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Test Timer Ultra

Stocks · Started Sep 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.6%
Max Drawdown
37.2%
Trades
12
Win Trades
16.7%
Profit Factor
0.10
Win Months
1.6%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20102.3-2.90.6-2.1-2.2
2011-3.4-4.3-1.62.7-4.7-5.2-3.3-8.2-4.2-7.00.00.0-33.3
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
2014-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.1
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/6/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age195 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades12
# Profitable2
% Profitable16.7%
Avg trade duration14.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown37.2%
drawdown periodOct 04, 2010 - Oct 11, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.6%
Avg win$788
Avg loss$1,844

Ratios

W:L ratio0.09
Sharpe Ratio-0.85
Sortino Ratio-1
Calmar Ratio-0.24

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life583.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-622.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-2.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity57.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss26.7%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,844
Avg Win$788
# Winners2
Sum Trade PL (losers)$18,440
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,576
Num Months Winners3
# Losers10
% Winners16.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table193

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)21216.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)353.61
Avg Trade Length14.70
Last Trade Ago5441

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.88

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.24
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.88
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats6.59
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.13
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.80

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.09
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.06
df52
t-2.26
p0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.11
Sortino ratio-1.09
Upside Potential Ratio0.23
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms10
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error51
t(b)0.81
p(b)0.21
t(a)-2.39
p(a)0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.98
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean-0.09
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.07
df52
t-2.28
p0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Sortino ratio-1.09
Upside Potential Ratio0.22
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms10
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error51
t(b)0.79
p(b)0.22
t(a)-2.40
p(a)0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.88
Jensen alpha (a)-0.11
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.08
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.64
df1166
t-1.36
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.29
Sortino ratio-0.87
Upside Potential Ratio2.52
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms1024
N negative terms143
N of observations1167
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1165
t(b)-5.49
p(b)0.60
t(a)-0.85
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)1.28
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.09
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.71
df1166
t-1.49
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.22
Sortino ratio-0.94
Upside Potential Ratio2.42
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms1024
N negative terms143
N of observations1167
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1165
t(b)-5.37
p(b)0.60
t(a)-1.06
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)1.46
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.31
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.23
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations53
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations1167
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low143
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high104
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.58
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.35
Quartile 10.35
Median0.35
Quartile 30.35
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-400042784
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)372
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.56
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.23
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 24 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QLD long460Oct 13, 2011Oct 18, 2011$364
QID long41Oct 6, 2011Oct 11, 2011($721)
QLD long1200Aug 24, 2011Oct 4, 2011($2,641)
QLD long1460Aug 4, 2011Aug 19, 2011($4,162)
QID long125Jun 14, 2011Jul 19, 2011($2,324)
QLD long680Jun 1, 2011Jun 8, 2011($1,224)
QLD long1360Apr 21, 2011May 23, 2011($1,709)
QID long163Feb 22, 2011Apr 14, 2011($367)
QID long118Jan 20, 2011Feb 7, 2011($1,645)
QID long197Oct 27, 2010Jan 12, 2011($2,397)
QID long43Oct 4, 2010Oct 15, 2010($1,306)
QLD long1000Sep 13, 2010Sep 28, 2010$1,191

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.