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Vision forex

Forex · Started Oct 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.1%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
656
Win Trades
93.0%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
14.3%

About this strategy

Trading Forex only. My system need that customers accept a lot of risk. Before you start to autotrade with my system, please send me an e-mail with the amount in your account and the leverage you will use. When I have this information, I can explain you exactly how to trade with me.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20126.510.0-12.72.2
201332.819.52.927.56.99.1-4.814.33.4-2.14.98.3204.5
2014-43.072.115.711.7-8.42.4-25.9-15.6-31.49.561.3-68.3-71.4
2015-654.8-0.5-53.9-37.2-9.1-7.3-8.5-20.8-9.6-29.8-30.7-20.2-793.6
2016-12.2-21.2-30.4-12.0-21.1-32.0-0.3-1.2-0.8-4.6-1.1-0.7
2017-12.1-13.3-0.8-10.4-23.0-25.9-42.9-18.1-11.1-28.7-29.1-30.5
2018-105.6-1300.3-14.2-96.2-112.0-26.9-2.3-12.9-16.8-69.8-1.2-12.7
2019-6.6-1.5-16.1-0.7-4.9-1.9-4.9-22.1-1.3-12.2-8.2-12.9
2020-11.8-3.4-4.0-23.0-17.3-6.2-38.9-12.9-39.0-3.1-29.1-39.6
2021-15.7-6.0-31.6-37.7-53.4-153.5-17.7-6.5-9.5-2.5-51.6-9.9
2022-20.5-5.1-12.9-11.0-3.4-1.0-37.6-7.9-10.0-24.9-23.0-7.0
2023-13.4-10.1-17.7-30.0-25.4-59.0-15.3-47.8-42.4-1.1-69.0-46.4
2024-3.2-6.5-31.4-9.6-128.1-117.7-325.4-67.2-106.3-27.6-256.4-8.0
2025-21.6-7.5-66.5-223.10.5107.552.7-11.2-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-251.8
2026-0.10.1-0.10.0-0.0-0.1-0.00.10.30.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/12/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$41,199
Age169 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades656
# Profitable610
% Profitable93.0%
Avg trade duration13.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJan 30, 2018 - May 06, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)10.1%
Avg win$697
Avg loss$6,161

Ratios

W:L ratio1.50
Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Sortino Ratio-0.32
Calmar Ratio0.45

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life432.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-155.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$6,161
Avg Win$697
# Winners610
Sum Trade PL (losers)$283,408
Sum Trade PL (winners)$425,219
Num Months Winners18
# Losers46
% Winners93.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table28

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19990.60
Avg Position Time (hrs)333.18
Avg Trade Length13.90
Last Trade Ago389

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.93
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.69
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.15
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats43.70
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.73
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.59
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.42
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean5221.93
SD10441.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df47
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.48
Sortino ratio9376.32
Upside Potential Ratio9377.25
Upside part of mean5222.45
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD10441.50
Downside SD0.56
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms29
N of observations48
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion5221.93
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion10441.45
Covariance1262.63
r0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)17823.89
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2396.93
Mean Square Error88399696
DF error46
t(b)3.46
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.46
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7451.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta28195.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12846.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8052.93
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)-2396.93
Mean0.34
SD7.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df47
t0.09
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.02
Sortino ratio0.06
Upside Potential Ratio0.61
Upside part of mean3.62
Downside part of mean-3.27
Upside SD5.05
Downside SD5.94
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms29
N of observations48
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion7.88
Covariance0.67
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)11.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.11
Mean Square Error55.60
DF error46
t(b)2.54
p(b)0.01
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta20.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-4.11
VaR(95%)0.98
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25
Mean27928.68
SD36081.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df1050
t1.55
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.75
Sortino ratio19078.84
Upside Potential Ratio19081.69
Upside part of mean27932.84
Downside part of mean-4.17
Upside SD36105.37
Downside SD1.46
N nonnegative terms354
N negative terms697
N of observations1051
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion27928.68
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion36081.29
Covariance1328.90
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)13787.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)21877.45
Mean Square Error1284761216
DF error1049
t(b)3.87
p(b)0.42
t(a)1.22
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6795.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta20778.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13372.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha57127.66
Treynor index (mean / b)2.03
Jensen alpha (a)21877.45
Mean0.34
SD15.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df1050
t0.04
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.54
Upside part of mean17.19
Downside part of mean-16.84
Upside SD11.22
Downside SD11.19
N nonnegative terms354
N negative terms697
N of observations1051
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion15.85
Covariance0.72
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)7.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.67
Mean Square Error246.07
DF error1049
t(b)4.85
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.34
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta10.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-18.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha12.75
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-2.67
VaR(95%)0.80
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.86
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean218000.73
SD101674.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.13
df130
t1.52
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.92
Sortino ratio69119.30
Upside Potential Ratio69122.90
Upside part of mean218012.06
Downside part of mean-11.32
Upside SD102177.58
Downside SD3.15
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms112
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion218000.73
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion101674.88
Covariance10064.78
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)38966.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)174476.55
Mean Square Error10022685696
DF error129
t(b)2.26
p(b)0.38
t(a)1.22
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4784.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta73149.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-108236.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha457189.41
Treynor index (mean / b)5.59
Jensen alpha (a)174476.55
Mean24.20
SD38.75
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df130
t0.44
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.39
Sortino ratio0.97
Upside Potential Ratio3.98
Upside part of mean99.02
Downside part of mean-74.82
Upside SD29.57
Downside SD24.85
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms112
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion24.20
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion38.75
Covariance3.85
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)14.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)9.72
Mean Square Error1455.94
DF error129
t(b)2.25
p(b)0.38
t(a)0.18
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.75
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta27.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-97.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha117.25
Treynor index (mean / b)1.65
Jensen alpha (a)9.72
VaR(95%)0.98
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.30

