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Fxsignals DMI

Forex · Started May 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.0%
Max Drawdown
51.1%
Trades
81
Win Trades
79.0%
Profit Factor
19.50
Win Months
51.9%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20130.62.716.21.0-9.15.4-6.7-19.3-12.5
201422.1-22.9-2.0-12.938.5-12.837.427.842.94.72.521.1216.8
201529.70.512.5-12.010.7-1.73.7-6.31.04.19.4-5.847.8
20160.40.8-13.91.74.00.8-2.50.4-2.37.38.54.98.5
2017-6.64.1-1.9-4.7-10.6-4.9-11.00.22.66.5-10.0-3.6-34.8
2018-16.69.2-7.313.815.33.8-2.13.0-3.111.6-0.5-0.224.4
2019-3.42.94.30.00.08.43.5-1.80.1-5.35.0
20206.01.31.64.6-4.0-7.5-15.6-5.29.6-5.3-4.7-10.6-28.3
20211.51.814.3-10.3-6.815.9-0.50.44.80.912.02.138.1
20223.5-2.72.816.1-4.47.53.57.38.8-5.2-11.7-5.218.5
2023-5.57.7-6.0-3.88.4-5.1-3.77.94.30.7-8.9-3.5-9.1
20245.00.42.52.5-3.62.20.0-8.98.411.6-1.516.3
20255.4-4.3-7.5-17.85.3-9.75.4-1.20.0-0.0-0.00.0-24.1
20260.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/1/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age163 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades81
# Profitable64
% Profitable79.0%
Avg trade duration221.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown51.1%
drawdown periodNov 09, 2013 - May 07, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)10.0%
Avg win$434
Avg loss$84

Ratios

W:L ratio19.51
Sharpe Ratio0.33
Sortino Ratio0.53
Calmar Ratio1.22

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life380.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-131.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity57.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.3%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)13.3%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated2.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$84
Avg Win$434
# Winners64
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,423
Sum Trade PL (winners)$27,763
Num Months Winners87
# Losers17
% Winners79.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table161

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)319280.22
Avg Position Time (hrs)5321.34
Avg Trade Length221.70
Last Trade Ago382

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta-0.18
Treynor Index-0.21

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.37
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.27
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats2.37
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats77.22
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.63
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.71

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.61
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.97
df33
t1.68
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio1.98
Upside Potential Ratio3.77
Upside part of mean1.15
Downside part of mean-0.55
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms14
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance-0.07
r-0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.01
Mean Square Error0.33
DF error32
t(b)-2.24
p(b)0.98
t(a)2.61
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.88
Jensen alpha (a)1.01
Mean0.43
SD0.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df33
t1.24
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio2.99
Upside part of mean1.03
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD0.47
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms14
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.58
Covariance-0.06
r-0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.79
Mean Square Error0.30
DF error32
t(b)-2.23
p(b)0.98
t(a)2.17
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.79
VaR(95%)0.21
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.26
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean0.68
SD0.73
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df747
t1.58
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.10
Sortino ratio1.52
Upside Potential Ratio9.55
Upside part of mean4.30
Downside part of mean-3.61
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms390
N negative terms358
N of observations748
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.68
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.73
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.76
Mean Square Error0.53
DF error746
t(b)-1.64
p(b)0.95
t(a)1.75
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.61
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.76
Mean0.42
SD0.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df747
t1.01
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.76
Sortino ratio0.90
Upside Potential Ratio8.83
Upside part of mean4.14
Downside part of mean-3.72
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms390
N negative terms358
N of observations748
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.71
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error0.51
DF error746
t(b)-1.53
p(b)0.94
t(a)1.15
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.26
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.44
df130
t0.31
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.21
Sortino ratio0.63
Upside Potential Ratio8.63
Upside part of mean3.52
Downside part of mean-3.26
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance-0.05
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error129
t(b)-1.89
p(b)0.60
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
Mean0.09
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.15
df130
t0.10
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.92
Sortino ratio0.20
Upside Potential Ratio8.14
Upside part of mean3.44
Downside part of mean-3.35
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.11
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance-0.05
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error129
t(b)-1.92
p(b)0.61
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.94
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations34
Minimum0.69
Quartile 10.92
Median1.05
Quartile 31.16
Maximum1.45
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.28
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.30
Number of observations748
Minimum0.81
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high22
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.13
Quartile 10.18
Median0.26
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.13
Mean of quarter 20.20
Mean of quarter 30.33
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.47
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.37
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.40
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.41
Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-388015424
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)179
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.93
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.18
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.92
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.57
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.72
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.69

Trading record

Placed 89 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NZD/USD short10Sep 12, 2013Aug 21, 2025$2,318
AUD/USD short10Sep 12, 2013Aug 21, 2025$2,817
EUR/USD short100Jul 23, 2013Aug 21, 2025$17,929
USD/CAD short10Sep 12, 2013Sep 18, 2013$75
GBP/USD long10Sep 12, 2013Sep 12, 2013$26
CHF/JPY short30Sep 11, 2013Sep 12, 2013$1
USD/JPY short10Sep 11, 2013Sep 11, 2013$0
AUD/USD long10Sep 11, 2013Sep 11, 2013$27
GBP/USD long10Sep 10, 2013Sep 11, 2013$34
USD/CHF long20Jul 23, 2013Sep 10, 2013$54
USD/JPY long10Jul 24, 2013Sep 10, 2013$0
GBP/USD short40Jul 21, 2013Aug 1, 2013$645
USD/JPY short20Jul 12, 2013Jul 22, 2013$0
NZD/USD long10Jul 12, 2013Jul 16, 2013$83
GBP/USD long10Jul 12, 2013Jul 16, 2013$15
AUD/USD long20Jul 12, 2013Jul 16, 2013$410
AUD/USD long10Jul 11, 2013Jul 11, 2013($59)
EUR/USD short50May 29, 2013Jul 9, 2013$426
USD/CHF long20May 29, 2013Jul 4, 2013$83
USD/JPY long20Jun 11, 2013Jul 2, 2013$2
GBP/USD short10Jun 11, 2013Jun 27, 2013$308
USD/CAD long10Jun 11, 2013Jun 20, 2013$43
EUR/JPY short10Jun 3, 2013Jun 3, 2013($0)
USD/JPY short10May 30, 2013Jun 3, 2013$0
AUD/USD long10May 31, 2013Jun 3, 2013$49
GBP/USD long20May 30, 2013May 30, 2013$67
AUD/USD long10May 30, 2013May 30, 2013$57
USD/JPY long10May 28, 2013May 29, 2013($0)
GBP/USD long10May 29, 2013May 29, 2013$19
USD/CHF short30May 28, 2013May 28, 2013($178)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.