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Spy 2x

Stocks · Started May 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.4%
Max Drawdown
27.3%
Trades
125
Win Trades
52.8%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
11.0%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20125.90.1-4.20.28.09.35.1-3.821.4
20136.2-1.94.53.03.90.66.1-0.52.85.4-1.4-0.331.9
2014-4.0-7.4-1.7-3.62.40.0-4.2-1.8-4.10.6-2.3-1.0-24.3
20159.4-5.63.2-2.3-1.3-2.12.6-0.5-0.5-0.50.0-0.51.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/7/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age174 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades125
# Profitable66
% Profitable52.8%
Avg trade duration5.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.3%
drawdown periodOct 23, 2013 - Dec 09, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)1.4%
Avg win$551
Avg loss$423

Ratios

W:L ratio1.46
Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Sortino Ratio-0.07
Calmar Ratio0.51

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life453.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-441.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity33.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$423
Avg Win$551
# Winners66
Sum Trade PL (losers)$24,941
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,343
Num Months Winners20
# Losers59
% Winners52.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct155

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table173

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8106.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)135.12
Avg Trade Length5.60
Last Trade Ago4057

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.06

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.37
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.21
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.63
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.34
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.13
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df61
t1.44
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio1.34
Upside Potential Ratio3.06
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms41
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error60
t(b)-0.64
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.57
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.06
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df61
t1.35
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.45
Sortino ratio1.20
Upside Potential Ratio2.92
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms41
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error60
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.72
t(a)1.46
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df1367
t1.77
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.63
Sortino ratio1.28
Upside Potential Ratio7.52
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms336
N negative terms1032
N of observations1368
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1366
t(b)1.52
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.63
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)4.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.73
df1367
t1.68
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio1.20
Upside Potential Ratio7.43
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms336
N negative terms1032
N of observations1368
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1366
t(b)1.52
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.56
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)4.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.90
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6808047150170112
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.34420094369501e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations62
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-6.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations1368
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low334
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high333
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-483961152
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)412
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.70
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.03
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 146 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SSO long800Jul 28, 2015Jul 28, 2015$699
SSO long800Jun 23, 2015Jun 24, 2015($493)
SDS long2000Jun 22, 2015Jun 23, 2015$115
SSO long800Jun 19, 2015Jun 19, 2015($165)
SDS long1400Jun 18, 2015Jun 18, 2015($145)
SSO long400Jun 18, 2015Jun 18, 2015$140
SDS long1400Jun 17, 2015Jun 17, 2015$247
SSO long790Jun 16, 2015Jun 16, 2015$444
SSO long395Jun 1, 2015Jun 12, 2015($446)
SDS long330Apr 20, 2015May 8, 2015($165)
SDS long660Apr 7, 2015Apr 15, 2015($434)
SDS long330Mar 26, 2015Apr 6, 2015($208)
SDS long660Mar 20, 2015Mar 25, 2015$314
SSO long410Mar 17, 2015Mar 18, 2015$609
SDS long320Feb 18, 2015Mar 10, 2015$192
SDS long960Feb 2, 2015Feb 13, 2015($1,423)
SDS long640Jan 28, 2015Jan 29, 2015($5)
SDS long620Jan 23, 2015Jan 27, 2015$338
SSO long440Jan 20, 2015Jan 22, 2015$776
SDS long620Jan 13, 2015Jan 14, 2015$518
SDS long1020Dec 23, 2014Jan 6, 2015$963
SDS long1040Dec 9, 2014Dec 17, 2014$118
SDS long520Dec 1, 2014Dec 5, 2014($265)
SDS long520Oct 31, 2014Nov 18, 2014($530)
SDS long520Oct 23, 2014Oct 28, 2014($307)
SSO long300Oct 17, 2014Oct 21, 2014$701
SDS long520Oct 16, 2014Oct 17, 2014($681)
SDS long520Oct 13, 2014Oct 15, 2014$593
SSO long600Oct 2, 2014Oct 7, 2014($176)
SDS long600Sep 29, 2014Oct 1, 2014$343

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.