MasterMind ETF Timer
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 0.0%
- Max Drawdown
- 100.0%
- Trades
- 41
- Win Trades
- 87.8%
- Profit Factor
- 0.10
- Win Months
- 17.8%
About this strategy
SYSTEM CONCEPT:
- Signals Buy/sell are generated by a sophisticated computer program that I developed and I have called MasterMind. It analyzes a specific set of frequencies of Put/Call ratios and their volumes. For each day, MasterMind performs a calculation of probability and shows careful in what direction to take a position in the market.
Why analyze the Put/Call ratios?
- The basic system is simple and logical: OPTIONS = DETERMINES THE FUTURE MARKET MOVEMENTS. The market is controlled to 80% by institutional investors. The latter use options and their positions tell us what are the odds that the market is influenced upward or downward. The levels of Put/Call ratio is fantastic in my opinion to anticipate market movements on a daily basis. MasterMind trade stocks that are correlated to SP500.
- You wondered why some days the market is increasing while the economic news is bad and vice versa? ... The money options often have an influence far greater than the news themselves. My observations tell me that the economic news will modulate the magnitude of a bullish or bearish, but not initiate it as does the Put/Call ratios. Therefore, Mastermind is 100% Put/Call ratios in its analysis.
- Even if you do not want to use MasterMind ETF Timer to make your trades, it can help you improve significantly your timing of the market by continuing to use your own way of doing things.
WHAT TO EXPECT & POSITION MANAGEMENT :
1-
First, I am always aware that you put your money in the market by following my signals, so I act like if your money was mine! Second, I aim to always finish the month with gains. It is main priority to keep the drawdowns on low levels with steady profit increase and long-term capital growth.
2-
The system trades the market in both directions: long and short with ETFs stocks(and reverse) having great correlation of SP500.
3-
The average duration of a trade varies between 1 and 4 days. It generates about 8-10 trades a month and about 120 trades a year
4-
System is low maintenance and very easy to do the trade by yourself. This is an efficient system with few trades at times.
5-
The system cut the losses at 3% max.
6-
The position size of each trade is automatically determined by the number of days with same consecutive signal.
7-
Where possible, the goal is to take profits on winning trades gradually in 3 steps. It may happen in some situations that I take a gain faster than the original objectives if the entry point was less good.
8-
For this system, we only trade ETFs stocks: SSO(ProShares Ultra SP500 long) and SDS(ProShares Ultra Short SP500) on US market. For canadian traders on TSX , you can use: HSU(BetaPro SP500 Bull Plus-Long) and HSD(BetaPro SP500 Bear Plus-short). But it is also possible to make their transactions for other stocks that represent the market as the Nasdaq and ETFs that will have quite the same movement as the SP500.
9-
In the vast majority of cases, the signals of the system MasterMind will be sent at the end of the day or at open.
10-
Only one position is open both on the market, it's easier to follow as well.
11-
MasterMind does not veritable "average down" or add to losing positions. This system will not freeze your account
12-
It is easy to adjust the size of the trades to conserve the same proportions as those made in Mastermind.
13-
Please note that unlike most of the trading systems on Collective2, I don't use margin in MasterMind. That way all of my subscribers are able to duplicate my results in their own trading account, whether it's a cash or margin account.
Francois
Mastermind system developer
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2.4 | 0.2 | -1.1 | 1.4 | |||||||||
| 2011 | 1.6 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -2.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 8.5 | -5.4 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 10.2 |
| 2012 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 2.0 | -1.4 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -4.7 |
| 2013 | -1.9 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.9 | 0.4 | -1.0 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -6.2 |
| 2014 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -2.0 |
| 2015 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.7 |
| 2016 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| 2017 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2018 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.2 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.1 | |
| 2020 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.7 |
| 2021 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 6.9 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 6.9 |
| 2023 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -137.6 | -0.2 | -137.6 |
| 2026 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 10/8/2010 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $50,000 |
| Age | 194 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 41 |
| # Profitable | 36 |
| % Profitable | 87.8% |
| Avg trade duration | 131.4 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 100.0% |
| drawdown period | Dec 02, 2021 - Aug 15, 2026 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 0.0% |
| Avg win | $281 |
| Avg loss | $15,324 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 0.13 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.26 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.26 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.92 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.00 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 548.1% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -689.7% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 0.0% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | — |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.9% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $15,324 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $281 |
| # Winners | 36 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $76,619 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $10,129 |
| Num Months Winners | 52 |
| # Losers | 5 |
| % Winners | 87.8% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 102 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 182 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 189220.91 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 3153.68 |
| Avg Trade Length | 131.40 |
| Last Trade Ago | 5349 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.02 |
| Treynor Index | 0 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.04 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 1.37 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.27 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | -1.29 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 1.82 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 4.80 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 58.77 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.86 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.00 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | -5.38 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | -0.22 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.49 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.45 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.44 |
| df | 51 |
| t | -0.93 |
