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Safe Capital

Futures · Started Sep 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
201
Win Trades
33.3%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
1.9%

About this strategy

UPDATE: due to serious technical problems which happened at the beginning of september the system has been suspended and will be continued under version 2. All paying existing subscribers will be offered a free month.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201357.660.750.2-114.5-155.0
2014-7.5-7.0-6.60.00.0-2.10.00.0-0.30.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.0-2.20.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/9/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,594
Age158 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades201
# Profitable67
% Profitable33.3%
Avg trade duration17.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodSept 30, 2013 - June 11, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$711
Avg loss$348

Ratios

W:L ratio1.02
Sharpe Ratio-1.28
Sortino Ratio-1.33
Calmar Ratio0.05

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.14
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life353.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-521.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$348
Avg Win$711
# Winners67
Sum Trade PL (losers)$46,687
Sum Trade PL (winners)$47,647
Num Months Winners3
# Losers134
% Winners33.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table4

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1049.92
Avg Position Time (hrs)17.50
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago4654

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-4.36
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.57
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-73.41
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.70
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.01
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.91
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.16
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.31
SD0.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df32
t0.66
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio0.77
Upside Potential Ratio1.44
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.66
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms29
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.78
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.63
DF error31
t(b)-0.31
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.72
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
Mean0.01
SD0.83
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.01
df32
t0.02
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio0.02
Upside Potential Ratio0.66
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD0.67
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms29
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.83
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.72
DF error31
t(b)-0.07
p(b)0.53
t(a)0.05
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.33
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.39
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean0.16
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.32
df732
t0.54
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio0.41
Upside Potential Ratio1.94
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms688
N of observations733
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error731
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.66
t(a)0.58
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.01
SD0.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df732
t0.03
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio0.02
Upside Potential Ratio1.42
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms688
N of observations733
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.58
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error731
t(b)-0.45
p(b)0.67
t(a)0.07
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.71
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6817646402076672
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.49363723139823e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.33
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.00
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.66
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations733
Minimum0.51
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.39
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high45
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.67
Quartile 10.67
Median0.67
Quartile 30.67
Maximum0.67
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.76
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (moments method)7.99
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.83
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-440706496
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)254
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.10
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.55
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 532 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YM M4short12Dec 17, 2013Dec 17, 2013($4,380)
YM M4short12Dec 17, 2013Dec 17, 2013($4,662)
YM H4long16Dec 16, 2013Dec 17, 2013($316)
ES H4long4Dec 16, 2013Dec 16, 2013($110)
NQ H4short4Dec 16, 2013Dec 16, 2013($168)
YM H4short12Dec 16, 2013Dec 16, 2013($669)
NQ H4long1Dec 16, 2013Dec 16, 2013($48)
YM H4long3Dec 16, 2013Dec 16, 2013$57
NQ H4short9Dec 13, 2013Dec 16, 2013($2,547)
YM H4short20Dec 13, 2013Dec 16, 2013($5,027)
YM H4long2Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($108)
NQ H4long8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($822)
ES H4long6Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($216)
NQ H4short8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013$1,242
ES H4short6Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013$198
NQ H4long8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($326)
ES H4long4Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($682)
YM H4long6Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($670)
YM H4long2Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($320)
ES H4short8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($764)
NQ H4short8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($755)
ES H4long8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($96)
NQ H4long8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($362)
NQ Z3long8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($234)
ES Z3long8Dec 13, 2013Dec 13, 2013($196)
YM Z3short2Dec 12, 2013Dec 12, 2013($286)
ES Z3short2Dec 12, 2013Dec 12, 2013($222)
ES Z3long1Dec 12, 2013Dec 12, 2013($196)
YM H4long3Dec 12, 2013Dec 12, 2013($292)
ES Z3long4Dec 12, 2013Dec 12, 2013$34

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.