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Zip4x

Forex · Started Oct 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
42.0%
Max Drawdown
89.3%
Trades
796
Win Trades
99.4%
Profit Factor
3.20
Win Months
54.5%

About this strategy

Zip4x is a live trading account of an experienced Forex trading team, led by Enzo Stipoli. The team uses fundamental, proprietary technical analysis, and unique capital management techniques to form the strategy. The trading system is implemented in a semi-automated manner by the team so that we have a final decision for each trade opened. The system is constantly monitored, adjusted and optimized. Trading size might vary according to market conditions.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20133.238.3-20.513.5
201464.67.225.9-37.935.1-83.6348.772.167.619.630.8-3.8496.2
201554.5-33.029.2-32.999.932.615.69.28.0-2.15.7-6.3214.3
201634.511.115.75.43.015.8-2.5-0.2-11.3-44.754.13.064.5
2017-17.4-1.937.733.89.2-10.7-16.754.6-0.6-10.211.8-1.085.2
201811.810.010.6-3.69.94.01.37.00.81.1-0.84.070.8
20196.9-0.24.0-8.3-8.313.62.3-12.7-5.715.40.212.316.0
2020-0.2-8.2-12.72.810.510.011.24.5-7.51.517.51.630.0
20214.93.0-9.77.62.4-8.8-0.61.3-0.34.4-9.0-1.4-7.7
2022-7.74.26.2-14.30.8-14.73.7-8.3-23.57.140.6-1.3-18.6
20235.5-15.31.7-3.3-4.92.14.3-10.94.7-11.321.97.5-3.6
2024-11.04.3-9.9-0.910.6-1.7-8.419.92.4-16.0-7.6-11.1-30.0
2025-4.24.70.117.11.37.2-10.5-5.9-0.0-0.0-0.00.07.4
20260.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/31/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age156 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades796
# Profitable791
% Profitable99.4%
Avg trade duration6.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown89.3%
drawdown periodApril 04, 2014 - July 05, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)42.0%
Avg win$8,480
Avg loss$417,784

Ratios

W:L ratio3.21
Sharpe Ratio0.68
Sortino Ratio1.10
Calmar Ratio1.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life331.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)8638.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)42.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)42.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity109.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss84.5%
Chance of 20% account loss73.0%
Chance of 30% account loss61.5%
Chance of 40% account loss48.5%
Chance of 50% account loss33.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)27.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)17.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)6.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$417,784
Avg Win$8,480
# Winners791
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,088,921
Sum Trade PL (winners)$6,707,860
Num Months Winners86
# Losers5
% Winners99.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table156

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)9524.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)158.75
Avg Trade Length6.60
Last Trade Ago377

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)10.53
Daily leverage (max)30.41

Regression

Alpha0.16
Beta0.44
Treynor Index0.39

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.09
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.07
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.05
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats99.84
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats63.71
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades3.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.20

