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Compounding Value

Stocks · Started Dec 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
151
Win Trades
67.5%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
22.0%

About this strategy

I am a Columbia MBA/Stanford BA with an extensive background in value investing and financial modeling. This top-performing portfolio delivers a high annualized return with significant downside protection. I currently use this approach to generate significant alpha in live accounts while minimizing risk.

Key features of this portfolio include:

Idea generation

-Run screens with exceptional back-test results.
-Screens include multiple valuation factors such as EV/EBIT, price to cashflow and price to tangible book.

Research and analysis

-Scrutinize business fundamentals including gross margins, free cash flow, competitive advantages, top-line growth and corporate expense reduction.
-Assess overarching industry trends for each security.
-Ensure catalysts that will propel stock to fair value in the near term.
-Ensure 50%+ margin of safety between price and fair value to yield downside protection.
-High liquidity stocks ensure scalability.

Subscriptions will be capped shortly. Please email any questions to compoundingvalue@gmail.com.


Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201215.215.2
201311.9-8.16.02.527.4-7.921.3-3.56.61.71.15.377.1
2014-0.49.54.61.9-4.12.2-6.911.6-10.013.2-2.8-16.4-2.0
20159.815.9-3.1-6.09.6-6.310.8-11.4-15.513.4-1.6-7.41.9
2016-21.23.31.9-6.45.5-5.515.20.64.7-27.749.0-6.1-5.0
201714.9-13.0-9.313.1-8.69.524.9-5.36.7-33.7-37.80.00.0
201851.717.6-9.373.0-24.0-43.2-61.1-230.1-27.6-44.1-245.0-250.4
20190.0-5.5-10.4-2.3-0.80.0-5.5-5.0-3.6-1.0-3.8
2020-0.5-2.6-2.7-1.5-0.8-4.4-3.7-1.7-0.1-0.3-3.4-1.8
2021-0.7-8.3-3.2-2.7-2.9-2.9-3.0-0.2-2.6-0.1-0.2-0.1
2022-2.7-1.1-0.5-1.9-0.3-1.00.0-3.50.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/11/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age167 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades151
# Profitable102
% Profitable67.5%
Avg trade duration132.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodSept 01, 2018 - Sept 01, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$574
Avg loss$1,569

Ratios

W:L ratio0.79
Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Sortino Ratio-0.42
Calmar Ratio-0.77

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.15
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life431.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-677.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss79.0%
Chance of 20% account loss58.0%
Chance of 30% account loss44.5%
Chance of 40% account loss27.0%
Chance of 50% account loss10.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)5.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,569
Avg Win$574
# Winners102
Sum Trade PL (losers)$76,895
Sum Trade PL (winners)$58,499
Num Months Winners36
# Losers49
% Winners67.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2142

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table70

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)190553.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)3175.90
Avg Trade Length132.30
Last Trade Ago3111

Regression

Alpha0
Beta1.36
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.25
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.72
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.30
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats54.33
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.28
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.13
SD0.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df74
t-0.52
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.58
Sortino ratio-0.23
Upside Potential Ratio0.82
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.57
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms38
N of observations75
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.62
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.40
DF error73
t(b)0.11
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.52
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean-1.50
SD3.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df74
t-1.12
p0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.35
Sortino ratio-0.45
Upside Potential Ratio0.13
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-1.93
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD3.36
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms38
N of observations75
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-1.50
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion3.36
Covariance-0.07
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.89
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.08
Mean Square Error11.32
DF error73
t(b)-0.93
p(b)0.82
t(a)-0.76
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)0.80
Jensen alpha (a)-1.08
VaR(95%)0.82
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.87
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25
Mean37.90
SD96.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df1650
t0.99
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.18
Sortino ratio58.05
Upside Potential Ratio61.25
Upside part of mean40.00
Downside part of mean-2.09
Upside SD96.01
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms676
N negative terms975
N of observations1651
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion37.90
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion96.01
Covariance-0.20
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.95
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)38.71
Mean Square Error9222.57
DF error1649
t(b)-0.32
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-20.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta14.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-36.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha113.91
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.84
Jensen alpha (a)38.71
Mean-1.49
SD4.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.32
df1650
t-0.81
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.46
Sortino ratio-0.36
Upside Potential Ratio0.63
Upside part of mean2.59
Downside part of mean-4.08
Upside SD2.20
Downside SD4.09
N nonnegative terms676
N negative terms975
N of observations1651
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-1.49
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion4.65
Covariance0.09
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.82
Mean Square Error21.47
DF error1649
t(b)3.06
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.98
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.09
Jensen alpha (a)-1.82
VaR(95%)0.38
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.45
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.38
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.30
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6726690269036544
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)5.31450947143443e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations75
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 10.81
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.49
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.62
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.36
Number of observations1651
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum242
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.61
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low95
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high94
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high3.62
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.60
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.07
Quartile 30.21
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 40.65
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.56
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.89
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.96
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.55
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations47
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.10
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high0.69
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.75
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)2.15
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-411004832
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)731
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.77
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.18
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.88
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.77
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-3.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.72
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 92 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XRF long2380Oct 17, 2017Mar 5, 2018($6,655)
YRD long140Oct 9, 2017Dec 4, 2017($1,810)
QD long200Oct 18, 2017Dec 1, 2017($3,474)
SEDG long200Oct 3, 2017Dec 1, 2017$1,206
NVDA long30Sep 26, 2017Dec 1, 2017($20)
TEAM long200Oct 31, 2017Nov 28, 2017$622
BZUN long813Sep 18, 2017Oct 31, 2017($1,486)
THO long10Oct 17, 2017Oct 31, 2017$48
HCC long450Oct 24, 2017Oct 30, 2017($653)
YIN long300Oct 17, 2017Oct 30, 2017($411)
OSTK long730Oct 3, 2017Oct 30, 2017$3,321
AMAT long200Oct 9, 2017Oct 26, 2017$694
OLED long177Sep 26, 2017Oct 9, 2017$446
DQ long700Sep 18, 2017Oct 9, 2017$157
KEM long700Sep 15, 2017Sep 27, 2017$337
QLYS long100Sep 18, 2017Sep 26, 2017($67)
THO long100Sep 18, 2017Sep 26, 2017$211
MZOR long200Sep 18, 2017Sep 18, 2017$272
STMP long75Sep 12, 2017Sep 18, 2017$300
LRCX long25Sep 12, 2017Sep 18, 2017$156
SGMS long400Sep 15, 2017Sep 18, 2017$752
MKSI long240Sep 5, 2017Sep 18, 2017$1,113
YRD long300Aug 30, 2017Sep 15, 2017$1,349
AAOI long140Aug 30, 2017Sep 14, 2017($778)
KEM long200Sep 5, 2017Sep 12, 2017($481)
PLYA long230Jun 20, 2017Sep 12, 2017$2,520
NVDA long50Aug 18, 2017Sep 5, 2017$276
LYV long215Aug 16, 2017Aug 30, 2017$106
SPR long100Aug 16, 2017Aug 30, 2017$227
SEDG long270Aug 14, 2017Aug 18, 2017($248)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.