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ESThunder

Futures · Started Sep 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-6.1%
Max Drawdown
64.1%
Trades
203
Win Trades
43.3%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
2.1%

About this strategy

Powerful Chaos Theory driven system trades any time 24/7 with short time frames (never extends more than a day or two, often exits intra-day)

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2014-12.481.76.230.3120.3
2015-25.8-11.9-20.6-27.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-62.2
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/11/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age146 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades203
# Profitable88
% Profitable43.3%
Avg trade duration7.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown64.1%
drawdown periodDec 23, 2014 - April 17, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)-6.1%
Avg win$385
Avg loss$257

Ratios

W:L ratio1.15
Sharpe Ratio-0.11
Sortino Ratio-0.15
Calmar Ratio0.67

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life279.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-19.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-6.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity181.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)621
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$257
Avg Win$385
# Winners88
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,524
Sum Trade PL (winners)$33,886
Num Months Winners3
# Losers115
% Winners43.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table145

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)431.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)7.19
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago4158

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.03
Treynor Index-0.19

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades14.27
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.40
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats14.26
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats22.66
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.10
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.46
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df20
t1.20
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.38
Sortino ratio2.78
Upside Potential Ratio3.99
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms17
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error19
t(b)0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.28
Treynor index (mean / b)60.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
Mean0.35
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df20
t1.02
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.24
Sortino ratio1.92
Upside Potential Ratio3.11
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms17
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error19
t(b)-0.03
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-16.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.39
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.32
df610
t1.76
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.79
Sortino ratio2.13
Upside Potential Ratio6.96
Upside part of mean1.26
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms526
N of observations611
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error609
t(b)2.25
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.73
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)2.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
Mean0.34
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.18
df610
t1.57
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio1.84
Upside Potential Ratio6.62
Upside part of mean1.23
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms526
N of observations611
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error609
t(b)2.22
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.55
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)2.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.22435003345142e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.33516978708216e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.38
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.23
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.39
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations611
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low77
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high85
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.31
Quartile 10.31
Median0.31
Quartile 30.31
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.26
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)115
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.04
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.49
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.42
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.71
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 205 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M5short1Apr 20, 2015Apr 21, 2015($483)
ES M5short1Apr 17, 2015Apr 17, 2015$467
ES M5long1Apr 17, 2015Apr 17, 2015($158)
ES M5long1Apr 16, 2015Apr 17, 2015($471)
ES M5long1Apr 15, 2015Apr 16, 2015($483)
ES M5short1Apr 14, 2015Apr 14, 2015($458)
ES M5short1Apr 13, 2015Apr 14, 2015$517
ES M5long1Apr 9, 2015Apr 10, 2015$505
ES M5long1Apr 9, 2015Apr 9, 2015($496)
ES M5long1Apr 6, 2015Apr 6, 2015$517
ES M5long1Apr 2, 2015Apr 3, 2015($458)
ES M5long1Apr 1, 2015Apr 1, 2015($471)
ES M5long1Mar 31, 2015Mar 31, 2015($471)
ES M5long1Mar 30, 2015Mar 30, 2015$480
ES M5short1Mar 24, 2015Mar 25, 2015$505
ES M5short1Mar 19, 2015Mar 20, 2015($458)
ES H5short1Mar 13, 2015Mar 13, 2015($96)
ES H5short1Mar 10, 2015Mar 11, 2015$267
ES H5short1Mar 10, 2015Mar 10, 2015$505
ES H5short1Mar 6, 2015Mar 6, 2015$467
ES H5long1Mar 5, 2015Mar 6, 2015($471)
ES H5short2Mar 4, 2015Mar 5, 2015($729)
ES H5long1Mar 4, 2015Mar 4, 2015($46)
ES H5long1Mar 3, 2015Mar 4, 2015($471)
ES H5short1Mar 3, 2015Mar 3, 2015($283)
ES H5long1Feb 24, 2015Mar 3, 2015($471)
ES H5short1Feb 20, 2015Feb 20, 2015($496)
ES H5short1Feb 19, 2015Feb 19, 2015($477)
ES H5long1Feb 17, 2015Feb 19, 2015($239)
ES H5long1Feb 13, 2015Feb 16, 2015($433)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.