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MasterMind ETF Timer

Stocks · Started Oct 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
41
Win Trades
87.8%
Profit Factor
0.10
Win Months
17.8%

About this strategy



SYSTEM CONCEPT:





- Signals Buy/sell are generated by a sophisticated computer program that I developed and I have called MasterMind. It analyzes a specific set of frequencies of Put/Call ratios and their volumes. For each day, MasterMind performs a calculation of probability and shows careful in what direction to take a position in the market.

Why analyze the Put/Call ratios?

- The basic system is simple and logical: OPTIONS = DETERMINES THE FUTURE MARKET MOVEMENTS. The market is controlled to 80% by institutional investors. The latter use options and their positions tell us what are the odds that the market is influenced upward or downward. The levels of Put/Call ratio is fantastic in my opinion to anticipate market movements on a daily basis. MasterMind trade stocks that are correlated to SP500.

- You wondered why some days the market is increasing while the economic news is bad and vice versa? ... The money options often have an influence far greater than the news themselves. My observations tell me that the economic news will modulate the magnitude of a bullish or bearish, but not initiate it as does the Put/Call ratios. Therefore, Mastermind is 100% Put/Call ratios in its analysis.

- Even if you do not want to use MasterMind ETF Timer to make your trades, it can help you improve significantly your timing of the market by continuing to use your own way of doing things.





WHAT TO EXPECT & POSITION MANAGEMENT :





1-
First, I am always aware that you put your money in the market by following my signals, so I act like if your money was mine! Second, I aim to always finish the month with gains. It is main priority to keep the drawdowns on low levels with steady profit increase and long-term capital growth.


2-
The system trades the market in both directions: long and short with ETFs stocks(and reverse) having great correlation of SP500.


3-
The average duration of a trade varies between 1 and 4 days. It generates about 8-10 trades a month and about 120 trades a year


4-
System is low maintenance and very easy to do the trade by yourself. This is an efficient system with few trades at times.


5-
The system cut the losses at 3% max.


6-
The position size of each trade is automatically determined by the number of days with same consecutive signal.


7-
Where possible, the goal is to take profits on winning trades gradually in 3 steps. It may happen in some situations that I take a gain faster than the original objectives if the entry point was less good.


8-
For this system, we only trade ETFs stocks: SSO(ProShares Ultra SP500 long) and SDS(ProShares Ultra Short SP500) on US market. For canadian traders on TSX , you can use: HSU(BetaPro SP500 Bull Plus-Long) and HSD(BetaPro SP500 Bear Plus-short). But it is also possible to make their transactions for other stocks that represent the market as the Nasdaq and ETFs that will have quite the same movement as the SP500.


9-
In the vast majority of cases, the signals of the system MasterMind will be sent at the end of the day or at open.


10-
Only one position is open both on the market, it's easier to follow as well.


11-
MasterMind does not veritable "average down" or add to losing positions. This system will not freeze your account


12-
It is easy to adjust the size of the trades to conserve the same proportions as those made in Mastermind.


13-
Please note that unlike most of the trading systems on Collective2, I don't use margin in MasterMind. That way all of my subscribers are able to duplicate my results in their own trading account, whether it's a cash or margin account.


Francois
Mastermind system developer


Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20102.40.2-1.11.4
20111.60.3-0.5-2.70.71.31.32.58.5-5.42.8-0.110.2
2012-1.2-1.6-1.0-0.22.0-1.4-0.2-0.8-0.90.5-0.10.0-4.7
2013-1.9-0.2-0.6-0.5-0.90.4-1.00.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.3-6.2
20140.4-0.6-0.3-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.20.3-0.5-0.3-0.0-2.0
20150.2-0.50.2-0.2-0.20.2-0.20.9-0.3-0.7-0.1-0.0-0.7
20160.7-0.3-0.4-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.00.00.1-0.4-0.1-1.1
2017-0.1-0.3-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.11.3-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.2
2018-0.20.10.2-0.1-0.10.0-0.2-0.1-0.00.4-0.10.30.3
2019-0.4-0.1-0.0-0.2-0.00.00.1-0.2-0.0-0.1-0.1-1.1
2020-0.00.30.1-0.4-0.2-0.0-0.1-0.20.1-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.7
2021-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.10.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.00.0-0.1-0.3
20226.9-0.0-0.00.00.00.1-0.1-0.00.1-0.1-0.00.06.9
2023-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
2024-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.1
2025-0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-137.6-0.2-137.6
2026-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/8/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age194 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades41
# Profitable36
% Profitable87.8%
Avg trade duration131.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodDec 02, 2021 - Aug 15, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$281
Avg loss$15,324

Ratios

W:L ratio0.13
Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Sortino Ratio-0.26
Calmar Ratio-0.92

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life548.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-689.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$15,324
Avg Win$281
# Winners36
Sum Trade PL (losers)$76,619
Sum Trade PL (winners)$10,129
Num Months Winners52
# Losers5
% Winners87.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct102

