R2000 Timer
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 15.8%
- Max Drawdown
- 73.7%
- Trades
- 14
- Win Trades
- 57.1%
- Profit Factor
- 16
- Win Months
- 59.3%
About this strategy
On Buy signals it buys a positively correlated index ETF (like UWM). On Sell signals it buys a negatively correlated (or inverse) index ETF (like RWM or TWM).
Trading signals are usually sent by 6:30 am eastern time, giving you at least 3 hours to place your trades before market open at 9:30 am.
Unlike a lot of other systems, all the Buys and Sells conveniently take place at market open. This eliminates the need to constantly monitor your e-mail during the day.
The R2000 Timer is a proven investment system designed for serious, long-term investors for accumulating and preserving wealth through smart investing.
Remember, at 36% compounded annual return, $100,000 grows to $2,164,656 in just 10 years. The 36% annualized return is obviously not a guarantee but a goal for the R2000 Timer.
But to reap the rewards, it's important for you to stick with the program through all the inevitable ups and downs that are endemic in the stock market. The R2000 Timer is designed to protect your portfolio from large drops and drawdowns that occur due to bear markets.
However, it is not supposed to catch every small twist and turn in the market. So there will be times when the portfolio drops suddenly before its self-adaptive approach kicks in. That is why its important for you to be mentally prepared and be able to live through a 15-20% temporary drawdown, without abandoning the program at the worst possible time.
The R2000 Timer is suitable for aggressive investors looking for high reward by taking higher risk. However moderate and conservative investors may also use it by using proper position sizing, as explained below.
MANUAL TRADING
-------------------------
Let's assume that you start with an account size of $10,000 that you've decided to allocate to the R2000 Timer system.
First, take a look at the Model Account Status in the lower right corner of the R2000 Timer system page -- http://r2000timer.collective2.com -- and make a note of the Total System Equity value.
Now divide the dollar amount you have allocated to this investment strategy ($10,000 in the example above) by the total system equity. For example, lets assume that the current total system equity is $15,000. Dividing $10,000 by $15,000, we get 0.66. That's your initial factor.
AGRESSIVE INVESTORS -- Multiply the number of shares we are holding in the portfolio for UWM by your initial factor (0.66 in the example above). So, if we are holding 500 shares of UWM in the portfolio, you will multiply it by 0.66 to get 330 shares.
MODERATE INVESTORS -- Take the initial factor and multiply it by 0.75. If your initial factor, as shown in the example above was 0.66, you'll multiply it by 0.75 to get your final factor, which is 0.495. So, if we are holding 500 shares of UWM in the portfolio, you will multiply it by 0.495 to get 247 shares.
CONSERVATIVE INVESTORS -- Take the initial factor and multiply it by 0.5. If your initial factor, as shown in the example above, was 0.66, you'll multiply it by 0.5 to get your final factor, which is 0.33. So, if we are holding 500 shares of UWM in the portfolio, you will multiply it by 0.33 to get 165 shares.
Auto-trading may be employed to make it even more easier to trade this system. See https://r2000timer.collective2.com/static/aboutAutoTrade.htm for details
AUTO TRADING
--------------------
To determine your scaling, follow these simple steps.
1. Take a look at the Model Account Status in the lower right corner of the R2000 Timer system page and make a note of the Total System Equity value.
2. Now divide the dollar amount you have allocated to this investment strategy (for example $10,000) and divide it by the total system equity. Assuming that the current total system equity is $15,000, dividing $10,000 by $15,000, we get 0.66. That's your factor.
3. (a) Aggressive investors should multiply their factor (0.66 in the above example) by 100 to get their scaling, which comes to 66% in this case. So you'll enter 66 in the first box and leave the second box blank when setting up AutoTrading.
(b) Moderate investors should multiply their factor (0.66 in the above example) by 75 to get their scaling, which comes to 49% in this case. So you'll enter 49 in the first box and leave the second box blank when setting up AutoTrading.
(c) Conservative investors should multiply their factor (0.66 in the above example) by 60 to get their scaling, which comes to 33% in this case. So you'll enter 33 in the first box and leave the second box blank when setting up AutoTrading.
Got Questions? Send them to us at support@r2000timer.com
Roger Williams
Editor, R2000 Timer
www.R2000Timer.com
Wealthquest International Inc.
P.S. Get your FREE Weekly Wealth Letter membership at http://WeeklyWealthLetter.com
P.P.S. If you see a "charge" in your credit card online account, please rest assured that it is just a "pre-authorization" that Collective2 -- our billing and trade tracking service -- has obtained from your credit card company. Your credit card will not be billed till the trial period is over. Please read a note about credit card pre-authorization from the founder of Collective2 below.
