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Sine Timore

Forex · Started Oct 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.6%
Max Drawdown
35.3%
Trades
50
Win Trades
32.0%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
1.2%

About this strategy

Backtest results - available on developer's website

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201235.82.2-13.520.0
2013-14.0-8.5-2.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-23.5
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/2/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age169 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades50
# Profitable16
% Profitable32.0%
Avg trade duration1.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown35.3%
drawdown periodDec 12, 2012 - March 03, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.6%
Avg win$326
Avg loss$135

Ratios

W:L ratio1.13
Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Sortino Ratio-0.50
Calmar Ratio0.16

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life426.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-438.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity54.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss40.0%
Chance of 20% account loss6.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$135
Avg Win$326
# Winners16
Sum Trade PL (losers)$4,601
Sum Trade PL (winners)$5,213
Num Months Winners2
# Losers34
% Winners32.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table168

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1534.30
Avg Position Time (hrs)25.57
Avg Trade Length1.10
Last Trade Ago4936

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index1.73

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades39.34
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.57
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats20.98
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.42
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.18
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.04
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.14
df34
t0.25
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.29
Sortino ratio0.39
Upside Potential Ratio1.64
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms33
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error33
t(b)-0.76
p(b)0.77
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.01
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df34
t0.09
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio0.12
Upside Potential Ratio1.35
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms33
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.01
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error33
t(b)-0.74
p(b)0.77
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.02
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.14
df784
t0.25
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.81
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms750
N of observations785
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error783
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.65
t(a)0.29
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0.01
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df784
t0.15
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Sortino ratio0.14
Upside Potential Ratio3.70
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms750
N of observations785
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error783
t(b)-0.36
p(b)0.64
t(a)0.19
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.55
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.48
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6679086999011328
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.38983673281668e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.38
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-4.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations785
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low44
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high35
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.23
Quartile 10.23
Median0.23
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.09
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396220864
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)81
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.34
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.60
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 47 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD short40Feb 27, 2013Feb 27, 2013($301)
EUR/USD long40Jan 29, 2013Jan 31, 2013$263
EUR/USD short40Jan 29, 2013Jan 29, 2013($145)
EUR/USD long30Jan 24, 2013Jan 29, 2013$207
EUR/USD short30Jan 22, 2013Jan 22, 2013($139)
EUR/USD long20Jan 17, 2013Jan 18, 2013($150)
EUR/USD short30Jan 15, 2013Jan 17, 2013($139)
EUR/USD short30Jan 15, 2013Jan 15, 2013($135)
EUR/USD short30Jan 9, 2013Jan 10, 2013($163)
EUR/USD long30Jan 7, 2013Jan 9, 2013($102)
AUD/USD short60Jan 2, 2013Jan 3, 2013($174)
EUR/USD long40Dec 26, 2012Dec 28, 2012($182)
EUR/USD short40Dec 24, 2012Dec 26, 2012($178)
EUR/USD long50Dec 24, 2012Dec 24, 2012($202)
EUR/USD short30Dec 20, 2012Dec 24, 2012($88)
EUR/USD long60Dec 20, 2012Dec 20, 2012($194)
GBP/USD long40Dec 14, 2012Dec 19, 2012$529
EUR/USD short50Dec 14, 2012Dec 14, 2012($146)
EUR/USD long50Dec 14, 2012Dec 14, 2012($176)
GBP/USD long60Dec 13, 2012Dec 13, 2012($221)
EUR/USD short50Dec 13, 2012Dec 13, 2012($187)
EUR/USD long50Dec 10, 2012Dec 12, 2012$570
EUR/USD long70Dec 6, 2012Dec 6, 2012($197)
EUR/USD long90Dec 5, 2012Dec 5, 2012($65)
EUR/USD long70Nov 28, 2012Nov 30, 2012$738
EUR/USD long40Nov 21, 2012Nov 23, 2012$508
EUR/USD long50Nov 20, 2012Nov 20, 2012($157)
EUR/USD short80Nov 19, 2012Nov 19, 2012($155)
EUR/USD short50Nov 16, 2012Nov 18, 2012($164)
EUR/USD short50Nov 16, 2012Nov 16, 2012$24

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.