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SuperrPips

Forex · Started Jun 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.0%
Max Drawdown
48.3%
Trades
561
Win Trades
50.1%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
42.1%

About this strategy

This is a conservative swing trading system that adopts and combines both mechanical and discretionary approach to currency trading.
Current pairs trading are GBPJPY, EURJPY and CHFJPY.

Details:
1) System comes with stops and limits.
2) Recommended risk at less than 2% per trade.
3) Draw-down is managed and kept as low as possible.
4) Average of 12-20 trades a month.
5) Suitable for mid to long term investors/ traders.

** Hiatus from Dec 2013 to Mar 2017.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011-1.7-0.616.312.68.65.50.847.8
20129.6-2.36.21.5-0.66.9-5.4-3.8-4.55.29.0-2.619.2
2013-0.03.7-3.53.6-5.42.7-2.66.8-6.7-6.7-5.3-11.9-23.9
2014-1.7-1.2-0.8-1.2-1.2-1.3-0.6-0.70.3-1.11.1-0.9-8.9
2015-1.5-0.7-1.0-1.2-0.1-1.2-0.7-1.7-1.6-1.1-0.6-1.8-12.5
2016-1.1-3.4-1.4-3.2-0.2-3.8-1.7-1.5-2.10.21.20.0-15.6
2017-2.1-2.4-1.912.3-0.20.2-0.3-0.20.60.4-0.70.45.5
2018-1.3-0.5-0.41.0-0.10.40.4-0.00.6-0.30.5-0.6-0.3
2019-1.00.70.00.3-0.20.0-0.90.80.40.3-0.1-0.8
20200.0-0.4-0.2-0.10.0-0.1-0.70.00.0-0.3-0.1-0.5-2.1
20210.60.60.90.00.20.3-0.30.00.30.90.00.44.0
20220.1-0.11.22.2-0.21.80.40.01.30.7-1.8-1.24.5
2023-0.71.3-0.90.81.00.7-0.61.00.40.30.2-1.81.7
20241.20.50.10.60.20.4-0.9-1.4-0.41.70.20.32.6
20250.0-1.10.2-1.40.20.30.5-0.10.10.80.50.20.2
2026-0.50.00.8-0.1-0.00.40.3-0.7-0.4-0.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/9/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,015
Age186 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades561
# Profitable281
% Profitable50.1%
Avg trade duration18.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown48.3%
drawdown periodMarch 11, 2013 - April 18, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)2.0%
Avg win$170
Avg loss$133

Ratios

W:L ratio1.29
Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Sortino Ratio-0.20
Calmar Ratio0.73

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life490.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-72.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity84.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss25.0%
Chance of 20% account loss3.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)509
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)435

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$133
Avg Win$170
# Winners281
Sum Trade PL (losers)$37,160
Sum Trade PL (winners)$47,770
Num Months Winners88
# Losers280
% Winners50.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table184

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1123.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)18.72
Avg Trade Length0.80
Last Trade Ago3416

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.02
Treynor Index-0.17

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.95
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.66
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats31.53
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats23.30
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.35
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.16
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.96
df45
t1.92
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio2.04
Upside Potential Ratio3.62
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms18
N of observations46
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error44
t(b)-1.33
p(b)0.91
t(a)2.27
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.15
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df45
t1.80
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.92
Sortino ratio1.81
Upside Potential Ratio3.38
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms18
N of observations46
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.00
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error44
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.90
t(a)2.12
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.17
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.30
df1332
t2.56
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.30
Sortino ratio2.23
Upside Potential Ratio8.99
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms481
N negative terms852
N of observations1333
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1331
t(b)2.25
p(b)0.46
t(a)2.45
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)3.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.16
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.24
df1332
t2.44
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.24
Sortino ratio2.10
Upside Potential Ratio8.84
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms481
N negative terms852
N of observations1333
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1331
t(b)2.24
p(b)0.46
t(a)2.35
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)3.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.08
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.29
df171
t0.92
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.07
Sortino ratio2.28
Upside Potential Ratio10.62
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms87
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)3.06
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.08
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.27
df171
t0.90
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.04
Sortino ratio2.22
Upside Potential Ratio10.54
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms87
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)3.08
p(b)0.38
t(a)0.75
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)1.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations46
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1333
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low207
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high214
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.08
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations29
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1499
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.14
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.90
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.46
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.98

Trading record

Placed 965 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CHF/JPY long30Apr 25, 2017Apr 28, 2017$0
GBP/JPY long30Apr 25, 2017Apr 27, 2017$377
CHF/JPY short30Apr 24, 2017Apr 25, 2017($200)
GBP/JPY short30Apr 24, 2017Apr 25, 2017($178)
CHF/JPY long20Apr 17, 2017Apr 20, 2017$167
EUR/JPY long20Apr 17, 2017Apr 20, 2017$194
GBP/JPY long20Apr 17, 2017Apr 18, 2017$250
GBP/JPY long10Dec 18, 2013Dec 18, 2013$2
GBP/JPY short10Dec 17, 2013Dec 18, 2013($1)
EUR/JPY short30Dec 17, 2013Dec 17, 2013($1)
CHF/JPY long30Dec 16, 2013Dec 17, 2013($1)
EUR/JPY long30Dec 16, 2013Dec 17, 2013($1)
GBP/JPY short30Dec 11, 2013Dec 11, 2013($0)
CHF/JPY long30Dec 9, 2013Dec 11, 2013($1)
EUR/JPY long30Dec 9, 2013Dec 11, 2013($1)
GBP/JPY long30Dec 9, 2013Dec 9, 2013$1
GBP/JPY short30Dec 3, 2013Dec 8, 2013($2)
EUR/JPY short30Dec 3, 2013Dec 4, 2013($1)
CHF/JPY long30Dec 2, 2013Dec 3, 2013($1)
GBP/JPY long30Dec 2, 2013Dec 3, 2013($2)
EUR/JPY long30Dec 2, 2013Dec 3, 2013($1)
GBP/JPY long10Nov 27, 2013Nov 28, 2013$1
EUR/JPY long10Nov 27, 2013Nov 28, 2013$1
CHF/JPY long30Nov 27, 2013Nov 28, 2013$1
GBP/JPY short10Nov 25, 2013Nov 27, 2013($1)
CHF/JPY short30Nov 25, 2013Nov 26, 2013($2)
GBP/JPY short30Nov 18, 2013Nov 18, 2013$1
GBP/JPY long30Nov 11, 2013Nov 12, 2013($2)
CHF/JPY long30Nov 11, 2013Nov 11, 2013$1
EUR/JPY long30Nov 11, 2013Nov 11, 2013$1

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.