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Euro 30

Forex · Started Feb 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
595
Win Trades
53.1%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
7.0%

About this strategy

Euro 30 is a system to trade currency pairs with limited risk. I attempt to limit risk to a maximum 5% per trade. My goal is low risk, high profit potential. The system is designed to produce the highest amount of profit from every dollar invested(results cannot be guaranteed).

I use technical indicators, support/resistance levels, trends, momentum, common points, correlation and volatility trading.

I recommend a minimum starting capital of $3,000. The max position size for that account should be 3 mini lots. For larger accounts, such as $10,000, the max position size should be 10 mini lots.

Auto trading is highly recommended because some of these trades are market orders and timing is very important. However, I do enter limit trades which can be used by manual traders. It should also be noted that I alter many trades depending on short term changes in market conditions.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201113.347.838.810.0-28.113.7-12.834.299.333.910.0617.4
2012-100.3-2380.0-100.76429.685.9-35.749.0-4.19.7-50.4-62.5-419.8-104.6
2013-132.7-18.0-29.2-25.9-7.8-13.6-0.4-1.7-1.6-1.5-18.9-16.0
2014-9.0-4.0-1.5-0.5-0.8-2.5-4.7-6.5-20.1-7.0-14.8-3.5
2015-5.4-4.1-0.2-0.4-7.6-3.0-2.8-6.3-0.4-0.9-3.3-3.3
2016-1.1-15.1-1.9-1.9-4.8-20.7-3.2-4.9-6.8-13.4-27.0-10.2
2017-7.5-3.1-0.3-2.4-1.9-4.8-3.9-1.6-6.9-2.4-6.1-2.7
2018-4.8-8.9-2.8-9.4-0.9-5.7-1.5-1.1-7.7-4.1-3.1-7.4
2019-4.4-7.3-1.0-1.3-1.20.0-7.7-6.3-4.3-2.4-1.9
2020-0.3-7.3-10.8-1.9-5.8-4.7-5.0-1.5-1.7-3.6-0.1-4.7
2021-4.4-6.7-13.5-2.9-1.3-4.1-3.8-0.1-3.2-8.8-2.8-4.6
2022-0.4-0.3-13.2-14.7-5.2-13.4-1.0-3.0-4.7-3.8-11.6-1.6
2023-7.5-7.2-3.7-1.1-7.9-3.6-2.7-5.1-2.6-0.5-2.1-4.5
2024-5.1-1.7-1.5-5.0-0.7-2.5-2.3-9.8-2.4-9.7-0.8-1.5
2025-1.5-3.7-0.7-6.9-2.1-0.5-3.6-0.20.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/17/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$3,000
Age190 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades595
# Profitable316
% Profitable53.1%
Avg trade duration8.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodDec 01, 2012 - July 09, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$262
Avg loss$317

Ratios

W:L ratio0.94
Sharpe Ratio0.70
Sortino Ratio5.03
Calmar Ratio-0.87

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life463.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-953.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$317
Avg Win$262
# Winners316
Sum Trade PL (losers)$88,345
Sum Trade PL (winners)$82,918
Num Months Winners9
# Losers279
% Winners53.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table12

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)12155.85
Avg Position Time (hrs)202.60
Avg Trade Length8.40
Last Trade Ago390