| p | 0.82 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.39 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.39 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.50 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.45 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.15 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.07 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.29 |
| Upside SD | 0.06 |
| Downside SD | 0.48 |
| N nonnegative terms | 20 |
| N negative terms | 32 |
| N of observations | 52 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.46 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.22 |
| SD of predictor | 0.25 |
| SD of criterion | 0.49 |
| Covariance | -0.05 |
| r | -0.37 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.71 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.11 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.21 |
| DF error | 50 |
| t(b) | -2.84 |
| p(b) | 1.00 |
| t(a) | 0.46 |
| p(a) | 0.33 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -1.22 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.21 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.38 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.61 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.30 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.11 |
| Mean | -2.50 |
| SD | 5.23 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.48 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.47 |
| df | 51 |
| t | -1.00 |
| p | 0.84 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.42 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.47 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.42 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.47 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.48 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.01 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.07 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.57 |
| Upside SD | 0.06 |
| Downside SD | 5.23 |
| N nonnegative terms | 20 |
| N negative terms | 32 |
| N of observations | 52 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.43 |
| Mean of criterion | -2.50 |
| SD of predictor | 0.24 |
| SD of criterion | 5.23 |
| Covariance | -0.39 |
| r | -0.31 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -6.74 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.37 |
| Mean Square Error | 25.18 |
| DF error | 50 |
| t(b) | -2.31 |
| p(b) | 0.99 |
| t(a) | 0.14 |
| p(a) | 0.45 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -12.59 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.88 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -5.08 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 5.81 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.37 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.37 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.93 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.96 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.06 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.14 |
| Mean | -0.22 |
| SD | 0.49 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.44 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.44 |
| df | 1138 |
| t | -0.92 |
| p | 0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.38 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.38 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.50 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.45 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.62 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.30 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.51 |
| Upside SD | 0.07 |
| Downside SD | 0.48 |
| N nonnegative terms | 525 |
| N negative terms | 614 |
| N of observations | 1139 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.49 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.22 |
| SD of predictor | 0.34 |
| SD of criterion | 0.49 |
| Covariance | 0.00 |
| r | 0.01 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.02 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.22 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.24 |
| DF error | 1137 |
| t(b) | 0.38 |
| p(b) | 0.49 |
| t(a) | -0.95 |
| p(a) | 0.52 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.07 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.10 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.68 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.24 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -13.33 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.22 |
| Mean | -2.49 |
| SD | 5.22 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.48 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.48 |
| df | 1138 |
| t | -1.00 |
| p | 0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.42 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.46 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.42 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.46 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.48 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.06 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.30 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.79 |
| Upside SD | 0.07 |
| Downside SD | 5.22 |
| N nonnegative terms | 525 |
| N negative terms | 614 |
| N of observations | 1139 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.42 |
| Mean of criterion | -2.49 |
| SD of predictor | 0.35 |
| SD of criterion | 5.22 |
| Covariance | 0.09 |
| r | 0.05 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.72 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -2.79 |
| Mean Square Error | 27.19 |
| DF error | 1137 |
| t(b) | 1.64 |
| p(b) | 0.47 |
| t(a) | -1.11 |
| p(a) | 0.52 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.14 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.57 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -7.71 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 2.13 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -3.48 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -2.79 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.42 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.49 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
| Mean | -2.00 |
| SD | 1.41 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -1.42 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -1.41 |
| df | 130 |
| t | -1.00 |
| p | 0.54 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -4.19 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.36 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -4.19 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.37 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.42 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.00 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.01 |
| Downside part of mean | -2.01 |
| Upside SD | 0.00 |
| Downside SD | 1.41 |
| N nonnegative terms | 69 |
| N negative terms | 62 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.29 |
| Mean of criterion | -2.00 |
| SD of predictor | 0.38 |
| SD of criterion | 1.41 |
| Covariance | 0.08 |
| r | 0.15 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.56 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -2.73 |
| Mean Square Error | 1.97 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 1.75 |
| p(b) | 0.40 |
| t(a) | -1.35 |
| p(a) | 0.57 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.07 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.20 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -6.74 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.28 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -3.56 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -2.73 |
