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WSS_Gold100oz

Futures · Started May 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
35.5%
Max Drawdown
32.8%
Trades
795
Win Trades
52.1%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
15.2%

About this strategy

Visit http://wallstreetcafe.ro/products-page/strategies/wss_gold100oz/
for more details and charts about this system.
--------------------------------------------------
Performance Details on 5 Years, 6 Months trading period:
( 7/31/2006 - 3/2/2012 )
Total Net Profit: $310,270.00
Profit Factor: 1.77
Total Number of Trades: 1205
Percent Profitable: 55.77%
Avg. Trade Net Profit: $257.49
Avg. Winning Trade: $1,064.35
Avg. Losing Trade: ($775.80)
Ratio Avg. Win:Avg. Loss: 1.37
Avg. Monthly Return: $5,009.75
Std. Deviation of Monthly Return: $7,596.44
Max. Drawdown (Intra-day Peak to Valley): Value ($29,750.00) - Date 09/26/11
Max. Drawdown (Trade Close to Trade Close): Value ($16,350.00) - Date 09/23/11

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20117.7-4.74.70.219.713.226.026.6132.7
2012-6.516.90.1-2.3-4.716.23.94.93.7-4.03.4-4.926.3
20133.33.5-3.08.77.0-5.34.08.60.05.52.4-0.538.4
2014-2.30.5-4.62.3-1.11.8-1.5-4.0-1.32.30.44.1-3.8
2015-1.4-1.4-5.1-1.3-3.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-12.2
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/2/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age187 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades795
# Profitable414
% Profitable52.1%
Avg trade duration1.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown32.8%
drawdown periodAug 22, 2011 - Sept 09, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)35.5%
Avg win$1,295
Avg loss$1,002

Ratios

W:L ratio1.40
Sharpe Ratio0.47
Sortino Ratio0.74
Calmar Ratio1.05

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life457.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)191.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)35.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity22.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss31.5%
Chance of 20% account loss4.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)384
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)958
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)844

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,002
Avg Win$1,295
# Winners414
Sum Trade PL (losers)$381,835
Sum Trade PL (winners)$536,282
Num Months Winners29
# Losers381
% Winners52.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table185

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2660.18
Avg Position Time (hrs)44.34
Avg Trade Length1.80
Last Trade Ago4118

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-1.36

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.05
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.20
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats80.63
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats59.50
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.44
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.67
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.37
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.50
df48
t3.09
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio6.63
Upside Potential Ratio8.41
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms31
N negative terms18
N of observations49
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error47
t(b)-0.69
p(b)0.75
t(a)3.14
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.77
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
Mean0.34
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.50
df48
t3.07
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.51
Sortino ratio5.95
Upside Potential Ratio7.72
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms31
N negative terms18
N of observations49
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error47
t(b)-0.70
p(b)0.76
t(a)3.13
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.59
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.35
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.69
df1429
t3.46
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.66
Sortino ratio2.76
Upside Potential Ratio9.29
Upside part of mean1.18
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms730
N negative terms700
N of observations1430
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1428
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.52
t(a)3.50
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
Mean0.33
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.60
df1429
t3.26
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.56
Sortino ratio2.52
Upside Potential Ratio8.95
Upside part of mean1.17
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms730
N negative terms700
N of observations1430
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1428
t(b)-1.37
p(b)0.52
t(a)3.30
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.19
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.01
df171
t-2.14
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Sortino ratio-3.74
Upside Potential Ratio6.77
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms97
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.18
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)-1.57
p(b)0.56
t(a)-2.12
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)3.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.18
Mean-0.19
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.04
df171
t-2.16
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Sortino ratio-3.77
Upside Potential Ratio6.74
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms97
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.18
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)-1.57
p(b)0.56
t(a)-2.14
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)3.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.18
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations49
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations1430
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low61
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high101
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations57
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)18
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.77
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.42
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.21
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.74
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.80
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.58
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.49
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.49
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-22.15

Trading record

Placed 1325 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QGC M5long1May 29, 2015May 30, 2015$2
QGC M5short1May 29, 2015May 29, 2015$102
QGC M5long1May 28, 2015May 29, 2015$152
QGC M5short1May 26, 2015May 28, 2015($228)
QGC M5long1May 22, 2015May 26, 2015($2,398)
QGC M5short1May 21, 2015May 22, 2015$12
QGC M5long1May 20, 2015May 21, 2015$282
QGC M5short1May 19, 2015May 20, 2015$12
QGC M5long1May 15, 2015May 19, 2015($1,398)
QGC M5short1May 14, 2015May 15, 2015($508)
QGC M5long1May 13, 2015May 14, 2015$972
QGC M5short1May 13, 2015May 13, 2015($1,338)
QGC M5long1May 6, 2015May 13, 2015$352
QGC M5short1May 3, 2015May 6, 2015($1,388)
QGC M5long1Apr 30, 2015May 3, 2015($568)
QGC M5short1Apr 30, 2015Apr 30, 2015$2,162
QGC M5long1Apr 29, 2015Apr 30, 2015($568)
QGC M5short1Apr 29, 2015Apr 29, 2015($168)
QGC M5long1Apr 28, 2015Apr 29, 2015($538)
QGC M5short1Apr 28, 2015Apr 28, 2015($1,298)
QGC M5long1Apr 27, 2015Apr 28, 2015$1,632
QGC M5short1Apr 27, 2015Apr 27, 2015($338)
QGC M5long1Apr 26, 2015Apr 27, 2015$252
QGC M5short1Apr 23, 2015Apr 26, 2015$1,002
QGC M5long1Apr 21, 2015Apr 23, 2015($1,328)
QGC M5short1Apr 16, 2015Apr 21, 2015$302
QGC M5long1Apr 15, 2015Apr 16, 2015$122
QGC M5short1Apr 10, 2015Apr 15, 2015$172
QGC M5long1Apr 10, 2015Apr 10, 2015$102
QGC M5short1Apr 9, 2015Apr 10, 2015($1,038)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.