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Future Strategy

Futures · Started Nov 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-11.0%
Max Drawdown
95.4%
Trades
86
Win Trades
88.4%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
1.6%

About this strategy

Welcome to my system page ,


I found that C2 is the best way to keep my head cold day after day .
The only important thing for me is to stay green weeks after weeks and month after month.Life is much better with green everywhere.

I can take small gains as well as big .Market will decide , not me .Seize the moment is my truth . Price Action is always right.
Every loss is a lesson on the near future .

See this system as my diary .Read it if you want to ,but please don't ask , I'm trying to stay concentrate to write my own story.

I wish you the best of luck.


Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201024.230.862.5
2011-58.1-74.0-3.7-3.8-3.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-90.3
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.02.80.00.00.00.00.00.02.8
20150.00.00.00.00.0-2.40.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.4
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/23/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,862
Age192 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades86
# Profitable76
% Profitable88.4%
Avg trade duration1.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown95.4%
drawdown periodJan 03, 2011 - Feb 21, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)-11.0%
Avg win$655
Avg loss$7,591

Ratios

W:L ratio0.66
Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Sortino Ratio-0.20
Calmar Ratio-0.38

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life539.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-633.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-11.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-7.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity939.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$7,591
Avg Win$655
# Winners76
Sum Trade PL (losers)$75,909
Sum Trade PL (winners)$49,758
Num Months Winners4
# Losers10
% Winners88.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table191

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2421.98
Avg Position Time (hrs)40.37
Avg Trade Length1.70
Last Trade Ago5680

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-2.48

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.11
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.86
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.22
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.71
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.59
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats63.38
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.10
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.10
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.16
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.30
df42
t-0.57
p0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.74
Sortino ratio-0.36
Upside Potential Ratio0.34
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms40
N negative terms3
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error41
t(b)-0.09
p(b)0.54
t(a)-0.45
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)5.94
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean-0.39
SD0.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.47
df42
t-0.90
p0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.57
Sortino ratio-0.50
Upside Potential Ratio0.15
Upside part of mean0.12
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.78
N nonnegative terms40
N negative terms3
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.39
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.81
Covariance0.01
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.42
Mean Square Error0.67
DF error41
t(b)0.15
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.85
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.42
VaR(95%)0.34
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.40
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean1.10
SD2.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df946
t0.88
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio1.50
Upside Potential Ratio3.37
Upside part of mean2.48
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD2.28
Downside SD0.74
N nonnegative terms914
N negative terms33
N of observations947
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion1.10
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion2.40
Covariance0.03
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.97
Mean Square Error5.74
DF error945
t(b)1.03
p(b)0.15
t(a)0.77
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.46
Treynor index (mean / b)4.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.97
Mean-0.38
SD1.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df946
t-0.44
p0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.80
Sortino ratio-0.31
Upside Potential Ratio1.23
Upside part of mean1.52
Downside part of mean-1.90
Upside SD1.10
Downside SD1.24
N nonnegative terms914
N negative terms33
N of observations947
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.38
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion1.65
Covariance0.03
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.50
Mean Square Error2.73
DF error945
t(b)1.46
p(b)0.07
t(a)-0.58
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.58
Jensen alpha (a)-0.50
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations43
Minimum0.24
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.51
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.64
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations947
Minimum0.22
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum4.80
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high36
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.83
Median0.83
Quartile 30.83
Maximum0.83
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.06
Median0.12
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.85
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.58
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.85
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-382772288
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)49
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.80
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.67
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 68 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL H1short5Feb 17, 2011Feb 22, 2011($40,390)
EU H1long6Feb 18, 2011Feb 18, 2011($2,298)
EU H1short6Feb 17, 2011Feb 18, 2011$1,527
QCL H1short3.585999966Feb 16, 2011Feb 16, 2011($65)
EU H1long6.454999924Feb 16, 2011Feb 16, 2011$6,322
EU H1short9.324000359Jan 25, 2011Feb 16, 2011$6,544
BP H1short2.868999958Jan 7, 2011Jan 27, 2011($7,904)
NQ H1short2.15199995Jan 5, 2011Jan 25, 2011($2,158)
QGC G1long4.302999973Jan 3, 2011Jan 25, 2011($21,032)
QI H1long1.434000015Jan 25, 2011Jan 25, 2011($370)
QCL G1short2.868999958Jan 10, 2011Jan 20, 2011($1,917)
EU H1short2.15199995Jan 10, 2011Jan 10, 2011$279
QI H1short0.717000008Jan 10, 2011Jan 10, 2011$240
EU H1short2.868999958Jan 7, 2011Jan 9, 2011$551
QCL G1short2.15199995Jan 7, 2011Jan 7, 2011$715
YM H1short2.15199995Jan 5, 2011Jan 7, 2011$241
QCL G1short1.434000015Jan 7, 2011Jan 7, 2011$333
EU H1short2.15199995Jan 7, 2011Jan 7, 2011$252
QCL G1short1.434000015Jan 7, 2011Jan 7, 2011$520
BP H1short2.868999958Jan 3, 2011Jan 7, 2011$497
QCL G1short2.15199995Jan 6, 2011Jan 6, 2011$220
QCL G1short1.434000015Jan 5, 2011Jan 6, 2011$391
QCL G1short1.434000015Jan 5, 2011Jan 5, 2011$204
NQ H1short2.15199995Jan 3, 2011Jan 5, 2011$403
YM H1short2.868999958Jan 3, 2011Jan 5, 2011$651
QCL G1short1.434000015Jan 4, 2011Jan 5, 2011$749
QCL G1short1.434000015Jan 4, 2011Jan 4, 2011$118
QCL G1short1.434000015Jan 4, 2011Jan 4, 2011$1,437
QCL G1short1.434000015Jan 4, 2011Jan 4, 2011$878
QCL G1long1.434000015Dec 31, 2010Dec 31, 2010$333

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.