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ALGORITHMIC

Futures · Started Aug 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
8487
Win Trades
78.4%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
8.2%

About this strategy

If youre looking to trade the futures mkts with the present volatility, you must be focused on limiting drawdowns and taking reasonable ST trading profits. Account will use money mgmt stops that are contained and controlled.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011-6.4-88.8-238.7-208.8-12.8-86.2
2012715.7-52.7-141.0-502.4-364.2-47.7-69.4-76.4-1178.330.755.525.74836.7
2013-44.0133.329.970.051.013.3-50.6-45.277.651.6-27.468.4340.9
201467.223.4-76.398.2-21.2-357.1-50.5-3.6-23.4-90.2-16.7-3.1-433.9
2015-6.9-25.7-50.8-4.4-32.7-366.6-37.3-21.3-54.3-1.0-0.6-0.6
2016-0.0-0.3-0.0-0.3-0.2-0.5-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.20.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/21/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age183 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades8487
# Profitable6651
% Profitable78.4%
Avg trade duration11.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJune 09, 2014 - May 12, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$4,176
Avg loss$12,292

Ratios

W:L ratio1.23
Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Sortino Ratio-0.01
Calmar Ratio1.57

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.19
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life577.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-2986.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)42.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)454
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$12,292
Avg Win$4,176
# Winners6651
Sum Trade PL (losers)$22,567,812
Sum Trade PL (winners)$27,772,020
Num Months Winners0
# Losers1836
% Winners78.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table3

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)698.68
Avg Position Time (hrs)11.65
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago3924

Regression

Alpha0
Beta47.38
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.09
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.18
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.06
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades50.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.09
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats81.71
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.40
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.32
SD0.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.48
df66
t3.54
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.35
Sortino ratio3.23
Upside Potential Ratio4.37
Upside part of mean1.79
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.86
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms29
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion1.32
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.88
Covariance-0.01
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.34
Mean Square Error0.79
DF error65
t(b)-0.21
p(b)0.58
t(a)3.45
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.86
Jensen alpha (a)1.34
Mean0.92
SD0.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df66
t2.56
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.92
Sortino ratio1.69
Upside Potential Ratio2.78
Upside part of mean1.51
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.69
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms29
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.92
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.85
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.92
Mean Square Error0.73
DF error65
t(b)0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)2.47
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.66
Treynor index (mean / b)155.88
Jensen alpha (a)0.92
VaR(95%)0.28
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.35
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean1.40
SD0.98
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.43
df1473
t3.39
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.26
Sortino ratio2.14
Upside Potential Ratio6.89
Upside part of mean4.52
Downside part of mean-3.12
Upside SD0.73
Downside SD0.66
N nonnegative terms684
N negative terms790
N of observations1474
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion1.40
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.98
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.28
Mean Square Error0.96
DF error1472
t(b)-0.75
p(b)0.51
t(a)3.43
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.81
Jensen alpha (a)1.42
Mean0.91
SD1.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df1473
t2.17
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.74
Sortino ratio1.22
Upside Potential Ratio5.72
Upside part of mean4.29
Downside part of mean-3.37
Upside SD0.66
Downside SD0.75
N nonnegative terms684
N negative terms790
N of observations1474
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.91
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion1.00
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.93
Mean Square Error1.00
DF error1472
t(b)-0.65
p(b)0.51
t(a)2.20
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)-11.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.93
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6846452747730944
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.96698295106211e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations67
Minimum0.43
Quartile 11
Median1.06
Quartile 31.24
Maximum1.91
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.16
Mean of quarter 41.43
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.52
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.77
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-12.92
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations1474
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.55
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low155
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high142
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.39
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.16
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.22
Mean of quarter 40.52
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.78
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations80
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.85
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.52
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.60
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.33
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-338434112
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)337
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)35.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)35.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.56
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.45
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1892 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BAC long1000Sep 17, 2015Oct 28, 2015$855
GE long1000Sep 17, 2015Oct 5, 2015$565
LLY long1000Sep 17, 2015Sep 28, 2015($11,585)
HE V5short20Sep 18, 2015Sep 24, 2015$6,240
C Z5long800Sep 16, 2015Sep 21, 2015($150)
W Z5short80Sep 18, 2015Sep 20, 2015$5,485
QCL V5long50Sep 18, 2015Sep 18, 2015$26,600
ES Z5short100Sep 18, 2015Sep 18, 2015$9,200
QCL V5long100Sep 18, 2015Sep 18, 2015$22,200
ES Z5short150Sep 18, 2015Sep 18, 2015$1,300
QGC Z5short10Sep 18, 2015Sep 18, 2015$1,920
QCL V5long30Sep 18, 2015Sep 18, 2015$11,760
ES Z5short50Sep 18, 2015Sep 18, 2015$8,975
QGC Z5short90Sep 17, 2015Sep 18, 2015$1,980
HE V5short40Sep 17, 2015Sep 17, 2015$7,680
ES Z5short50Sep 17, 2015Sep 17, 2015$10,850
GF U5long20Sep 16, 2015Sep 17, 2015$840
QCL V5short10Sep 17, 2015Sep 17, 2015$3,720
QGC Z5short60Sep 16, 2015Sep 17, 2015$5,820
QCL V5short100Sep 16, 2015Sep 17, 2015$20,500
W Z5long20Sep 16, 2015Sep 17, 2015$1,340
S F6short300Sep 16, 2015Sep 16, 2015$12,600
HE V5short20Sep 15, 2015Sep 16, 2015$7,040
QCL V5short20Sep 15, 2015Sep 15, 2015$1,040
C Z5long200Sep 15, 2015Sep 15, 2015$23,400
C Z5long500Sep 14, 2015Sep 14, 2015$14,750
QCL V5long100Sep 14, 2015Sep 14, 2015$5,100
W Z5long100Sep 14, 2015Sep 14, 2015$6,700
QGC Z5long100Sep 14, 2015Sep 14, 2015$20,200
W Z5short20Sep 14, 2015Sep 14, 2015$90

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.