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test

Futures · Started Feb 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
85
Win Trades
77.6%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
1.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201372.854.5-128.2-0.9-0.4-1.10.00.00.00.00.0-177.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/1/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age165 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades85
# Profitable66
% Profitable77.6%
Avg trade duration5.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 15, 2013 - April 17, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$1,048
Avg loss$5,117

Ratios

W:L ratio0.71
Sharpe Ratio-1.67
Sortino Ratio-1.74
Calmar Ratio-0.98

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life402.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-587.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$5,117
Avg Win$1,048
# Winners66
Sum Trade PL (losers)$97,223
Sum Trade PL (winners)$69,157
Num Months Winners2
# Losers19
% Winners77.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table3

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)317.17
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.29
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago4890

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.92
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.10
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.80
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats43.36
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.81
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df30
t0.03
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio0.02
Upside Potential Ratio0.68
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.56
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms29
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.85
Covariance-0.02
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.75
DF error29
t(b)-0.49
p(b)0.69
t(a)0.29
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean-3.92
SD6.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.56
df30
t-0.93
p0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.67
Sortino ratio-0.58
Upside Potential Ratio0.05
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-4.24
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD6.78
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms29
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion-3.92
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion6.81
Covariance-0.08
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.30
Mean Square Error47.87
DF error29
t(b)-0.23
p(b)0.59
t(a)-0.65
p(a)0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-10.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.52
Jensen alpha (a)-3.30
VaR(95%)0.97
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.26
Mean-0.78
SD0.98
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.80
df690
t-1.29
p0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.41
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio0.54
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-1.30
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.95
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms661
N of observations691
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion-0.78
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.98
Covariance0.01
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.84
Mean Square Error0.96
DF error689
t(b)0.78
p(b)0.22
t(a)-1.38
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.84
Mean-3.84
SD4.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.82
df690
t-1.33
p0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio0.11
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-4.34
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD4.68
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms661
N of observations691
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-3.84
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion4.68
Covariance0.05
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.14
Mean Square Error21.91
DF error689
t(b)0.94
p(b)0.17
t(a)-1.43
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.44
Jensen alpha (a)-4.14
VaR(95%)0.39
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.45
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.01
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.90
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819153398726656
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.59651385935275e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.88
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.55
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations691
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high30
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.13
Median0.19
Quartile 30.59
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.19
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.46
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-406653696
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.99
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.15
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 374 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL K3long15Apr 11, 2013Apr 17, 2013($62,260)
QCL K3long2Apr 11, 2013Apr 11, 2013$104
QCL K3short6Apr 11, 2013Apr 11, 2013$737
QCL K3short3Apr 10, 2013Apr 10, 2013($269)
QCL K3long3Apr 10, 2013Apr 10, 2013$501
QCL K3long2Apr 10, 2013Apr 10, 2013$159
QCL K3short1Apr 10, 2013Apr 10, 2013$72
QCL K3long1Apr 10, 2013Apr 10, 2013$67
QCL K3short1Apr 10, 2013Apr 10, 2013$127
QCL K3long8Apr 9, 2013Apr 9, 2013$186
QCL K3short5Apr 9, 2013Apr 9, 2013$75
ES M3short2Apr 9, 2013Apr 9, 2013$174
QCL K3long1Apr 9, 2013Apr 9, 2013$67
ES M3short7Apr 5, 2013Apr 5, 2013($2,019)
QCL K3long8Apr 4, 2013Apr 4, 2013($719)
QCL K3long9Apr 3, 2013Apr 3, 2013$473
QCL K3short1Apr 3, 2013Apr 3, 2013($8)
QCL K3short10Apr 3, 2013Apr 3, 2013($533)
QCL K3long13Apr 3, 2013Apr 3, 2013($3,212)
QCL K3short13Apr 3, 2013Apr 3, 2013$6,685
QCL K3long13Apr 3, 2013Apr 3, 2013($11,174)
QCL K3short1Apr 2, 2013Apr 2, 2013$314
QCL K3long1Apr 2, 2013Apr 2, 2013$58
QCL K3long4Apr 2, 2013Apr 2, 2013$788
QCL K3long8Apr 1, 2013Apr 1, 2013$2,070
QCL K3long7Mar 27, 2013Mar 27, 2013($1,806)
QCL K3short3Mar 27, 2013Mar 27, 2013($1,072)
QCL K3short7Mar 26, 2013Mar 26, 2013($1,436)
QCL K3short3Mar 26, 2013Mar 26, 2013$524
QCL K3short2Mar 26, 2013Mar 26, 2013($64)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.