Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Ben

Forex · Started Jul 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.1%
Max Drawdown
62.1%
Trades
276
Win Trades
86.2%
Profit Factor
5.10
Win Months
51.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20108.313.812.32.0-11.310.238.1
20118.26.75.5-10.02.511.93.0-1.1-18.618.612.19.451.9
2012-11.9-49.125.028.736.6-23.1-12.89.5-1.40.2-6.85.4-29.8
2013-5.512.2-5.62.236.720.0-3.710.2-11.5-6.313.86.378.4
20145.9-6.7-9.6-0.1-1.3-6.05.02.020.9-1.78.48.523.7
201510.6-1.14.1-4.21.64.27.63.90.9-4.11.6-1.724.6
20164.1-0.9-10.10.39.3-6.7-0.6-1.1-1.8-0.44.85.91.2
2017-7.3-2.51.23.31.6-6.3-6.71.6-0.76.92.3-5.1-12.1
2018-6.96.23.14.4-1.03.80.41.81.72.8-4.65.617.7
2019-2.5-0.11.70.71.00.5-1.36.4-0.5-3.02.3-4.01.0
20203.55.114.3-12.0-2.5-4.0-5.1-3.96.6-0.3-7.2-4.4-11.8
2021-1.0-1.82.6-3.91.33.05.3-1.44.6-7.58.2-1.17.5
20222.0-1.4-5.59.8-4.08.2-2.94.85.51.7-6.3-0.010.7
2023-6.17.01.4-0.93.3-2.71.02.80.72.3-5.9-4.1-2.1
20246.7-0.70.7-0.2-2.3-0.42.4-4.2-2.33.93.52.69.5
20251.10.10.3-2.3-0.5-0.80.90.40.00.00.00.0-0.9
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/20/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age197 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades276
# Profitable238
% Profitable86.2%
Avg trade duration39.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown62.1%
drawdown periodJan 18, 2012 - Feb 29, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)10.1%
Avg win$1,017
Avg loss$1,252

Ratios

W:L ratio5.09
Sharpe Ratio0.35
Sortino Ratio0.57
Calmar Ratio0.72

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.20
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life597.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-227.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity11.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,252
Avg Win$1,017
# Winners238
Sum Trade PL (losers)$47,582
Sum Trade PL (winners)$241,997
Num Months Winners101
# Losers38
% Winners86.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table195

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)56128.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)935.47
Avg Trade Length39
Last Trade Ago385

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta-0.30
Treynor Index-0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.44
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.76
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats96.87
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.28
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.56
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.77

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.47
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df54
t1.96
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio1.69
Upside Potential Ratio2.93
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms19
N of observations55
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.47
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance-0.03
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.69
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error53
t(b)-1.70
p(b)0.95
t(a)2.57
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.69
Mean0.34
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df54
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio0.97
Upside Potential Ratio2.12
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms19
N of observations55
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance-0.03
r-0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error53
t(b)-1.77
p(b)0.96
t(a)2.11
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.49
SD0.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.88
df1200
t1.89
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.80
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio8.12
Upside part of mean2.74
Downside part of mean-2.25
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms664
N negative terms537
N of observations1201
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.55
Covariance-0.02
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.56
Mean Square Error0.30
DF error1199
t(b)-3.25
p(b)0.56
t(a)2.18
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.56
Mean0.34
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df1200
t1.35
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.55
Sortino ratio0.95
Upside Potential Ratio7.44
Upside part of mean2.65
Downside part of mean-2.31
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms664
N negative terms537
N of observations1201
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.02
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.29
DF error1199
t(b)-3.47
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.63
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.15
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df130
t0.44
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.40
Sortino ratio0.88
Upside Potential Ratio7.83
Upside part of mean1.30
Downside part of mean-1.15
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms89
N negative terms42
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.03
r-0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)-5.00
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.57
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
Mean0.12
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df130
t0.36
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.28
Sortino ratio0.71
Upside Potential Ratio7.63
Upside part of mean1.29
Downside part of mean-1.17
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms89
N negative terms42
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.26
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.03
r-0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)-4.99
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.43
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations55
Minimum0.54
Quartile 10.98
Median1.03
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.67
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.65
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.75
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.49
Number of observations1201
Minimum0.77
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low53
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high47
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.05
Median0.12
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.46
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations57
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.56
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.36
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.35
Number of observations7
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-427467360
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)42
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.87
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.69
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.82
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.05
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.23
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.40

Trading record

Placed 270 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/USD short400Jan 19, 2012Aug 21, 2025$160,482
NZD/USD short200Jan 19, 2012Aug 21, 2025$600
GBP/USD short400Jan 17, 2012Apr 11, 2012($19,904)
EUR/USD short400Jan 17, 2012Apr 11, 2012($10,511)
AUD/USD short50Jan 18, 2012Jan 19, 2012($51)
NZD/USD short250Jan 17, 2012Jan 19, 2012$1,135
USD/CAD long50Jan 16, 2012Jan 18, 2012$5
EUR/USD short100Jan 17, 2012Jan 17, 2012$514
NZD/USD short50Jan 17, 2012Jan 17, 2012$100
GBP/USD long100Jan 16, 2012Jan 17, 2012$473
AUD/USD long50Jan 16, 2012Jan 17, 2012$577
EUR/USD short100Jan 16, 2012Jan 16, 2012$102
USD/CAD long100Dec 22, 2011Jan 8, 2012$447
AUD/USD short100Dec 21, 2011Dec 28, 2011$561
EUR/USD short50Dec 21, 2011Dec 21, 2011$162
AUD/USD short100Dec 20, 2011Dec 21, 2011$103
EUR/USD short100Dec 20, 2011Dec 21, 2011$390
GBP/USD short50Dec 21, 2011Dec 21, 2011$354
EUR/USD short50Dec 20, 2011Dec 20, 2011$228
AUD/USD long100Dec 13, 2011Dec 20, 2011$34
EUR/USD long100Dec 13, 2011Dec 20, 2011$601
EUR/USD long100Dec 12, 2011Dec 13, 2011$322
AUD/USD long50Dec 12, 2011Dec 13, 2011$190
USD/CAD short50Dec 9, 2011Dec 12, 2011($162)
AUD/USD short50Dec 9, 2011Dec 12, 2011$312
USD/CAD short50Dec 9, 2011Dec 9, 2011$79
NZD/USD long100Dec 9, 2011Dec 9, 2011$184
AUD/USD short100Dec 9, 2011Dec 9, 2011$465
AUD/USD long100Dec 8, 2011Dec 8, 2011$110
GBP/USD short100Dec 7, 2011Dec 8, 2011$725

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.