ride the trend
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- -10.0%
- Max Drawdown
- —
- Trades
- 24
- Win Trades
- 50.0%
- Profit Factor
- 0.30
- Win Months
- 35.6%
About this strategy
there are basically 3 places to be invested stocks,bonds,cash/moneymarket
My process is basically 3 steps
-look at relative strength of spx vs moneymarket,if spx is stronger it means you should be in stocks,if moneymarket is stronger it means you should be out of market
-whichever is stronger than compare it to bonds/fixed income
-if stocks are stronger than compare spx to rsp, whichever is stronger is than compared to small cap and mid cap- if for example small cap is strongest would than look at small cap value vs small cap growth,majority of money would go into strongest sector
--than compare individual sectors ( oil,real estate,technolgy,financials etc) against primary sector and diversify by putting smaller amount of money into strongest sub sector
Monotored on a daily basis
My process is basically 3 steps
-look at relative strength of spx vs moneymarket,if spx is stronger it means you should be in stocks,if moneymarket is stronger it means you should be out of market
-whichever is stronger than compare it to bonds/fixed income
-if stocks are stronger than compare spx to rsp, whichever is stronger is than compared to small cap and mid cap- if for example small cap is strongest would than look at small cap value vs small cap growth,majority of money would go into strongest sector
--than compare individual sectors ( oil,real estate,technolgy,financials etc) against primary sector and diversify by putting smaller amount of money into strongest sub sector
Monotored on a daily basis
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | -1.5 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | -3.1 | -0.9 | -2.8 | -6.4 | -3.5 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -2.2 | -12.3 |
| 2012 | -0.1 | -1.0 | 1.2 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -0.4 | -1.3 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.7 | -0.8 | 0.3 | -5.2 |
| 2013 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2014 | -1.9 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -9.8 |
| 2015 | -1.6 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -1.2 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.2 |
| 2016 | -0.0 | -1.2 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -2.0 |
| 2017 | -0.4 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -3.9 |
| 2018 | 0.1 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 1.0 |
| 2019 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -1.2 | -0.2 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -4.3 |
| 2020 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -4.7 |
| 2021 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.4 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -1.3 |
| 2022 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 9.1 | -6.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 5.1 |
| 2023 | -1.0 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.5 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | -0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1.4 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 0.4 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.2 | 1.0 | -0.3 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 1/26/2011 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $50,000 |
| Age | 190 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 24 |
| # Profitable | 12 |
| % Profitable | 50.0% |
| Avg trade duration | 490.3 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | — |
| drawdown period | — |
| Annual return (compounded) | -2.3% |
| Avg win | $425 |
| Avg loss | $1,744 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 0.28 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.78 |
| Sortino Ratio | -1.02 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.22 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | -0.03 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 482.4% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -44.8% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | -10.0% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | -2.3% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 63.2% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 1.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 2.5% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $1,744 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $425 |
| # Winners | 12 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $20,930 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $5,097 |
| Num Months Winners | 72 |
| # Losers | 12 |
| % Winners | 50.0% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 853 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 188 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 706055.75 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 11767.60 |
| Avg Trade Length | 490.30 |
| Last Trade Ago | 5520 |
Regression
| Alpha | -0.01 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.01 |
| Treynor Index | 1.34 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.03 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.36 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.06 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | -1.70 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 4.09 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 6.90 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 88.84 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.58 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.15 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | -0.68 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.13 |
|---|---|
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.01 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 1199 |
|---|---|
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.8% |
Trading record
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOT | long | 300 | Mar 31, 2011 | Aug 3, 2011 | ($367) |
| VBK | long | 200 | Jun 21, 2011 | Aug 3, 2011 | ($497) |
| EWRM | long | 100 | Jun 29, 2011 | Aug 3, 2011 | ($208) |
| SDS | long | 50 | Jul 13, 2011 | Jul 29, 2011 | $219 |
| VWO | long | 100 | Apr 4, 2011 | Jun 29, 2011 | ($235) |
| QQQ | long | 200 | Jun 13, 2011 | Jun 16, 2011 | ($140) |
| VBK | long | 300 | Feb 3, 2011 | Jun 6, 2011 | $628 |
| UKK | long | 100 | Jun 1, 2011 | Jun 6, 2011 | ($492) |
| VXX | long | 5 | May 24, 2011 | May 27, 2011 | ($339) |
| PSCE | long | 100 | Feb 28, 2011 | May 18, 2011 | ($202) |
| QID | long | 75 | May 12, 2011 | May 17, 2011 | $554 |
| FXP | long | 100 | May 3, 2011 | May 5, 2011 | $422 |
| MOO | long | 100 | Feb 3, 2011 | Mar 31, 2011 | $6 |
| GSG | long | 100 | Mar 3, 2011 | Mar 31, 2011 | $6 |
| VXX | long | 3 | Mar 7, 2011 | Mar 15, 2011 | $772 |
| XME | long | 400 | Jan 26, 2011 | Mar 11, 2011 | $724 |
| IYE | long | 100 | Feb 8, 2011 | Mar 8, 2011 | $159 |
| PXQ | long | 500 | Jan 26, 2011 | Mar 8, 2011 | $914 |
| XSD | long | 1200 | Jan 26, 2011 | Mar 8, 2011 | $592 |
| KBE | long | 500 | Jan 26, 2011 | Mar 8, 2011 | $41 |
| SDD | long | 19 | Feb 1, 2011 | Feb 7, 2011 | ($82) |
| SPMD | long | 1000 | Jan 27, 2011 | Feb 4, 2011 | ($1,625) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.