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FxTrader

Forex · Started Nov 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-6.3%
Max Drawdown
96.7%
Trades
236
Win Trades
60.6%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
4.7%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010-2.910.57.3
201118.017.138.0-0.949.037.2-8.4-51.4-57.3-43.98.1-11.7-60.7
2012-21.71.6-30.457.8-3.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-15.8
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/24/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age192 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades236
# Profitable143
% Profitable60.6%
Avg trade duration4.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown96.7%
drawdown periodAug 10, 2011 - April 02, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)-6.3%
Avg win$655
Avg loss$1,035

Ratios

W:L ratio0.97
Sharpe Ratio0.08
Sortino Ratio0.12
Calmar Ratio-0.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life530.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-603.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-6.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1596.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated1.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,035
Avg Win$655
# Winners143
Sum Trade PL (losers)$96,235
Sum Trade PL (winners)$93,606
Num Months Winners9
# Losers93
% Winners60.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table191

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6874.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)114.58
Avg Trade Length4.80
Last Trade Ago5258

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta-0.16
Treynor Index-0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.09
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.25
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.15
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-14.17
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.52
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats27.70
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.04
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.20
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df52
t0.50
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Sortino ratio0.35
Upside Potential Ratio1.23
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms8
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.58
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error51
t(b)0.20
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)2.15
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean-0.07
SD0.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.09
df52
t-0.20
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.84
Sortino ratio-0.11
Upside Potential Ratio0.68
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.61
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms8
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.71
Covariance0.02
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.21
Mean Square Error0.51
DF error51
t(b)0.83
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.55
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.21
VaR(95%)0.29
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.35
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.42
SD0.99
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df1175
t0.90
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio0.67
Upside Potential Ratio4.71
Upside part of mean2.97
Downside part of mean-2.55
Upside SD0.76
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms1004
N negative terms172
N of observations1176
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.99
Covariance-0.03
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error0.97
DF error1174
t(b)-3.03
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.48
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
Mean-0.07
SD1.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.07
df1175
t-0.14
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.86
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio3.63
Upside part of mean2.74
Downside part of mean-2.80
Upside SD0.66
Downside SD0.75
N nonnegative terms1004
N negative terms172
N of observations1176
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion1.00
Covariance-0.02
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.99
DF error1174
t(b)-2.96
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.12
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.98
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations53
Minimum0.32
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.53
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-10.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.67
Number of observations1176
Minimum0.51
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.68
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low172
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high175
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.29
Median0.48
Quartile 30.67
Maximum0.85
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.85
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.11
Median0.23
Quartile 30.31
Maximum0.90
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20.19
Mean of quarter 30.26
Mean of quarter 40.50
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.90
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.57
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.96
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.61
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-416975008
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)236
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.19
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.54
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 312 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD short30Mar 9, 2012Apr 19, 2012($797)
GBP/JPY short30Mar 9, 2012Apr 19, 2012($4)
EUR/JPY short30Mar 9, 2012Apr 19, 2012$1
EUR/USD long30Mar 6, 2012Mar 9, 2012$336
GBP/JPY long30Mar 6, 2012Mar 9, 2012$4
EUR/JPY long30Mar 6, 2012Mar 9, 2012$4
EUR/USD long30Jan 23, 2012Feb 21, 2012$684
EUR/USD short30Dec 29, 2011Jan 23, 2012($238)
AUD/USD short30Dec 29, 2011Jan 23, 2012($1,258)
GBP/USD long30Dec 21, 2011Dec 29, 2011($943)
EUR/USD long30Dec 21, 2011Dec 29, 2011($475)
AUD/USD long30Dec 8, 2011Dec 21, 2011($101)
EUR/USD long30Dec 20, 2011Dec 21, 2011$17
GBP/USD long30Dec 9, 2011Dec 20, 2011$154
EUR/USD long30Nov 27, 2011Dec 8, 2011$142
GBP/USD long30Nov 30, 2011Dec 7, 2011$53
AUD/USD long30Dec 6, 2011Dec 7, 2011$263
AUD/USD long30Dec 1, 2011Dec 1, 2011$50
AUD/USD long30Nov 30, 2011Nov 30, 2011$29
AUD/USD short30Nov 30, 2011Nov 30, 2011$94
GBP/USD short30Nov 30, 2011Nov 30, 2011$103
AUD/USD long30Nov 22, 2011Nov 30, 2011$860
GBP/USD long30Nov 24, 2011Nov 29, 2011$459
EUR/USD long30Nov 24, 2011Nov 25, 2011($143)
EUR/USD long30Nov 24, 2011Nov 24, 2011($9)
EUR/USD long30Nov 16, 2011Nov 23, 2011($212)
GBP/USD long30Nov 16, 2011Nov 18, 2011$251
GBP/USD long30Nov 15, 2011Nov 15, 2011($270)
EUR/USD long30Nov 15, 2011Nov 15, 2011($258)
GBP/USD short30Nov 15, 2011Nov 15, 2011$79

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.