| Mean | -21.76 |
| SD | 15.38 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -1.41 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -1.41 |
| df | 130 |
| t | -1.00 |
| p | 0.54 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -4.19 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.37 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -4.18 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.37 |
| Sortino ratio | -1.41 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.00 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.01 |
| Downside part of mean | -21.77 |
| Upside SD | 0.00 |
| Downside SD | 15.38 |
| N nonnegative terms | 69 |
| N negative terms | 62 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.22 |
| Mean of criterion | -21.76 |
| SD of predictor | 0.38 |
| SD of criterion | 15.38 |
| Covariance | 0.91 |
| r | 0.15 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 6.21 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -29.30 |
| Mean Square Error | 232.83 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 1.78 |
| p(b) | 0.40 |
| t(a) | -1.33 |
| p(a) | 0.57 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.71 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.42 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 13.12 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -72.82 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 14.21 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -3.51 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -29.30 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.81 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.86 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.04 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 52 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.99 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.06 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.91 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.02 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 4 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.08 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.73 |
| Number of outliers high | 5 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.10 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.05 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.19 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.04 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 1.99 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 1139 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.06 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.00 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.00 |
| Number outliers low | 122 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.98 |
| Number of outliers high | 128 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.01 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.84 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.57 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.97 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.00 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.00 |
| Number outliers low | 6 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.05 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.83 |
| Number of outliers high | 6 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.05 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.00 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 5 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.02 |
| Median | 0.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.03 |
| Maximum | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.00 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.20 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.00 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 16 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.02 |
| Maximum | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.28 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.02 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.12 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.53 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.49 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.20 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 3.00 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.42 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 2 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.25 |
| Median | 0.50 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.75 |
| Maximum | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.00 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.50 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -396726080 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 1717 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 1.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.23 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.92 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.92 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -0.92 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -0.96 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.23 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.92 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.92 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -3.25 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -1.88 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -2.00 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -1 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -1.00 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -1.00 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -1.16 |
Trading record
Placed 186 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSO | long | 600 | Dec 12, 2011 | Dec 20, 2011 | $50 |
| SSO | long | 200 | Dec 8, 2011 | Dec 9, 2011 | $43 |
| SSO | long | 200 | Dec 1, 2011 | Dec 2, 2011 | $37 |
| SSO | long | 200 | Nov 22, 2011 | Nov 30, 2011 | $277 |
| SDS | long | 125 | Sep 27, 2011 | Sep 30, 2011 | $396 |
| SDS | long | 4425 | Nov 30, 2010 | Sep 22, 2011 | $6,032 |
| SSO | long | 600 | Mar 7, 2011 | Mar 28, 2011 | $70 |
| SSO | long | 200 | Feb 25, 2011 | Feb 25, 2011 | $41 |
| SSO | long | 200 | Feb 24, 2011 | Feb 24, 2011 | $46 |
| SSO | long | 200 | Feb 24, 2011 | Feb 24, 2011 | $24 |
| SSO | long | 200 | Feb 14, 2011 | Feb 15, 2011 | ($18) |
| SSO | long | 200 | Feb 7, 2011 | Feb 7, 2011 | $34 |
| SSO | long | 400 | Feb 3, 2011 | Feb 4, 2011 | $18 |
| SSO | long | 1000 | Jan 27, 2011 | Feb 3, 2011 | $18 |
| SSO | long | 400 | Jan 26, 2011 | Jan 27, 2011 | ($2) |
| SSO | long | 400 | Jan 24, 2011 | Jan 26, 2011 | $66 |
| SSO | long | 200 | Jan 20, 2011 | Jan 21, 2011 | $57 |
| SSO | long | 400 | Jan 20, 2011 | Jan 20, 2011 | $49 |
| SSO | long | 600 | Jan 13, 2011 | Jan 14, 2011 | $86 |
| SSO | long | 800 | Jan 11, 2011 | Jan 12, 2011 | $208 |
| SSO | long | 3000 | Dec 7, 2010 | Jan 4, 2011 | $34 |
| SSO | long | 6200 | Nov 19, 2010 | Dec 1, 2010 | $34 |
| SDS | long | 150 | Nov 29, 2010 | Nov 29, 2010 | $114 |
| SDS | long | 375 | Nov 26, 2010 | Nov 26, 2010 | $6 |
| SDS | long | 150 | Nov 23, 2010 | Nov 23, 2010 | $72 |
| SDS | long | 153 | Nov 18, 2010 | Nov 19, 2010 | $70 |
| SSO | long | 2200 | Nov 12, 2010 | Nov 18, 2010 | $88 |
| SDS | long | 651 | Nov 3, 2010 | Nov 16, 2010 | $87 |
| SDS | long | 50 | Nov 3, 2010 | Nov 3, 2010 | $30 |
| SDS | long | 100 | Nov 2, 2010 | Nov 3, 2010 | $105 |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.