1,458. Some brokers I realize are less. Membership of $120 per month for 7 months is equal to $840. That’s a total cost of $2,298 for the first 7 month period of the system. Assuming your starting account balance was $10,000 you would have to have a return of 22.98% to break even over the first 7 month period. The Collective2 return shows 27.99% as of 07/06/07. You would have to trade an account of much more than $10,000 to stand a chance of making substantial money. In all fairness if the system produced what the developed claims in back testing that would be a different story. I hope it does as the developers seem like sincere people.
Odds of a winning trade with this system are little better than flipping a coin. 55% Its not really doing what the provider claims at all "with a Long trade-to-trade win % of 83.3%, a Short trade-to-trade win % of 77.4%" that suggests doubtful backtesting.
I have not been able to place the last several shorts. I'm with Scottrade but they say they can't get it outside either. Anybody has a broker with deeper reserves?
I've been trading for almost 12 years now and have subscribed to about 9 fee-based trading systems ... and this is the first system that I can honestly say WORKS. At times, it almost feels like we're printing money. I'm trading the system with QLD & QID (the long & short "2x" versions of QQQQ). The original TMG 1.0 hit a rough patch in late February and the developers went back to the drawing board and emerged with TMG 2.0 that went live on 5/7/07. Since then, it's like the money printing presses have been fired up again ... and my account has grown nicely as a result. Crossing my fingers that TMG is around long enough for me to pay off my mortgage early and then buy myself an island with maybe a 50 room mansion (for me and all my future servants).
I have been using the TMG signal for over five months now. I have made money in spite of the Feb market one day panic most systems missed and some draw down. Nobody likes draw downs and in any mechanical system they happen, Clearly TMG has recovered as you see by the chart. The thing that has impressed me the most is the caliber of the three people involved who developed the signal. I like it that there are three creators. working the process. To me three heads are better than one. They are also very responsive to questions and seek input from members.
System had a tough stretch but looks to be back even stronger now. Currently at a new equity high. Sure anyone can make money in a bull environment but Merlin has also been able to follow the short term retracing. All in all I'm glad I was able to jump on this train. In addition, the experience of the designers and other subscribers is exceptional. My trading has improved. Trading options on the Q's.
System is having a hard time adopting to the changed market conditions with increased volatility after the Feb 28th correction.
Has to prove its profitability again in the future.
TMG is having a rough time recently, a problem inherent of EOD day signal in a very choppy market condition. However, you do much better if you do NOT trade the signal reversals with market orders, but rather set a close stop once you get a signal reversal and a OTO order (stop followed by market order). This certainly saved me many thousands on a couple of different days that the signal was wrong and the market gapped against the new signal, but I stayed in and on the right side of the move because the stop was not hit.
Vendor is now advising to not take signals and go to cash (of course and pay them for that great advice). You know they are true professionals when they say "if you would have done this or that (basically anything but follow the actual signal) then you could have made money". Just goes to show you can curve fit 20 yrs of data and it only took three people to figure out how to do it. It gets a 'fair' just because it hasn't blown out yet. Give it enough rope and... well you know the rest.
This is not a trend following system. It shorts when overbought and goes long when oversold. That's not what "trend following" means. They are trying to catch the change of trend (and THEN follow it?). But the signals often flip flop day to day, so how can that be trend following? It is still a good system, though lately has faltered. People should carefully examine closed trades so they know what this system is about.
TMG is described as a trend following system in the C2 overview. However, it frequently trades against the major trend. I think the fact that it trades against the trend in over bought/sold conditions should be clarified in the overview.
Some statistics on maximum drawdowms(MAEs) would also be helpful for traders that like to use hard stops.
I tried a one month subscription and MAY subscribe again if they regain their footing...but I'm going to need to see on the C2 charts first. Seems they went south about the very day they raised their subscription price.
Personally, I think they would better serve subscribers by posting the buy/sell signals before the open (to see what the futures are doing and if any calamity, like the overnight recent China meltdown, has occurred and then apply some common sense before posting the final signal).
I hope they work it out. This sysytem would be perfect for someone like me as I don't like to constantly be trading and watching for alerts....if it continues to work. So I'm pulling for them. So tweak what needs tweeked TMG...as every system will eventually fail, change is vital.
The vendor seems to imply in one of his rebuttals that last week (end of Feb 2007) was a 6 sigma event. However, looking at daily NDX returns, the 4% drop on 2/27 was a 2.2 sigma event. The weekly return was a 1.7 sigma event. This makes me wonder how TMG would perform in a true 6 sigma event.
The system was doing well for the past few months when the market was up smoothly. But reacting the recent volatile event, it did just the opposite to the common scenes, (keep long during DD, short before rebound and go long after). It likely is based too much on historical data, therefore very behind to response to any fast moving market condition.
Reading the rebuttals it seems the systems is for less sophisticated subscribers like me, don't ask, just follow, because we are not capable. Ohh please! don't insult our intelligence.
I am sick of seeing negative reviews of beginner "traders" that now start ripping into a solid system that just went into a drawdown of ~6% amidst turmoil in the global financial markets. Things you need to know: 1. This is an EOD system, and thus can not guarantee you will not be hurt by gap up or gap downs. That's just how things are, you can't blame the system developers. 2. Drawdowns are a necessary evil for any system and any mechanical trader, if you can not take the heat of being down -10 or 20% then do not trade! I give this system 5 stars because I do not know any better system for the Nasdaq futures out there. I traded this system for around 2 months now and I am very happy with the service provided. All the haters: STFU, stop trading and use a 5% CD.No drawdowns, no risk!
