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Parcours Commodities

Futures · Started Sep 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.6%
Max Drawdown
24.7%
Trades
876
Win Trades
52.4%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
22.2%

About this strategy

Parcours Commodities, is a discretionary portfolio based on seasonality. Our approach is spread trading in order to reduce risk. Occasionally if seasonality is strong we have long or short positions on single commodities.
We follow strict rule for position size, take profits and stop losses.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011-0.36.5-12.413.65.6
20121.71.210.68.6-1.33.93.67.67.9-0.42.74.863.4
20138.8-3.5-5.2-0.15.03.22.2-5.13.41.82.22.215.1
2014-6.12.30.91.90.04.10.92.73.28.81.8-2.918.3
20150.43.7-1.7-4.90.53.7-5.01.82.7-17.519.1-2.0-2.9
2016-3.1-4.4-0.1-0.31.31.9-3.71.7-0.10.9-2.2-4.4-12.1
2017-0.2-0.8-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.20.00.00.0-2.4
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/29/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age182 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades876
# Profitable459
% Profitable52.4%
Avg trade duration9.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown24.7%
drawdown periodMay 15, 2012 - May 28, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)4.6%
Avg win$2,416
Avg loss$2,443

Ratios

W:L ratio1.09
Sharpe Ratio0.24
Sortino Ratio0.38
Calmar Ratio1.35

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life553.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-462.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity25.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss20.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,443
Avg Win$2,416
# Winners459
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,018,881
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,108,768
Num Months Winners41
# Losers417
% Winners52.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table181

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)14123.73
Avg Position Time (hrs)235.40
Avg Trade Length9.80
Last Trade Ago3466

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.39

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades22.84
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-2.45
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.41
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.46
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.49
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.37
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df80
t3.11
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio3.01
Upside Potential Ratio4.65
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms42
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error79
t(b)-0.64
p(b)0.74
t(a)3.13
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.12
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.16
df80
t3.03
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio2.81
Upside Potential Ratio4.45
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms42
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error79
t(b)-0.57
p(b)0.71
t(a)3.04
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.79
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.13
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.18
df1771
t3.07
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio1.95
Upside Potential Ratio7.62
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms594
N negative terms1178
N of observations1772
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1770
t(b)-0.20
p(b)0.50
t(a)3.08
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-55.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.12
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df1771
t2.94
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.89
Sortino ratio1.83
Upside Potential Ratio7.46
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms594
N negative terms1178
N of observations1772
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1770
t(b)-0.20
p(b)0.50
t(a)2.95
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-53.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6813569941241856
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.15406154683499e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations81
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations1772
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low146
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high186
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations59
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-460975488
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)13
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.18
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.25
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1835 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QRB U7short1Feb 16, 2017Mar 15, 2017$5,784
QRB N7long1Feb 16, 2017Mar 15, 2017($6,531)
LE J7long3Dec 5, 2016Dec 23, 2016$6,366
LE G7short3Dec 5, 2016Dec 23, 2016($9,304)
HE M7long2Dec 15, 2016Dec 16, 2016$694
HE G7short2Dec 15, 2016Dec 16, 2016($2,036)
LE J7short3Dec 5, 2016Dec 5, 2016($54)
SM H7long1Nov 14, 2016Nov 23, 2016$552
BO H7short1Nov 14, 2016Nov 23, 2016($2,006)
QRB H7long1Nov 2, 2016Nov 21, 2016($848)
QHO H7short1Nov 2, 2016Nov 21, 2016($1,516)
QNG H7long3Oct 27, 2016Nov 14, 2016($5,534)
QNG F7short3Oct 27, 2016Nov 14, 2016$6,746
W N7long3Nov 8, 2016Nov 14, 2016($2,387)
W K7short3Nov 8, 2016Nov 14, 2016$2,376
QCL J7long3Sep 21, 2016Nov 10, 2016($2,074)
QCL F7short3Sep 21, 2016Nov 10, 2016$2,966
HE M7long1Nov 2, 2016Nov 7, 2016($108)
LE M7short1Nov 2, 2016Nov 7, 2016$782
LE J7long6Sep 20, 2016Nov 1, 2016($8,908)
LE Z6short6Sep 20, 2016Nov 1, 2016$10,302
SM N7short3Oct 3, 2016Nov 1, 2016($2,304)
SM Z6long3Oct 3, 2016Nov 1, 2016$1,776
GF X6short2Aug 25, 2016Sep 6, 2016$7,953
GF U6long2Aug 25, 2016Sep 6, 2016($10,722)
S K7long2Aug 25, 2016Sep 1, 2016($1,841)
S X6short4Aug 25, 2016Sep 1, 2016$2,818
C Z6long2Aug 25, 2016Aug 26, 2016($91)
W H7short2Aug 22, 2016Aug 26, 2016$1,122
C H7long2Aug 22, 2016Aug 26, 2016($941)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.