What is a Credit Card Pre-Authorization?
----------------------------------------------------------
Sometimes, alarmed customers call us and say, "Why have you charged my credit card? I subscribed to a free trial period, and I shouldn't be billed yet!"
Here's the answer: Don't worry. We did not bill your credit card. We simply asked your credit card company for a "pre-authorization."
Let me explain. Nowadays, credit card companies make it very difficult for both the customers who use their credit cards, and for the companies (like Collective2) that accept credit cards.
In order to prevent onerous credit card fees, Collective2 (and most Internet companies) are forced to do a "pre-authorization" of credit cards. That means, before we allow a free trial period, we electronically contact your credit card company, and say to them: "Customer John Doe claims that he is the owner of the following credit card number: 123456. If he chooses to pay for a subscription at the end of a free trial, and if we bill him for $X dollars, will you accept that charge?" Your credit card company / bank responds with a simple yes or no. That's a "pre-authorization."
Here's what's important. That is *not* a charge on your card. If you allow your free trial period to elapse, or you choose not to subscribe to the trading system, NO CHARGE IS MADE. Instead, the "pre-auth" disappears.
If you have any doubt, feel free to speak to your bank or credit card company on the telephone and ask them about the transaction which concerns you. They will confirm that no charge has taken place, but rather that Collective2 asked for a non-charge "pre-authorization."
Hopefully, this explanation has answered your question. However, we understand how sensitive the entire subject of credit card transactions can be. Your trust and confidence in Collective2 is crucial for our business to survive. Therefore, if you have any questions whatsoever, don't hesitate to contact us.
Sincerely,
Matthew Klein
Founder, Collective2 LLC
E-mail : help@collective2.com
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 6.1 | -16.0 | 22.3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 23.9 | 52.1 | ||||||
| 2011 | -0.3 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -4.1 | 7.9 | -9.6 | -2.9 | 14.5 | -42.1 | 32.2 | -24.5 | 12.8 | -29.1 |
| 2012 | 20.9 | 10.6 | 2.5 | -5.2 | -24.1 | 24.4 | -5.0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | -6.9 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 43.3 |
| 2013 | 16.5 | 1.8 | 10.0 | -2.8 | 14.6 | -3.2 | 19.4 | -7.4 | 14.2 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 112.2 |
| 2014 | -6.4 | 10.9 | -2.1 | -10.2 | 2.9 | 13.8 | -15.6 | 13.6 | -17.2 | 19.0 | 0.1 | 9.3 | 10.4 |
| 2015 | -8.4 | 12.6 | 2.4 | -5.7 | 4.8 | 0.5 | -1.9 | -13.5 | -12.3 | 13.1 | 8.7 | -12.7 | -16.2 |
| 2016 | -19.5 | -0.9 | 18.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 18.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | -11.1 | 28.5 | 4.8 | 47.0 |
| 2017 | 1.9 | 3.7 | -3.5 | 4.3 | -0.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | -6.4 | 16.2 | 2.2 | 5.2 | -1.3 | 29.3 |
| 2018 | 5.3 | -2.5 | -4.3 | 3.4 | 13.1 | -1.0 | 2.5 | 8.7 | -4.2 | -25.4 | 0.1 | -22.1 | -29.5 |
| 2019 | 26.4 | 13.8 | -5.6 | 6.9 | -1.1 | 0.0 | -12.1 | 15.4 | -2.1 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 57.0 | |
| 2020 | -1.2 | -22.2 | -48.0 | 28.1 | 15.6 | -6.3 | 16.9 | 14.6 | -13.9 | 19.1 | 30.2 | 19.1 | 18.0 |
| 2021 | 13.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | -3.3 | 6.0 | -9.9 | 7.1 | -6.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | -7.9 | 25.0 |
| 2022 | -21.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | -21.0 | 2.8 | -19.5 | 20.7 | -7.4 | -16.6 | 20.7 | 1.7 | -16.4 | -47.7 |
| 2023 | 20.8 | -0.6 | -17.0 | 5.2 | -2.6 | 5.4 | 20.1 | -10.4 | -12.8 | -16.0 | 18.5 | 33.7 | 34.5 |
| 2024 | -11.0 | 9.4 | 3.1 | -9.4 | 6.8 | -4.0 | 6.0 | 10.8 | -0.6 | -1.7 | 18.4 | -14.2 | 8.8 |
| 2025 | 5.1 | -11.8 | -10.4 | -13.5 | 14.4 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 9.2 | -4.9 | 7.1 | 19.9 |
| 2026 | 7.0 | 0.2 | -13.0 | 25.3 | 9.6 | 2.9 | -4.1 | 2.4 | -4.7 | 23.4 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 7/23/2010 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $10,000 |
| Age | 196 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 14 |
| # Profitable | 8 |
| % Profitable | 57.1% |
| Avg trade duration | 406.9 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 73.7% |
| drawdown period | Sept 04, 2018 - March 19, 2020 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 15.8% |
| Avg win | $13,017 |
| Avg loss | $1,118 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 16.03 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.43 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.63 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.92 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.69 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 584.9% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | 372.5% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 15.8% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.2% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 16.0% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 10.8% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $1,118 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $13,016 |
| # Winners | 8 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $6,707 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $104,132 |
| Num Months Winners | 115 |
| # Losers | 6 |
| % Winners | 57.1% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 3378 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 195 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 586002.56 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 9766.71 |
| Avg Trade Length | 406.90 |
| Last Trade Ago | 5435 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.91 |
| Treynor Index | 0.03 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.08 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.04 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.09 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.08 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 0.14 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 0.20 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 5.51 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 26.90 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.06 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.01 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 8.22 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.83 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.94 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.89 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.88 |
| df | 55 |
| t | 1.92 |
| p | 0.03 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.04 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.81 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.04 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.80 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.24 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.82 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.42 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.59 |
| Upside SD | 0.88 |
| Downside SD | 0.37 |
| N nonnegative terms | 34 |
| N negative terms | 22 |
| N of observations | 56 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.45 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.83 |
| SD of predictor | 0.32 |
| SD of criterion | 0.94 |
| Covariance | 0.26 |
| r | 0.88 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 2.55 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.32 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.21 |
| DF error | 54 |