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-10959.25
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.55
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.70
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.31
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.54
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.13
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.14
SD2.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df46
t0.94
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio3.05
Upside part of mean2.79
Downside part of mean-1.65
Upside SD2.22
Downside SD0.92
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms26
N of observations47
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion1.14
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion2.41
Covariance-0.03
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.32
Mean Square Error5.91
DF error45
t(b)-0.33
p(b)0.63
t(a)0.98
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.77
Jensen alpha (a)1.32
Mean-2.07
SD4.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.48
df46
t-0.96
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Sortino ratio-0.51
Upside Potential Ratio0.44
Upside part of mean1.79
Downside part of mean-3.86
Upside SD1.15
Downside SD4.10
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms26
N of observations47
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion-2.07
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion4.26
Covariance0.31
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.67
Mean Square Error17.27
DF error45
t(b)1.83
p(b)0.04
t(a)-1.61
p(a)0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-8.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.91
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.50
Jensen alpha (a)-3.67
VaR(95%)0.89
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.93
VaR(95%)0.34
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.63
Mean2.95
SD5.99
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df1044
t0.98
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.47
Sortino ratio2.40
Upside Potential Ratio8.39
Upside part of mean10.31
Downside part of mean-7.35
Upside SD5.86
Downside SD1.23
N nonnegative terms444
N negative terms601
N of observations1045
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion2.95
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion5.99
Covariance-0.13
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)3.52
Mean Square Error35.79
DF error1043
t(b)-2.13
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.17
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha9.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.40
Jensen alpha (a)3.52
Mean-2.03
SD3.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.58
df1044
t-1.16
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.40
Sortino ratio-0.66
Upside Potential Ratio2.37
Upside part of mean7.29
Downside part of mean-9.32
Upside SD1.72
Downside SD3.07
N nonnegative terms444
N negative terms601
N of observations1045
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion-2.03
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion3.52
Covariance-0.08
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.71
Mean Square Error12.32
DF error1043
t(b)-2.36
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.97
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)2.58
Jensen alpha (a)-1.71
VaR(95%)0.31
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.36
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.23
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6784234777739264
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.35590115721672e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations47
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.81
Median1
Quartile 31.13
Maximum4.75
Mean of quarter 10.54
Mean of quarter 20.93
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.86
Inter Quartile Range0.32
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.16
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high2.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.46
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.55
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.52
Number of observations1045
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.97
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum12.29
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low92
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high91
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.34
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.10
Quartile 10.33
Median0.55
Quartile 30.78
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.45
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.07
Quartile 30.18
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.46
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.45
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.54
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396536512
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)4238
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.87
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.87
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.87
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.94
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.87
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.87
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1429 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
USD/JPY short520Feb 28, 2012Aug 21, 2025($146)
GBP/USD short970Jan 25, 2012Mar 19, 2012($1,576)
AUD/USD long170Mar 6, 2012Mar 7, 2012$151
EUR/USD long150Mar 6, 2012Mar 7, 2012$443
EUR/USD short3310Feb 16, 2012Mar 6, 2012($5,616)
AUD/USD short1080Feb 27, 2012Mar 5, 2012$241
AUD/USD long640Feb 24, 2012Feb 27, 2012($1,083)
USD/JPY short370Feb 24, 2012Feb 27, 2012$17
AUD/USD short2540Jan 31, 2012Feb 22, 2012($4,546)
EUR/USD short170Feb 16, 2012Feb 16, 2012($248)
EUR/USD short50Feb 15, 2012Feb 15, 2012$116
EUR/USD short6970Jan 13, 2012Feb 15, 2012($4,680)
AUD/USD short150Jan 31, 2012Jan 31, 2012$204
GBP/USD short170Jan 24, 2012Jan 24, 2012($563)
AUD/USD short150Jan 23, 2012Jan 23, 2012($306)
AUD/USD long90Jan 17, 2012Jan 17, 2012$117
AUD/USD short1010Jan 13, 2012Jan 17, 2012($2,606)
AUD/USD short160Jan 13, 2012Jan 13, 2012$597
EUR/USD short90Jan 13, 2012Jan 13, 2012$167
EUR/USD short50Jan 13, 2012Jan 13, 2012($118)
EUR/USD short250Jan 12, 2012Jan 12, 2012($375)
EUR/USD short120Jan 12, 2012Jan 12, 2012$79
EUR/USD short170Jan 12, 2012Jan 12, 2012$94
EUR/USD short180Jan 12, 2012Jan 12, 2012($405)
EUR/USD short120Jan 12, 2012Jan 12, 2012($121)
AUD/USD short270Jan 11, 2012Jan 12, 2012($1,087)
AUD/USD short90Jan 11, 2012Jan 11, 2012$297
EUR/USD short80Jan 11, 2012Jan 11, 2012$506
EUR/USD short80Jan 10, 2012Jan 10, 2012$223
AUD/USD short160Jan 10, 2012Jan 10, 2012$397

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.