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Tantra Trader

Futures · Started Mar 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
780
Win Trades
53.1%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
12.7%

About this strategy

Change of Strategy effective 09.12.2013 Tantra Trader is designed to target sustainable returns over longer time horizons and all attempts would be made to keep volatility of the system at reasonable levels. System uses a conservative leverage with predefined stops. Targets may be revised upward or downward, however stops would only be revised upward from the initial levels. Recommended Capital to implement strategy: USD 50000 Threshold Minimum Capital to implement strategy: USD 30000 Strategy seek to identify short to medium trends. It is mainly based on Price action and Candle patterns. Though mostly it tries to cover the subsequent legs of an already established trend but at times would also experiment with upcoming trend inversions. System at times may experience some churning of positions, when the trends are being established and would attempt to ride a cleared trend. Each trade is initiated with 1 lot, covered with a stoploss. At a given time a maximum of three trades or lots would be in place. The stoploss on each position would be primarily based on ATR and would have secondary inputs from classic S/R, MAs, Fibo Levels and Trend Lines. the combined risk profile at a given time for all the positions may be upto USD 5000 (10 percent) and for individual positions may vary between 3-5 percent. System is manually traded and all signals are discretionary. The underlying theme of the trade initiation are as: 1. Risk to Reward 2. Absolute risk to equity 3. Moderate leverage 4. General alignment with broader market sentiment 5. Cross asset class comparisons for trend The entry and exit is governed by the following: 1. 4 hour candles 2. 1 hour candles 3. Candle patterns 4. Parabolic SAR 5. Classic support and resistance levels 6. Fibonacci 7. RSI divergences In addition, exit is also governed by the sudden news flow and disturbances in cross asset performance syncrhonisation.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20121.87.1-3.112.19.412.67.1-2.7-2.6-7.437.0
20134.0-5.9-6.34.24.51.93.52.65.67.4-7.516.932.6
20144.45.2-21.022.52.4-2.90.11.53.1-4.9-2.0-27.6-25.3
2015-31.2-143.7-170.7-16.7-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.1-174.5
2016-1.1-1.1-0.3-0.1-0.0-0.6-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.30.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/27/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age176 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades780
# Profitable414
% Profitable53.1%
Avg trade duration1.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodFeb 11, 2015 - March 17, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$496
Avg loss$628

Ratios

W:L ratio0.89
Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Sortino Ratio-0.53
Calmar Ratio-0.51

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life437.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-238.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-23.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)719
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$628
Avg Win$496
# Winners414
Sum Trade PL (losers)$229,887
Sum Trade PL (winners)$205,444
Num Months Winners22
# Losers366
% Winners53.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table36

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1688.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)28.15
Avg Trade Length1.20
Last Trade Ago3832