| t(b) | 13.33 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | -1.41 |
| p(a) | 0.92 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.16 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.93 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.78 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.14 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.33 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.32 |
| Mean | 0.50 |
| SD | 0.78 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.64 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.63 |
| df | 55 |
| t | 1.38 |
| p | 0.09 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.28 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.55 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.28 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.54 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.05 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.50 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.18 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.68 |
| Upside SD | 0.62 |
| Downside SD | 0.47 |
| N nonnegative terms | 34 |
| N negative terms | 22 |
| N of observations | 56 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.40 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.50 |
| SD of predictor | 0.29 |
| SD of criterion | 0.78 |
| Covariance | 0.19 |
| r | 0.83 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 2.20 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.38 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.19 |
| DF error | 54 |
| t(b) | 11.06 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | -1.78 |
| p(a) | 0.96 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.80 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.60 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.82 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.05 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.23 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.38 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.28 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.34 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.10 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.20 |
| Mean | 0.84 |
| SD | 0.82 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.02 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.02 |
| df | 1232 |
| t | 2.21 |
| p | 0.47 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.11 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.92 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.11 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.92 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.51 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 8.50 |
| Upside part of mean | 4.71 |
| Downside part of mean | -3.87 |
| Upside SD | 0.61 |
| Downside SD | 0.55 |
| N nonnegative terms | 698 |
| N negative terms | 535 |
| N of observations | 1233 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.46 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.84 |
| SD of predictor | 0.31 |
| SD of criterion | 0.82 |
| Covariance | 0.18 |
| r | 0.72 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.93 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.05 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.32 |
| DF error | 1231 |
| t(b) | 36.60 |
| p(b) | 0.08 |
| t(a) | -0.18 |
| p(a) | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.82 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.03 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.56 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.47 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.43 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.05 |
| Mean | 0.50 |
| SD | 0.83 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.60 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.60 |
| df | 1232 |
| t | 1.30 |
| p | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.31 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.31 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.50 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.82 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.52 |
| Upside part of mean | 4.54 |
| Downside part of mean | -4.04 |
| Upside SD | 0.57 |
| Downside SD | 0.60 |
| N nonnegative terms | 698 |
| N negative terms | 535 |
| N of observations | 1233 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.41 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.50 |
| SD of predictor | 0.31 |
| SD of criterion | 0.83 |
| Covariance | 0.19 |
| r | 0.73 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 1.95 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.31 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.32 |
| DF error | 1231 |
| t(b) | 37.87 |
| p(b) | 0.08 |
| t(a) | -1.17 |
| p(a) | 0.52 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.85 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.06 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.82 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.21 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.25 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.31 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.10 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.06 |
| Mean | 1.98 |
| SD | 1.03 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.92 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.90 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 1.35 |
| p | 0.44 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.87 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.69 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.88 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 4.69 |
| Sortino ratio | 3.09 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 11.13 |
| Upside part of mean | 7.12 |
| Downside part of mean | -5.15 |
| Upside SD | 0.81 |
| Downside SD | 0.64 |
| N nonnegative terms | 78 |
| N negative terms | 53 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.32 |
| Mean of criterion | 1.98 |
| SD of predictor | 0.36 |
| SD of criterion | 1.03 |
| Covariance | 0.27 |
| r | 0.73 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 2.11 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.81 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.50 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 12.12 |
| p(b) | 0.08 |
| t(a) | -0.78 |
| p(a) | 0.54 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.76 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.45 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -2.84 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.23 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.94 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.81 |
| Mean | 1.45 |
| SD | 1.02 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.42 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.41 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 1.01 |
| p | 0.46 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.36 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 4.20 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.36 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 4.19 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.15 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 10.11 |
| Upside part of mean | 6.82 |
| Downside part of mean | -5.37 |
| Upside SD | 0.77 |
| Downside SD | 0.67 |
| N nonnegative terms | 78 |
| N negative terms | 53 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.25 |
| Mean of criterion | 1.45 |
| SD of predictor | 0.35 |
| SD of criterion | 1.02 |
| Covariance | 0.27 |
| r | 0.74 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 2.13 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -1.21 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.48 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 12.47 |
