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Rhythm

Futures · Started Oct 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.1%
Max Drawdown
83.6%
Trades
376
Win Trades
59.6%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
2.6%

About this strategy

If you want to make more than the system, just use more contracts than I do at your own discretion and comfort level. Subscribership is limited to 12 people max to ensure everyone gets decent fills.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20101.4-17.050.226.4
201115.4-24.7-5.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-17.7
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.0-3.6-0.00.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0-3.9
2015-0.10.0-0.00.1-0.10.01.70.00.00.00.00.01.6
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/4/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$13,737
Age194 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades376
# Profitable224
% Profitable59.6%
Avg trade duration18.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown83.6%
drawdown periodJan 25, 2011 - March 04, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)0.1%
Avg win$212
Avg loss$273

Ratios

W:L ratio1.14
Sharpe Ratio0.13
Sortino Ratio0.24
Calmar Ratio0.17

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life564.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-566.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity113.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.1%
Percent Trades Futures0.8%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.1%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$273
Avg Win$212
# Winners224
Sum Trade PL (losers)$41,485
Sum Trade PL (winners)$47,420
Num Months Winners8
# Losers152
% Winners59.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table192

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1094.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)18.24
Avg Trade Length0.80
Last Trade Ago5656

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta-0.12
Treynor Index-0.16

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades14.30
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.13
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats45.48
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.13
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.38
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.37
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df42
t1.17
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio1.62
Upside Potential Ratio2.24
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms6
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error41
t(b)-0.17
p(b)0.57
t(a)1.12
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.11
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df42
t1.08
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.60
Sortino ratio1.27
Upside Potential Ratio1.89
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms37
N negative terms6
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error41
t(b)-0.11
p(b)0.55
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.46
SD0.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df949
t0.97
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio0.98
Upside Potential Ratio3.53
Upside part of mean1.66
Downside part of mean-1.20
Upside SD0.77
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms849
N negative terms101
N of observations950
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.90
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.47
Mean Square Error0.82
DF error948
t(b)-0.12
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.98
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-42.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.47
Mean0.11
SD0.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df949
t0.25
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio0.20
Upside Potential Ratio2.63
Upside part of mean1.45
Downside part of mean-1.34
Upside SD0.61
Downside SD0.55
N nonnegative terms849
N negative terms101
N of observations950
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.82
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.68
DF error948
t(b)0.04
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.25
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)38.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.28
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations43
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations950
Minimum0.59
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.94
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low101
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high91
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-9.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.17
Quartile 10.17
Median0.17
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.06
Median0.10
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.68
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.44
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.68
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.49
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.49
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.70
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.90
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-372027520
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)38
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.16
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 356 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TFS H1short2Jan 25, 2011Mar 18, 2011($3,816)
EU H1short2Jan 25, 2011Mar 14, 2011($4,579)
BP H1short4Jan 3, 2011Mar 14, 2011($10,526)
QGC J1short1Jan 13, 2011Jan 25, 2011$4,832
QSI H1short1Jan 13, 2011Jan 25, 2011$10,667
C H1long2Jan 14, 2011Jan 25, 2011($166)
ES H1long2Dec 31, 2010Jan 3, 2011$1,484
TFS H1short1Dec 29, 2010Dec 31, 2010$622
ES H1long2Dec 27, 2010Dec 29, 2010$509
BP H1short2Dec 16, 2010Dec 20, 2010$1,184
ES H1short2Dec 13, 2010Dec 16, 2010($291)
US H1long1Dec 13, 2010Dec 13, 2010$1,055
C H1long1Dec 10, 2010Dec 10, 2010($358)
QCL F1long1Dec 10, 2010Dec 10, 2010($1,398)
QGC G1short1Dec 10, 2010Dec 10, 2010$952
YG G1long1Dec 9, 2010Dec 9, 2010($350)
ME Z0long1Dec 9, 2010Dec 9, 2010($339)
YG G1short1Dec 8, 2010Dec 9, 2010($473)
ME Z0short1Dec 8, 2010Dec 9, 2010$17
YM Z0long1Dec 8, 2010Dec 8, 2010($93)
NQ Z0long1Dec 8, 2010Dec 8, 2010($23)
ES Z0short1Dec 8, 2010Dec 8, 2010($21)
AD Z0short2Dec 7, 2010Dec 8, 2010$484
QGC G1short1Dec 7, 2010Dec 7, 2010$612
QSI H1short1Dec 7, 2010Dec 7, 2010$492
ES Z0long1Dec 7, 2010Dec 7, 2010($608)
TFS Z0long2Dec 1, 2010Dec 7, 2010$4,874
QM F1long1Dec 2, 2010Dec 7, 2010$1,155
YG G1long2Dec 2, 2010Dec 2, 2010($587)
ME Z0long1Dec 2, 2010Dec 2, 2010($21)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.