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Killed System

Stocks · Started Aug 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.8%
Max Drawdown
40.6%
Trades
7
Win Trades
28.6%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
1.0%

About this strategy

Killed System

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010-0.225.013.0-13.4-3.417.8
2011-3.1-7.7-5.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-15.5
20120.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
2014-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/25/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age195 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades7
# Profitable2
% Profitable28.6%
Avg trade duration15.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown40.6%
drawdown periodNov 09, 2010 - Sept 28, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.8%
Avg win$8,854
Avg loss$3,397

Ratios

W:L ratio1.04
Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Sortino Ratio-0.40
Calmar Ratio0.01

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life615.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-93.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity54.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,397
Avg Win$8,854
# Winners2
Sum Trade PL (losers)$16,984
Sum Trade PL (winners)$17,708
Num Months Winners2
# Losers5
% Winners28.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table194

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)22823.02
Avg Position Time (hrs)380.38
Avg Trade Length15.80
Last Trade Ago5651

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.41

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades25.30
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)7.99
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.02
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats97.64
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.06
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.02
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.02
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df29
t0.14
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio0.17
Upside Potential Ratio1.40
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms28
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error28
t(b)1.08
p(b)0.14
t(a)-0.29
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.00
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.02
df29
t-0.03
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Sortino ratio-0.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.18
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms28
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error28
t(b)0.99
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.39
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.00
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df867
t0.05
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.27
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio3.08
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms818
N of observations868
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error866
t(b)1.97
p(b)0.02
t(a)-0.08
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean-0.00
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.03
df867
t-0.05
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio-0.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.98
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms818
N of observations868
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error866
t(b)1.92
p(b)0.03
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.07
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.09
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.22558999050977e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)4.28551011254842e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations30
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-30.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations868
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low48
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.30
Quartile 10.30
Median0.30
Quartile 30.30
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.92
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1784
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.05
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.40
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 2 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long2900Mar 15, 2011Mar 16, 2011($2,934)
TQQQ long2568Feb 1, 2011Feb 23, 2011($650)
SQQQ long128Jan 31, 2011Feb 1, 2011($5,307)
SQQQ long118Dec 8, 2010Dec 10, 2010($1,890)
TQQQ long3568Dec 1, 2010Dec 2, 2010$2
SQQQ long112Nov 16, 2010Nov 24, 2010($6,220)
TYH long1912Sep 1, 2010Nov 16, 2010$17,694

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.