| p(b) | 0.08 |
| t(a) | -1.22 |
| p(a) | 0.57 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.79 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.08 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 2.46 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -3.19 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.76 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.68 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -1.21 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.09 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.12 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.04 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.08 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 56 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.46 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.93 |
| Median | 1.03 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.18 |
| Maximum | 2.56 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.82 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.10 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.36 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.25 |
| Number outliers low | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.46 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers high | 2.56 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.11 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.17 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.24 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.01 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.19 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.27 |
| Number of observations | 1233 |
| Minimum | 0.61 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.98 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.02 |
| Maximum | 1.50 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.95 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.01 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.06 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.04 |
| Number outliers low | 54 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.04 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.88 |
| Number of outliers high | 54 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.04 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.13 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.33 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.05 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.09 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.20 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.05 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.08 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 0.85 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.97 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.04 |
| Maximum | 1.22 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.93 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.02 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.09 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.07 |
| Number outliers low | 3 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.86 |
| Number of outliers high | 3 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.20 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.58 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.07 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.07 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.40 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.07 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.09 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 8 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.02 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.12 |
| Median | 0.23 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.38 |
| Maximum | 0.61 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.06 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.16 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.32 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.52 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.26 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 57 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.03 |
| Median | 0.06 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.11 |
| Maximum | 0.70 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.04 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.09 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.28 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.09 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 6 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.44 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.39 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.29 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.54 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.39 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.31 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.57 |
| Number of observations | 13 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.04 |
| Median | 0.09 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.15 |
| Maximum | 0.43 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.07 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.14 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.30 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.11 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.15 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.37 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.13 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.31 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.43 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 2.18 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.36 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -424483008 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 562 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.5% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 1.96 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.64 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 1.06 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.23 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 1.88 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 1.97 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.64 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.92 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 2.30 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 6.52 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 2.13 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 3.27 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 7.67 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 10.88 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 27.98 |
Trading record
Placed 44 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWM | long | 46 | Oct 20, 2011 | Oct 24, 2011 | ($474) |
| UWM | long | 500 | Sep 27, 2011 | Oct 20, 2011 | $487 |
| TWM | long | 43 | Sep 22, 2011 | Sep 27, 2011 | ($1,159) |
| UWM | long | 540 | Sep 8, 2011 | Sep 22, 2011 | ($2,504) |
| TWM | long | 16 | Sep 7, 2011 | Sep 8, 2011 | ($114) |
| UWM | long | 575 | Aug 24, 2011 | Sep 7, 2011 | $279 |
| TWM | long | 18 | Aug 3, 2011 | Aug 24, 2011 | $537 |
| UWM | long | 385 | Jun 14, 2011 | Jul 27, 2011 | $1,141 |
| UWM | long | 388 | May 6, 2011 | Jun 10, 2011 | ($2,189) |
| TWM | long | 98 | Apr 4, 2011 | May 6, 2011 | $219 |
| UWM | long | 440 | Mar 22, 2011 | Apr 4, 2011 | $1,368 |
| TWM | long | 27 | Mar 11, 2011 | Mar 22, 2011 | ($286) |
| UWM | long | 564 | Jul 23, 2010 | Mar 11, 2011 | $7,004 |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.