Regression

Alpha0
Beta104637.36
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats0.03
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean617.15
SD1098.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.55
df37
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.66
Sortino ratio912.22
Upside Potential Ratio913.20
Upside part of mean617.81
Downside part of mean-0.66
Upside SD1098.61
Downside SD0.68
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms13
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion617.15
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion1098.63
Covariance-12.18
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1252.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)764.52
Mean Square Error1224820
DF error36
t(b)-0.68
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4995.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2489.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-571.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2100.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.49
Jensen alpha (a)764.52
Mean-0.81
SD7.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.11
df37
t-0.20
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio-0.14
Upside Potential Ratio0.50
Upside part of mean2.82
Downside part of mean-3.63
Upside SD4.26
Downside SD5.66
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms13
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion-0.81
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion7.17
Covariance-0.02
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.81
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.61
Mean Square Error52.87
DF error36
t(b)-0.15
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.14
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-26.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta22.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)-0.61
VaR(95%)0.97
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
Mean878.29
SD951.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df1097
t1.65
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio704.30
Upside Potential Ratio707.22
Upside part of mean881.93
Downside part of mean-3.64
Upside SD951.82
Downside SD1.25
N nonnegative terms439
N negative terms659
N of observations1098
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion878.29
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion951.07
Covariance-0.69
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-49.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1479.33
Mean Square Error905327
DF error1096
t(b)-0.20
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.66
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-528.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta428.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-162.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1931.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.61
Jensen alpha (a)884.47
Mean-0.68
SD9.97
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df1097
t-0.12
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio1.29
Upside part of mean9.50
Downside part of mean-10.18
Upside SD6.69
Downside SD7.39
N nonnegative terms439
N negative terms659
N of observations1098
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.68
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion9.97
Covariance0.01
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.74
Mean Square Error99.46
DF error1096
t(b)0.20
p(b)0.50
t(a)-0.13
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.74
VaR(95%)0.59
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.66
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean5604.68
SD2392.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.33
df171
t1.66
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.11
Sortino ratio1788.63
Upside Potential Ratio1794.65
Upside part of mean5623.55
Downside part of mean-18.86
Upside SD2404.86
Downside SD3.13
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms105
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion5604.68
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion2392.77
Covariance-3.98
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-271.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)5630.22
Mean Square Error5757930
DF error170
t(b)-0.18
p(b)0.51
t(a)1.66
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3263.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2720.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1074.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha12335
Treynor index (mean / b)-20.65
Jensen alpha (a)5630.22
Mean-6.29
SD25.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.25
df171
t-0.18
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio-0.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.91
Upside part of mean54.27
Downside part of mean-60.56
Upside SD16.89
Downside SD18.66
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms105
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion-6.29
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion25.24
Covariance0.02
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-6.39
Mean Square Error640.86
DF error170
t(b)0.07
p(b)0.50
t(a)-0.18
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-30.46
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta32.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-77.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha64.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.55
Jensen alpha (a)-6.39
VaR(95%)0.90
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.93
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.31

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations38
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.03
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1956
Mean of quarter 10.79
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 4196.60
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.52
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high978.60
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1098
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1278
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 411.24
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low133
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high113
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high25.90
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations172
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1278
Mean of quarter 10.79
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 466.39
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.66
Number of outliers high22
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high128.79
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.12
Quartile 30.17
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations57
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)34
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.29
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.55
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.55
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.56
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.49
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.49
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-3.53
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.91
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.07

Trading record

Placed 998 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
KC K5long1Feb 9, 2015Apr 16, 2015($12,327)
QGC J5long6Jan 28, 2015Apr 1, 2015($43,918)
QNG J5long1Feb 13, 2015Mar 27, 2015($788)
QSI H5long1Feb 10, 2015Feb 13, 2015$1,567
QNG J5long1Feb 5, 2015Feb 11, 2015$2,182
S K5long1Feb 10, 2015Feb 10, 2015($208)
QCL J5long1Feb 2, 2015Feb 3, 2015$1,832
QHG H5long1Jan 28, 2015Feb 2, 2015$730
ES H5short1Feb 2, 2015Feb 2, 2015$830
QCL J5long1Jan 30, 2015Feb 2, 2015$3,562
QCL H5long1Jan 27, 2015Feb 2, 2015$3,872
JY H5short2Jan 26, 2015Jan 30, 2015($1,616)
KC H5long1Jan 28, 2015Jan 30, 2015($2,896)
ES H5short1Jan 27, 2015Jan 29, 2015$1,205
QNG H5long5Jan 22, 2015Jan 28, 2015($1,330)
QCL H5long1Jan 26, 2015Jan 27, 2015($528)
QCL H5long4Jan 22, 2015Jan 23, 2015($4,322)
AD H5long1Jan 21, 2015Jan 22, 2015($1,948)
KC H5long1Jan 20, 2015Jan 22, 2015($4,152)
QNG G5long1Jan 16, 2015Jan 22, 2015($3,508)
QNG H5long1Jan 21, 2015Jan 22, 2015$122
QCL H5short1Jan 20, 2015Jan 20, 2015$512
JY H5short1Jan 16, 2015Jan 19, 2015$80
QSI H5long1Jan 8, 2015Jan 13, 2015$1,517
S H5long1Jan 6, 2015Jan 8, 2015$480
KC H5long1Jan 7, 2015Jan 8, 2015$930
QNG G5short1Jan 2, 2015Jan 8, 2015$1,342
QSI H5long1Jan 2, 2015Jan 8, 2015$2,792
QCL G5long2Jan 2, 2015Jan 5, 2015($6,016)
S H5long1Dec 30, 2014Jan 2, 2015($1,571)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.