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations48
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.09
Maximum20884
Mean of quarter 10.83
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41741.79
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.46
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high2985.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.42
Number of observations1051
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum66626
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 4427.05
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low174
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high188
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high597.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum66626
Mean of quarter 10.83
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 43304.21
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.73
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high5191.76
Extreme Value Index (moments method)3.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.11
Quartile 30.37
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.34
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations48
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.98
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.10
Median0.78
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.10
Mean of quarter 20.78
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.90
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-459992416
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)827
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.86
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.46
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.85
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)365170
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)33337647104
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)33338296320
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs33338296320
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal33686288384

Trading record

Placed 2787 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/JPY long1350Sep 19, 2014Aug 21, 2025$2,247
EUR/USD long1600Aug 18, 2014Aug 21, 2025($263,162)
GBP/CHF long100Sep 19, 2014Sep 19, 2014$245
EUR/JPY long6750May 2, 2014Sep 19, 2014$46
GBP/CHF long150Sep 4, 2014Sep 4, 2014$175
GBP/CHF short550Aug 22, 2014Sep 3, 2014$363
GBP/CHF short150Aug 19, 2014Aug 19, 2014$218
GBP/CHF short750Aug 18, 2014Aug 19, 2014$1,182
GBP/CHF long150Aug 17, 2014Aug 18, 2014$318
GBP/CHF short700Aug 14, 2014Aug 15, 2014$1,023
EUR/USD long900Aug 13, 2014Aug 15, 2014$380
GBP/CHF short3200Jun 9, 2014Aug 14, 2014$6,055
EUR/USD long200Jun 30, 2014Jul 1, 2014$77
EUR/USD long1000Jun 25, 2014Jun 27, 2014$436
EUR/USD long2150Jun 9, 2014Jun 25, 2014$4,188
EUR/USD long150Jun 6, 2014Jun 9, 2014$238
EUR/USD long100Jun 6, 2014Jun 6, 2014$132
GBP/CHF long100Jun 6, 2014Jun 6, 2014$153
EUR/USD long500Jun 5, 2014Jun 5, 2014$644
EUR/USD long2650May 16, 2014Jun 5, 2014$2,231
GBP/CHF short250May 23, 2014May 23, 2014$397
GBP/CHF short550May 20, 2014May 22, 2014$451
EUR/USD long250May 15, 2014May 16, 2014$306
EUR/USD long250May 14, 2014May 15, 2014$428
GBP/CHF long200May 14, 2014May 14, 2014$209
GBP/CHF long100May 14, 2014May 14, 2014$188
GBP/CHF short400May 13, 2014May 14, 2014$479
AUD/CHF long350May 12, 2014May 13, 2014$615
GBP/CHF short200May 12, 2014May 12, 2014$247
EUR/JPY long650Apr 30, 2014May 2, 2014$5

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.