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GREEN FOREX

Forex · Started Jun 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.5%
Max Drawdown
89.8%
Trades
240
Win Trades
74.2%
Profit Factor
2
Win Months
10.5%

About this strategy

This Software trade a small number of currency pairs using a high probabillity trading strategy based on fundamentals, price action and overall economic conditions. Our goal is to protect capital and grow slowly. In any case, the maximum loss per trade should be no more than 50 pips. If for any reason ( technical or other) the loss goes beyond 50 pips, it is strongly advised to cut the trade. Software strategy is based on the use of momentum and breaking resistance and support. We use Fibonacci retracements, trends, and Moving Averages Time of investment is short term.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20128.911.58.05.7-7.513.69.058.9
20136.525.2-70.6-15.5198.796.618.20.00.00.00.00.0129.7
20140.00.00.00.00.0-1.2-0.00.30.50.20.6-0.00.4
2015-0.40.10.00.20.3-0.1-0.70.00.00.00.00.0-0.5
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/16/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$4,316
Age173 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades240
# Profitable178
% Profitable74.2%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown89.8%
drawdown periodMarch 08, 2013 - April 02, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)9.5%
Avg win$151
Avg loss$220

Ratios

W:L ratio1.97
Sharpe Ratio0.27
Sortino Ratio0.70
Calmar Ratio0.68

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life466.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-210.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$220
Avg Win$151
# Winners178
Sum Trade PL (losers)$13,623
Sum Trade PL (winners)$26,834
Num Months Winners19
# Losers62
% Winners74.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table172

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1410.25
Avg Position Time (hrs)23.50
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago4809

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.05
Treynor Index1.23

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat1.27
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.31
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.47
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.68
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.52
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.91
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.39
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.30

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.59
SD0.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df42
t1.50
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio2.16
Upside Potential Ratio2.81
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms30
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.74
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.52
Mean Square Error0.56
DF error41
t(b)0.35
p(b)0.36
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.41
Treynor index (mean / b)4.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
Mean0.37
SD0.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df42
t1.10
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.61
Sortino ratio0.97
Upside Potential Ratio1.58
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms30
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.63
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error41
t(b)0.48
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.78
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.05
Treynor index (mean / b)2.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.24
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.65
SD0.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df940
t1.51
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio1.60
Upside Potential Ratio4.50
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-1.18
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms191
N negative terms750
N of observations941
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.65
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.81
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error0.66
DF error939
t(b)0.40
p(b)0.35
t(a)1.46
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.47
Treynor index (mean / b)18.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.63
Mean0.37
SD0.73
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df940
t0.96
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio0.79
Upside Potential Ratio3.55
Upside part of mean1.64
Downside part of mean-1.27
Upside SD0.56
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms191
N negative terms750
N of observations941
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.73
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.53
DF error939
t(b)0.54
p(b)0.30
t(a)0.91
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)8.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.92
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6821467312357376
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.21728771772374e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations43
Minimum0.49
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum2.07
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.25
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations941
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.99
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low127
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high198
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.52
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.52
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.52
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.71
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.77
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-507707520
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)25
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.88
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.49
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.93
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.67
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.87
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.49
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.59
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1066 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD short210Jul 3, 2013Jul 7, 2013$2,432
EUR/JPY short150Jul 1, 2013Jul 2, 2013($3)
GBP/JPY short100Jul 1, 2013Jul 2, 2013$0
AUD/USD short100Jul 1, 2013Jul 2, 2013$536
GBP/USD short69.06000137Jun 28, 2013Jun 28, 2013$94
AUD/USD short293.50000381Jun 24, 2013Jun 28, 2013$2,472
GBP/USD short86.31999969Jun 24, 2013Jun 24, 2013($406)
USD/CAD long120.85000038Jun 24, 2013Jun 24, 2013$147
EUR/USD short86.31999969Jun 10, 2013Jun 24, 2013$850
USD/JPY long172.6499939Jun 9, 2013Jun 10, 2013$3
USD/JPY short224.44000244Jun 7, 2013Jun 9, 2013($8)
GBP/USD long120.85000038May 15, 2013Jun 7, 2013$3,973
USD/CAD long120.85000038May 10, 2013May 15, 2013$716
USD/JPY long138.12000275Apr 8, 2013May 10, 2013$15
EUR/JPY long103.59000206Apr 10, 2013Apr 24, 2013($11)
CAD/JPY long69.06000137Apr 10, 2013Apr 15, 2013($3)
CHF/JPY long43.15999985Apr 10, 2013Apr 11, 2013$0
GBP/JPY long34.53000069Apr 10, 2013Apr 11, 2013$1
CHF/JPY long69.06000137Apr 9, 2013Apr 10, 2013$3
CAD/JPY long43.15999985Apr 8, 2013Apr 9, 2013$2
EUR/USD short86.31999969Apr 8, 2013Apr 8, 2013($243)
USD/JPY long189.90999222Mar 24, 2013Apr 5, 2013$6
EUR/USD short215.80999374Mar 21, 2013Mar 24, 2013($2,861)
AUD/USD short129.49000359Mar 21, 2013Mar 22, 2013$116
GBP/USD short69.06000137Mar 21, 2013Mar 21, 2013$30
EUR/USD short25.89999914Mar 21, 2013Mar 21, 2013$18
GBP/USD short103.59000206Mar 21, 2013Mar 21, 2013$96
NZD/USD short138.12000275Mar 21, 2013Mar 21, 2013$92
EUR/USD short34.53000069Mar 21, 2013Mar 21, 2013$39
EUR/USD short198.54999542Mar 20, 2013Mar 21, 2013$374

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.