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OP Advisors Portfolio

Stocks · Started Mar 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.0%
Max Drawdown
Trades
461
Win Trades
46.0%
Profit Factor
14.10
Win Months
64.2%

About this strategy

All of our systems will adapt to Macro and Market changes. At present we are estimating that a US and World based recession with concurrent Bear market in equities. For the time being we will be trading bull and bear equity ETF's as well as Bond ETF's.

Trading in bond ETF's will be long term oriented but trading in equity ETF's is short to intermediate oriented.

We will be trading high liquidity ETF's so account size and number of subscribers is of minor concern.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2014-0.17.00.71.5-5.15.7-4.85.66.05.823.6
20151.6-3.22.7-0.22.5-2.5-2.3-1.0-1.13.52.3-6.8-5.0
20163.01.5-0.54.8-10.84.41.52.41.0-6.65.61.46.5
20174.56.32.0-1.14.31.23.8-2.22.45.92.0-2.629.4
2018-1.22.21.1-4.87.5-2.90.95.5-1.7-11.93.3-8.3-11.3
201915.80.60.78.10.1-4.53.63.43.92.21.210.253.7
2020-1.50.2-13.217.33.5-0.117.80.6-1.40.49.03.337.4
20210.43.53.31.6-2.3-0.54.8-1.6-0.95.511.54.432.9
2022-17.74.5-2.1-14.23.6-14.87.33.1-16.6-1.513.0-5.0-37.8
202317.1-6.84.4-2.84.85.24.4-1.9-4.7-7.317.912.646.8
20247.00.23.8-10.310.40.1-7.22.62.02.8-2.5-8.2-1.5
20250.5-2.5-5.0-6.310.315.26.22.610.69.211.06.372.1
202612.95.3-1.023.724.620.9-3.3-5.9-3.692.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/8/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age152 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades461
# Profitable212
% Profitable46.0%
Avg trade duration107.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown
drawdown period
Annual Return (Compounded)9.0%
Avg win$5,569
Avg loss$350

Ratios

W:L ratio14.12
Sharpe Ratio0.73
Sortino Ratio1.21
Calmar Ratio2.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.58
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life303.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)7.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)22.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity17.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss22.0%
Chance of 20% account loss3.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)655
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$349
Avg Win$5,497
# Winners212
Sum Trade PL (losers)$86,877
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,165,385
Num Months Winners98
# Losers249
% Winners46.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct24516

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table151

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)236996.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)3949.95
Avg Trade Length164.60
Last Trade Ago3658

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.87
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.16
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.98
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats85.67
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.58
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.04
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.08
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df29
t1.17
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio1.38
Upside Potential Ratio3.24
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms13
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error28
t(b)1.41
p(b)0.08
t(a)0.97
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.08
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df29
t1.10
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio1.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.10
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms13
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error28
t(b)1.41
p(b)0.08
t(a)0.91
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.09
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df885
t1.36
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio1.19
Upside Potential Ratio8.97
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms424
N negative terms462
N of observations886
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error884
t(b)4.93
p(b)0
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.09
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.79
df885
t1.27
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio1.10
Upside Potential Ratio8.86
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms424
N negative terms462
N of observations886
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error884
t(b)4.93
p(b)0
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.03
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df171
t0.16
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.00
Sortino ratio0.31
Upside Potential Ratio7.40
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.66
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms81
N negative terms91
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error170
t(b)0.17
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.15
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)1.98
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.02
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df171
t0.12
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.93
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio7.26
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms81
N negative terms91
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error170
t(b)0.18
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)1.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations30
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations886
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low51
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high25
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.25
Mean of outliers low0.01
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations33
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)22
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.57
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.24

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XRS long110Jun 2, 2016Aug 29, 2016$534
TWTR long300Aug 15, 2016Aug 19, 2016($471)
TRST long1172Aug 10, 2016Aug 15, 2016$30
JKHY long80Jul 11, 2016Aug 15, 2016$12
ELS long70May 24, 2016Aug 15, 2016$507
POOL long55Jul 25, 2016Aug 15, 2016($4)
SIRI long1400Jul 26, 2016Aug 10, 2016($201)
AKS long900Jul 27, 2016Aug 10, 2016($1,517)
KAR long140Jul 26, 2016Jul 27, 2016($79)
MTN long52Jul 11, 2016Jul 27, 2016($86)
AWK long70May 20, 2016Jul 27, 2016$559
DLR long65May 31, 2016Jul 26, 2016$692
XEL long150May 31, 2016Jul 26, 2016$428
NVG long1200May 23, 2016Jul 25, 2016$423
TLT long85Jun 28, 2016Jul 11, 2016$225
TLH long95Jun 2, 2016Jul 11, 2016$480
NMZ long420May 31, 2016Jul 11, 2016$471
SH long250Jun 2, 2016Jul 6, 2016($25)
TWM long320Jun 28, 2016Jun 30, 2016($860)
PSQ long215Jun 14, 2016Jun 28, 2016$163
REXR long260Jun 8, 2016Jun 28, 2016$39
JJG long200May 20, 2016Jun 27, 2016($26)
CLGX long150Jun 6, 2016Jun 14, 2016($171)
GREK long700May 20, 2016Jun 13, 2016($726)
NDAQ long75May 24, 2016Jun 8, 2016($5)
PRMW long460May 20, 2016Jun 6, 2016($211)
RAS long1700May 26, 2016Jun 2, 2016($56)
OSTK long340May 20, 2016May 31, 2016$316
AMBR long850May 27, 2016May 31, 2016($39)
GNW long1400May 20, 2016May 26, 2016($89)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.