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.39
SD1.93
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df83
t1.90
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio3.31
Upside Potential Ratio4.76
Upside part of mean2.00
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD1.91
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms32
N of observations84
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion1.39
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion1.93
Covariance0.01
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.34
Mean Square Error3.76
DF error82
t(b)0.26
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.78
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.84
Treynor index (mean / b)5.80
Jensen alpha (a)1.34
Mean0.62
SD1.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df83
t1.54
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio1.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.30
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.89
Downside SD0.59
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms32
N of observations84
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion1.06
Covariance0.02
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error1.13
DF error82
t(b)0.64
p(b)0.26
t(a)1.37
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.38
Treynor index (mean / b)1.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
VaR(95%)0.36
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.44
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
Mean1.06
SD0.95
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.12
df1846
t2.97
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio1.82
Upside Potential Ratio8.04
Upside part of mean4.68
Downside part of mean-3.62
Upside SD0.75
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms935
N negative terms912
N of observations1847
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion1.06
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.95
Covariance0.02
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.97
Mean Square Error0.89
DF error1845
t(b)4.68
p(b)0.43
t(a)2.72
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.67
Treynor index (mean / b)2.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.97
Mean0.61
SD0.95
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df1846
t1.71
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.38
Sortino ratio0.92
Upside Potential Ratio6.66
Upside part of mean4.44
Downside part of mean-3.82
Upside SD0.68
Downside SD0.67
N nonnegative terms935
N negative terms912
N of observations1847
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.95
Covariance0.02
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.53
Mean Square Error0.90
DF error1845
t(b)4.62
p(b)0.43
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.53
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-0.15
SD0.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.17
df130
t-0.12
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio-0.24
Upside Potential Ratio8.17
Upside part of mean5.05
Downside part of mean-5.20
Upside SD0.65
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.50
Mean of criterion-0.15
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.90
Covariance0.18
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.47
Mean Square Error0.66
DF error129
t(b)5.55
p(b)0.23
t(a)-1.26
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-1.47
Mean-0.55
SD0.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.61
df130
t-0.43
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio-0.85
Upside Potential Ratio7.48
Upside part of mean4.85
Downside part of mean-5.40
Upside SD0.62
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion-0.55
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.90
Covariance0.17
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.73
Mean Square Error0.66
DF error129
t(b)5.37
p(b)0.24
t(a)-1.48
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.59
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.65
Jensen alpha (a)-1.73
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations84
Minimum0.30
Quartile 10.93
Median1.03
Quartile 31.12
Maximum5.63
Mean of quarter 10.81
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.58
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.46
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high2.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations1847
Minimum0.49
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.57
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low110
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high144
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.07
Median0.15
Quartile 30.38
Maximum0.82
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.22
Mean of quarter 40.54
Inter Quartile Range0.31
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.61
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.74
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.72
Expected Shortfall (regression method)3.04
Number of observations106
Minimum0
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.84
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.41
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.44
Number of observations3
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.21
Median0.35
Quartile 30.37
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.35
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-386215296
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)92
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)12.96
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.91
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.08
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)12.87
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.90
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.03
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.46
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.41
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.71

Trading record

Placed 2482 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NZD/USD long31000Jan 27, 2020Aug 21, 2025($2,088,730)
NZD/JPY long9000Jan 31, 2020Feb 2, 2020$2,009
NZD/USD long21000Jan 22, 2020Jan 23, 2020$53,070
NZD/USD long21000Jan 19, 2020Jan 20, 2020$7,410
NZD/USD long22000Jan 13, 2020Jan 16, 2020$21,880
NZD/USD long30000Jan 9, 2020Jan 12, 2020$91,860
USD/CAD short9000Jan 12, 2020Jan 12, 2020$603
NZD/USD long21000Jan 7, 2020Jan 8, 2020$18,540
USD/CAD short15000Jan 2, 2020Jan 6, 2020$16,630
NZD/USD long15000Dec 10, 2019Dec 11, 2019$31,470
EUR/USD long7000Dec 8, 2019Dec 9, 2019$9,680
NZD/USD long50750Jul 23, 2019Dec 4, 2019$145,348
EUR/USD long9000Dec 3, 2019Dec 3, 2019$1,470
NZD/USD long44000Mar 26, 2019Jul 22, 2019$6,262
USD/CAD short25000Mar 25, 2019Mar 25, 2019$16,874
NZD/USD long32500Mar 21, 2019Mar 25, 2019$30,875
NZD/USD long25000Mar 20, 2019Mar 20, 2019$12,900
EUR/USD long27000Feb 3, 2019Mar 20, 2019$12,885
USD/CAD short10000Mar 19, 2019Mar 20, 2019$38,558
USD/CAD short10000Mar 14, 2019Mar 19, 2019$35,758
NZD/USD short10000Mar 13, 2019Mar 14, 2019$7,700
USD/CAD short13000Mar 3, 2019Mar 13, 2019$10,742
NZD/JPY short10000Feb 25, 2019Feb 25, 2019$20
USD/JPY short8000Feb 20, 2019Feb 21, 2019$86
USD/CAD short5000Feb 10, 2019Feb 12, 2019$8,581
NZD/JPY short10000Feb 5, 2019Feb 5, 2019$99
USD/CAD short35000Jan 31, 2019Feb 1, 2019$84,692
USD/CAD short30000Jan 30, 2019Jan 31, 2019$20,033
EUR/USD long25500Jan 14, 2019Jan 30, 2019$60,724
USD/CAD short5000Jan 23, 2019Jan 24, 2019$5,816

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.