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Superior Returns

Stocks · Started Oct 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
2876
Win Trades
41.2%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
5.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010-6.411.06.810.9
201112.917.25.41.227.6-20.123.216.1-25.1-0.4-11.3-30.8-5.5
2012-4.430.5-118.7-374.8-0.5-3.4-2.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-212.8
20130.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.0
2014-0.20.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.0-0.40.0-0.30.00.0-77.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.2-78.80.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/14/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age194 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades2876
# Profitable1185
% Profitable41.2%
Avg trade duration9.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodAug 09, 2016 - Aug 09, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$1,698
Avg loss$1,186

Ratios

W:L ratio1
Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Sortino Ratio-0.97
Calmar Ratio-0.00

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life543.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-689.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,186
Avg Win$1,698
# Winners1185
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,004,924
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,012,240
Num Months Winners10
# Losers1691
% Winners41.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct488

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table18

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)591.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)9.85
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago5199

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.23
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-28.61
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.59
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.78
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.28
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean21392.71
SD46213.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df55
t1
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio32925.78
Upside Potential Ratio32926.70
Upside part of mean21393.30
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD46213.70
Downside SD0.65
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms12
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion21392.71
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion46213.70
Covariance188.95
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)3305.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)20028.64
Mean Square Error2174620160
DF error54
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.83
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-49423.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta56034.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-28412.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha68469.34
Treynor index (mean / b)6.47
Jensen alpha (a)20028.64
Mean-0.00
SD7.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.00
df55
t-0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.91
Sortino ratio-0.00
Upside Potential Ratio0.60
Upside part of mean2.92
Downside part of mean-2.92
Upside SD5.34
Downside SD4.85
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms12
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion7.28
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error53.96
DF error54
t(b)0.02
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.97
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean25689.13
SD55887.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df1239
t1.00
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio42643.13
Upside Potential Ratio42645.85
Upside part of mean25690.77
Downside part of mean-1.64
Upside SD55887.70
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms1055
N negative terms185
N of observations1240
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion25689.13
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion55887.70
Covariance251.73
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)2738.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)24494.73
Mean Square Error3125267968
DF error1238
t(b)0.52
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-7538.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta13016.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-26118.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha75108.18
Treynor index (mean / b)9.38
Jensen alpha (a)24494.73
Mean-0.00
SD7.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.00
df1239
t-0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio-0.00
Upside Potential Ratio0.78
Upside part of mean3.66
Downside part of mean-3.66
Upside SD5.39
Downside SD4.69
N nonnegative terms1055
N negative terms185
N of observations1240
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion7.15
Covariance-0.01
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error51.15
DF error1238
t(b)-0.21
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.02
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.52
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.52
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.59
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.26
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.18
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations56
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum99834
Mean of quarter 10.80
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 47132.10
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.72
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high7680.64
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-15.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.42
Number of observations1240
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum121585
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 4393.23
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low185
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high201
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high605.92
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.13
Median0.21
Quartile 30.61
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.21
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0.48
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations32
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.83
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.63
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-391245632
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2098
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.00
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 3354 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AAPL1227D600 long12Apr 24, 2012Apr 25, 2012$13,003
UVXY1219E27 long120Apr 16, 2012Apr 23, 2012($12,468)
ENB1219E40 long200Apr 2, 2012Apr 16, 2012($8,780)
ROST1219E60 long60Apr 12, 2012Apr 16, 2012($1,884)
DLTR1219E95 long20Apr 12, 2012Apr 16, 2012($1,128)
MCD1219E100 long100Apr 9, 2012Apr 12, 2012($5,390)
EWC1219E30 long200Apr 2, 2012Apr 12, 2012($1,280)
RAI1219E42 long200Apr 2, 2012Apr 9, 2012($3,580)
DRYS1219E4 long200Apr 2, 2012Apr 5, 2012($2,420)
BZH1219E3.5 long100Apr 2, 2012Apr 5, 2012($1,640)
TDW1219E60 long70Apr 2, 2012Apr 5, 2012($2,548)
FRO1219E9 long100Apr 2, 2012Apr 5, 2012($3,140)
PHM1219E10 long200Apr 2, 2012Apr 5, 2012($2,580)
DHI1219E15 long100Apr 2, 2012Apr 5, 2012($5,210)
WPRT1219E45 long20Apr 3, 2012Apr 4, 2012($1,728)
AMZN1219E220 long10Apr 2, 2012Apr 4, 2012($1,074)
EWC1219E30 long50Apr 2, 2012Apr 2, 2012($820)
AAPL short42857Mar 31, 2012Apr 2, 2012($53,117)
CMG short8000Mar 31, 2012Apr 2, 2012$30,011
WPZ1219E55 long30Mar 30, 2012Apr 2, 2012($1,542)
ADM1219E32 long50Mar 30, 2012Apr 2, 2012$530
FAS1221P95 long30Mar 29, 2012Apr 2, 2012($2,762)
MWE1219E60 long50Mar 30, 2012Apr 2, 2012($1,070)
DRYS1219E4 long200Mar 30, 2012Apr 2, 2012($680)
PCLN1230O710 long30Mar 29, 2012Mar 31, 2012($11,421)
CMG1230O420 long150Mar 27, 2012Mar 31, 2012($7,604)
CMG1230O400 long140Mar 28, 2012Mar 31, 2012($4,298)
AAPL1230O600 long60Mar 27, 2012Mar 31, 2012($8,892)
TVIX long2Mar 29, 2012Mar 30, 2012($2,150)
ME M2short10Mar 27, 2012Mar 28, 2012$2,545

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.