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OMG

Futures · Started Nov 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.1%
Max Drawdown
51.0%
Trades
26
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
0.5%

About this strategy

The system has multi week trades and gets out sooner if market does not behave as needed for the system. System uses dynamic stops and targets that can change every 15 minutes.
System send out market orders.

The system has been around for a very long time. It uses tried and true techniques. Sign up today. A maximum number of subscribers is low to prevent very bad fills.

Most trades last more than one week making it ok for manual traders.

Best

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010-0.2-16.3-16.5
2011-20.3-5.933.8-0.20.0-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/30/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age192 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades26
# Profitable13
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration7.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown51.0%
drawdown periodDec 17, 2010 - March 09, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.1%
Avg win$1,140
Avg loss$1,344

Ratios

W:L ratio0.85
Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Sortino Ratio-0.29
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life539.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-565.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity42.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,344
Avg Win$1,140
# Winners13
Sum Trade PL (losers)$17,469
Sum Trade PL (winners)$14,820
Num Months Winners1
# Losers13
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table191

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)10223.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)170.39
Avg Trade Length7.10
Last Trade Ago5659

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.50

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.08
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.07
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-12.96
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.34
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats20.80
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.02
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.87
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.02
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df41
t0.16
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.13
Sortino ratio0.18
Upside Potential Ratio0.99
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms3
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error40
t(b)0.05
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)2.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df41
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.05
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.81
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms3
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error40
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.06
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.20
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df928
t0.58
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio0.51
Upside Potential Ratio2.79
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms891
N negative terms38
N of observations929
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance-0.03
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error927
t(b)-3.96
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
Mean0
SD0.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df928
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.04
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio2.18
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.44
N nonnegative terms891
N negative terms38
N of observations929
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.63
Covariance-0.03
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.39
DF error927
t(b)-3.80
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.44
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.39
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations42
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations929
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.50
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low38
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high38
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.24
Quartile 10.24
Median0.24
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.16
Median0.25
Quartile 30.36
Maximum0.47
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20.25
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.47
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-364843392
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)82
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 3 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CD H1short2Feb 15, 2011Mar 15, 2011$464
AD H1short2Feb 1, 2011Feb 16, 2011$1,424
CD H1long2Feb 1, 2011Feb 15, 2011$1,464
BP H1short1Feb 2, 2011Feb 15, 2011$205
ES H1short1Jan 27, 2011Jan 27, 2011$17
AD H1short1Jan 24, 2011Jan 27, 2011$352
BP H1long1Jan 25, 2011Jan 27, 2011$973
CD H1short1Jan 25, 2011Jan 27, 2011($588)
QSI N1long1Jan 26, 2011Jan 27, 2011($2,658)
BP H1long1Jan 7, 2011Jan 25, 2011$2,705
CD H1short1Jan 19, 2011Jan 24, 2011($118)
SF H1short1Jan 18, 2011Jan 19, 2011($608)
S H1short1Jan 6, 2011Jan 12, 2011($2,458)
TFS H1short1Jan 7, 2011Jan 12, 2011($1,198)
CD H1short2Jan 7, 2011Jan 12, 2011($2,016)
SF H1short1Dec 29, 2010Jan 10, 2011$3,805
JY H1long1Dec 29, 2010Jan 7, 2011($2,996)
TFS H1long1Jan 5, 2011Jan 6, 2011$682
W H1short1Dec 10, 2010Dec 28, 2010($708)
CD H1short1Dec 14, 2010Dec 28, 2010($1,138)
SF H1short1Dec 20, 2010Dec 22, 2010($1,671)
SM H1short1Dec 17, 2010Dec 20, 2010($578)
ES H1long1Dec 16, 2010Dec 19, 2010$142
SF H1long1Dec 8, 2010Dec 13, 2010$2,217
C H1short1Dec 10, 2010Dec 13, 2010($846)
CD Z0short1Dec 7, 2010Dec 7, 2010$242

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.