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Whats a Matta u Test

Futures · Started Nov 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.2%
Max Drawdown
48.7%
Trades
67
Win Trades
58.2%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
7.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20130.66.57.1
20144.23.83.12.92.91.5-3.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.115.4
2015-0.1-9.9-4.10.62.81.8-0.4-26.74.3-0.1-0.10.0-30.8
20160.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/13/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$45,000
Age156 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades67
# Profitable39
% Profitable58.2%
Avg trade duration4.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown48.7%
drawdown periodJuly 21, 2014 - Aug 25, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.2%
Avg win$623
Avg loss$1,062

Ratios

W:L ratio0.82
Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Sortino Ratio-0.39
Calmar Ratio-0.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life325.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-342.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity52.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,062
Avg Win$623
# Winners39
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,727
Sum Trade PL (winners)$24,300
Num Months Winners13
# Losers28
% Winners58.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table155

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7055.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)117.58
Avg Trade Length4.90
Last Trade Ago4015

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.37
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-9.97
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.20
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats50.94
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.31
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.82
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.53
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.04
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.21
df48
t-0.43
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio-0.24
Upside Potential Ratio0.62
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms39
N of observations49
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error47
t(b)0.49
p(b)0.31
t(a)-0.54
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.06
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.27
df48
t-0.56
p0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.70
Sortino ratio-0.30
Upside Potential Ratio0.51
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms39
N of observations49
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error47
t(b)0.62
p(b)0.27
t(a)-0.69
p(a)0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-0.04
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df1085
t-0.59
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.67
Sortino ratio-0.36
Upside Potential Ratio2.18
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms116
N negative terms970
N of observations1086
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1084
t(b)3.68
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.87
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.78
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.06
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.36
df1085
t-0.73
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.61
Sortino ratio-0.43
Upside Potential Ratio2.02
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms116
N negative terms970
N of observations1086
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1084
t(b)3.74
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.98
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.95
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.39
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.30
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6743084159205376
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.96802600942928e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations49
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.84
Number of observations1086
Minimum0.83
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low123
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high141
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.98
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.38
Quartile 10.38
Median0.38
Quartile 30.38
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-399803584
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)400
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.24
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.29
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 73 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YM U5long1Jul 31, 2015Sep 18, 2015($6,408)
ES U5long1Jul 30, 2015Sep 18, 2015($6,896)
YM M5long1Jun 11, 2015Jun 19, 2015$302
ES M5long1Jun 11, 2015Jun 18, 2015$730
YM M5short1May 28, 2015May 29, 2015$482
ES M5short1May 28, 2015May 29, 2015$530
TFS U5long1May 15, 2015May 18, 2015$542
ES M5short1Apr 20, 2015Apr 21, 2015($533)
NQ M5short1Apr 20, 2015Apr 20, 2015($23)
NQ M5short1Apr 20, 2015Apr 20, 2015($18)
ES M5short1Apr 20, 2015Apr 20, 2015($21)
ES M5long1Apr 6, 2015Apr 13, 2015$1,005
ES M5long1Mar 22, 2015Mar 25, 2015($1,508)
NQ M5long1Mar 22, 2015Mar 25, 2015($1,513)
TY H5long1Feb 18, 2015Mar 20, 2015$1,117
C H5long1Feb 9, 2015Feb 25, 2015($810)
GF H5long1Feb 17, 2015Feb 24, 2015($4,058)
S H5long1Feb 6, 2015Feb 10, 2015($896)
LE G5long1Feb 2, 2015Feb 5, 2015($588)
ES U4long1Jul 24, 2014Jul 24, 2014($238)
TFS U4long1Jul 24, 2014Jul 24, 2014($124)
TFS U4long1Jul 23, 2014Jul 24, 2014($709)
TFS U4long1Jul 22, 2014Jul 22, 2014$787
QHO Q4long1Jul 22, 2014Jul 22, 2014($321)
QC U4short1Jul 21, 2014Jul 21, 2014$528
QC U4short1Jul 18, 2014Jul 18, 2014($176)
ES U4long1Jul 14, 2014Jul 15, 2014$80
QHO Q4long1Jul 10, 2014Jul 11, 2014($1,945)
ES U4long2Jun 16, 2014Jun 17, 2014$3
QPL N4long1Jun 5, 2014Jun 10, 2014$1,554

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.