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WSS_EuroCurrency30M

Futures · Started Mar 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
8.7%
Max Drawdown
42.1%
Trades
421
Win Trades
49.4%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
8.7%

About this strategy

Visit http://www.wallstreetcafe.ro/products-page/strategies/
for more details about this system.
--------------------------------------------------
STO @EUM1 @ LIMIT 1.4148 (signal id=61407123) from 16.05.2011 should not have been filled, this signal was canceled later and replaced with a new signal, STO @ LIMIT 1.4204 ... these signals were not received by C2 because a problem at the datacenter and when the system got up again, it filled the last signal it received. So the 16.05.2011 trade should have been profitable.
-------------------------------------------------
WSS_EuroCurrency30M strategy is made for trading the Euro FX contract (EC) on 30 min time-frame,
using a custom session. This strategy enters both short and long positions, by a limit order and may only enter
once a day if the entry price is hit.
An exit strategy is also included, used for exiting the market before it
closes or make a trail stop.
-------------------------------------------------
I have suggested a $20000 account for this system, but for a smaller risk i recommend a $30000 account.
The maximum recorded Drawdown (Intra-day Peak to Valley) for this system was on 18.02.2010 and it was $11140.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011-9.429.049.0-10.0-25.221.40.6-0.8-17.17.126.0
20126.54.97.819.95.43.41.10.8-7.8-6.7-0.20.538.2
2013-11.113.81.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.02.7
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/11/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age189 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades421
# Profitable208
% Profitable49.4%
Avg trade duration11.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.1%
drawdown periodJune 01, 2011 - Jan 19, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)8.7%
Avg win$724
Avg loss$567

Ratios

W:L ratio1.25
Sharpe Ratio0.17
Sortino Ratio0.27
Calmar Ratio0.49

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life479.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-19.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)8.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity18.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)386
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$567
Avg Win$724
# Winners208
Sum Trade PL (losers)$120,778
Sum Trade PL (winners)$150,558
Num Months Winners17
# Losers213
% Winners49.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table187

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)662.65
Avg Position Time (hrs)11.04
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago4925

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.40

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades11.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.73
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats52.40
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.49
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.46
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df51
t1.58
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio1.91
Upside Potential Ratio3.12
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms37
N of observations52
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error50
t(b)0.82
p(b)0.21
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)0.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.20
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df51
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.62
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio2.62
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms37
N of observations52
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error50
t(b)1.03
p(b)0.15
t(a)1.17
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.22
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df1506
t2.14
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio1.69
Upside Potential Ratio7.10
Upside part of mean0.93
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms302
N negative terms1205
N of observations1507
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1505
t(b)1.92
p(b)0.47
t(a)2.07
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)3.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.20
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df1506
t1.94
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio1.48
Upside Potential Ratio6.86
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms302
N negative terms1205
N of observations1507
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error1505
t(b)1.99
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.87
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)2.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.2261199894741e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.40567014899591e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations52
Minimum0.83
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.50
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-17.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations1507
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low256
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high302
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.10
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)232
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.09
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.09
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 249 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EU H3long1Mar 14, 2013Mar 14, 2013$605
EU H3long1Mar 13, 2013Mar 13, 2013($1,433)
EU H3short1Mar 12, 2013Mar 12, 2013$305
EU H3long1Mar 11, 2013Mar 11, 2013$630
EU H3long1Mar 8, 2013Mar 8, 2013($571)
EU H3long1Mar 7, 2013Mar 7, 2013$1,417
EU H3short1Mar 5, 2013Mar 5, 2013($96)
EU H3long1Mar 1, 2013Mar 1, 2013($271)
EU H3long1Feb 28, 2013Feb 28, 2013($721)
EU H3short1Feb 25, 2013Feb 25, 2013$1,817
EU H3short1Feb 22, 2013Feb 22, 2013$580
EU H3long1Feb 20, 2013Feb 20, 2013($1,071)
EU H3long1Feb 19, 2013Feb 19, 2013$505
EU H3long1Feb 15, 2013Feb 15, 2013$267
EU H3long1Feb 14, 2013Feb 14, 2013($821)
EU H3short1Feb 13, 2013Feb 13, 2013$605
EU H3long1Feb 11, 2013Feb 11, 2013$217
EU H3short1Feb 8, 2013Feb 8, 2013$642
EU H3short1Feb 7, 2013Feb 7, 2013$1,742
EU H3long1Feb 6, 2013Feb 6, 2013($171)
EU H3long1Feb 5, 2013Feb 5, 2013$1,255
EU H3short1Feb 1, 2013Feb 1, 2013($158)
EU H3short1Jan 30, 2013Jan 30, 2013($433)
EU H3short1Jan 29, 2013Jan 29, 2013($71)
EU H3short1Jan 25, 2013Jan 25, 2013($996)
EU H3short1Jan 24, 2013Jan 24, 2013$42
EU H3long1Jan 23, 2013Jan 23, 2013$492
EU H3long1Jan 21, 2013Jan 22, 2013$442
EU H3short1Jan 18, 2013Jan 18, 2013$880
EU H3short1Jan 17, 2013Jan 17, 2013($821)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.