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table182

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)189220.91
Avg Position Time (hrs)3153.68
Avg Trade Length131.40
Last Trade Ago5349

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat1.37
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.27
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.82
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.80
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats58.77
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.86
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.00
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-5.38

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.22
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df51
t-0.93
p0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.50
Sortino ratio-0.45
Upside Potential Ratio0.15
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms32
N of observations52
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance-0.05
r-0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error50
t(b)-2.84
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.46
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean-2.50
SD5.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.47
df51
t-1.00
p0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.47
Sortino ratio-0.48
Upside Potential Ratio0.01
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-2.57
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD5.23
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms32
N of observations52
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion-2.50
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion5.23
Covariance-0.39
r-0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)-6.74
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error25.18
DF error50
t(b)-2.31
p(b)0.99
t(a)0.14
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-12.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.81
Treynor index (mean / b)0.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.37
VaR(95%)0.93
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.96
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean-0.22
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.44
df1138
t-0.92
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.50
Sortino ratio-0.45
Upside Potential Ratio0.62
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms525
N negative terms614
N of observations1139
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error1137
t(b)0.38
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.95
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.22
Mean-2.49
SD5.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.48
df1138
t-1.00
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.46
Sortino ratio-0.48
Upside Potential Ratio0.06
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-2.79
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD5.22
N nonnegative terms525
N negative terms614
N of observations1139
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion-2.49
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion5.22
Covariance0.09
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.79
Mean Square Error27.19
DF error1137
t(b)1.64
p(b)0.47
t(a)-1.11
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.48
Jensen alpha (a)-2.79
VaR(95%)0.42
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.49
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-2.00
SD1.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.41
df130
t-1.00
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio-1.42
Upside Potential Ratio0.00
Upside part of mean0.01
Downside part of mean-2.01
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD1.41
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion-2.00
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion1.41
Covariance0.08
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.73
Mean Square Error1.97
DF error129
t(b)1.75
p(b)0.40
t(a)-1.35
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.56
Jensen alpha (a)-2.73
Mean-21.76
SD15.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.41
df130
t-1.00
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio-1.41
Upside Potential Ratio0.00
Upside part of mean0.01
Downside part of mean-21.77
Upside SD0.00
Downside SD15.38
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.22
Mean of criterion-21.76
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion15.38
Covariance0.91
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)6.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-29.30
Mean Square Error232.83
DF error129
t(b)1.78
p(b)0.40
t(a)-1.33
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.71
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta13.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-72.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha14.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.51
Jensen alpha (a)-29.30
VaR(95%)0.81
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.86
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations52
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.73
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1139
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low122
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high128
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.84
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.53
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.25
Median0.50
Quartile 30.75
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.50
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396726080
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1717
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.92
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.96
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.92
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-3.25
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.88
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.16

Trading record

Placed 186 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SSO long600Dec 12, 2011Dec 20, 2011$50
SSO long200Dec 8, 2011Dec 9, 2011$43
SSO long200Dec 1, 2011Dec 2, 2011$37
SSO long200Nov 22, 2011Nov 30, 2011$277
SDS long125Sep 27, 2011Sep 30, 2011$396
SDS long4425Nov 30, 2010Sep 22, 2011$6,032
SSO long600Mar 7, 2011Mar 28, 2011$70
SSO long200Feb 25, 2011Feb 25, 2011$41
SSO long200Feb 24, 2011Feb 24, 2011$46
SSO long200Feb 24, 2011Feb 24, 2011$24
SSO long200Feb 14, 2011Feb 15, 2011($18)
SSO long200Feb 7, 2011Feb 7, 2011$34
SSO long400Feb 3, 2011Feb 4, 2011$18
SSO long1000Jan 27, 2011Feb 3, 2011$18
SSO long400Jan 26, 2011Jan 27, 2011($2)
SSO long400Jan 24, 2011Jan 26, 2011$66
SSO long200Jan 20, 2011Jan 21, 2011$57
SSO long400Jan 20, 2011Jan 20, 2011$49
SSO long600Jan 13, 2011Jan 14, 2011$86
SSO long800Jan 11, 2011Jan 12, 2011$208
SSO long3000Dec 7, 2010Jan 4, 2011$34
SSO long6200Nov 19, 2010Dec 1, 2010$34
SDS long150Nov 29, 2010Nov 29, 2010$114
SDS long375Nov 26, 2010Nov 26, 2010$6
SDS long150Nov 23, 2010Nov 23, 2010$72
SDS long153Nov 18, 2010Nov 19, 2010$70
SSO long2200Nov 12, 2010Nov 18, 2010$88
SDS long651Nov 3, 2010Nov 16, 2010$87
SDS long50Nov 3, 2010Nov 3, 2010$30
SDS long100Nov 2, 2010Nov 3, 2010$105

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.