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Alphergence - O2C

Futures · Started Feb 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.5%
Max Drawdown
28.2%
Trades
950
Win Trades
52.8%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
13.3%

About this strategy

Please treat this as a Black Box System. No additional information will be provided.

DISCLAIMER- Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011-0.110.01.5-1.31.6-6.310.35.612.46.30.146.2
2012-3.53.2-5.74.5-7.0-6.94.9-4.9-5.52.2-0.44.9-14.5
2013-4.11.1-4.4-5.48.010.36.1-0.9-2.26.2-0.4-1.112.3
2014-3.1-0.41.9-10.83.010.40.34.54.2-7.00.7-3.7-1.7
2015-5.7-4.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-9.8
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/28/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age189 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades950
# Profitable502
% Profitable52.8%
Avg trade duration6.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown28.2%
drawdown periodDec 15, 2011 - May 02, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)5.5%
Avg win$741
Avg loss$732

Ratios

W:L ratio1.13
Sharpe Ratio0
Sortino Ratio-0.01
Calmar Ratio0.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life469.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-41.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity28.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$732
Avg Win$741
# Winners502
Sum Trade PL (losers)$327,997
Sum Trade PL (winners)$372,000
Num Months Winners25
# Losers448
% Winners52.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table188

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)400.45
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.67
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago4232

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades16.43
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.19
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats34
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.59
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.45
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df72
t1.74
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio1.59
Upside Potential Ratio3.18
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms48
N of observations73
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error71
t(b)-0.14
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.72
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.09
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df72
t1.62
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.45
Sortino ratio1.39
Upside Potential Ratio2.97
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms48
N of observations73
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error71
t(b)-0.17
p(b)0.57
t(a)1.61
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.10
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df2099
t1.99
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.60
Sortino ratio1.20
Upside Potential Ratio7.78
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms581
N negative terms1519
N of observations2100
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error2098
t(b)1.48
p(b)0.07
t(a)1.93
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)3.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.09
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df2099
t1.83
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio7.66
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms581
N negative terms1519
N of observations2100
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error2098
t(b)1.41
p(b)0.08
t(a)1.79
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)3.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.20919008738673e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.83114005188412e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations73
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations2100
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low425
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high430
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations56
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)504
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.83
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.98
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 544 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H5short3Feb 13, 2015Feb 13, 2015($1,299)
ES H5short3Feb 12, 2015Feb 12, 2015($1,487)
ES H5short3Feb 11, 2015Feb 11, 2015($774)
ES H5long3Feb 10, 2015Feb 10, 2015$1,101
ES H5long3Feb 9, 2015Feb 9, 2015($174)
ES H5long3Jan 30, 2015Jan 30, 2015($1,412)
ES H5long3Jan 29, 2015Jan 29, 2015$2,714
ES H5long3Jan 28, 2015Jan 28, 2015($6,737)
ES H5short3Jan 27, 2015Jan 27, 2015($812)
ES H5short3Jan 26, 2015Jan 26, 2015($1,562)
ES H5long3Jan 16, 2015Jan 16, 2015$4,326
ES H5long3Jan 15, 2015Jan 15, 2015($3,099)
ES H5long3Jan 14, 2015Jan 14, 2015$2,376
ES H5short3Jan 13, 2015Jan 13, 2015$3,089
ES H5long3Jan 12, 2015Jan 12, 2015($2,537)
ES H5long3Dec 19, 2014Dec 19, 2014$989
ES H5short3Dec 18, 2014Dec 18, 2014($3,662)
ES H5long3Dec 17, 2014Dec 17, 2014$5,226
ES H5short3Dec 16, 2014Dec 16, 2014$1,214
ES H5long3Dec 15, 2014Dec 15, 2014($3,212)
ES Z4long3Dec 12, 2014Dec 12, 2014($3,362)
ES Z4short3Dec 11, 2014Dec 11, 2014$276
ES Z4long3Dec 10, 2014Dec 10, 2014($4,074)
ES Z4long3Dec 9, 2014Dec 9, 2014$2,826
ES Z4short3Dec 8, 2014Dec 8, 2014$1,476
ES Z4long2Nov 14, 2014Nov 14, 2014$234
ES Z4short2Nov 13, 2014Nov 13, 2014$184
ES Z4long2Nov 12, 2014Nov 12, 2014$784
ES Z4short2Nov 11, 2014Nov 11, 2014$134
ES Z4short2Nov 10, 2014Nov 10, 2014($616)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.