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KTRAK

Futures · Started Jul 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
2401
Win Trades
67.5%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
4.1%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010-2.6102.2-79.8846.139.72.0434.6
20114.91.41137.65.5-47.2-418.7-0.30.0-0.10.00.00.0-2442.7
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.0-27.40.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
2015-0.00.0-0.00.00.0-9.40.00.00.0-0.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/4/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age197 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades2401
# Profitable1620
% Profitable67.5%
Avg trade duration4.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJuly 04, 2010 - Oct 24, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$205
Avg loss$424

Ratios

W:L ratio1
Sharpe Ratio0.76
Sortino Ratio1.46
Calmar Ratio-0.54

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life638.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-18207.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$424
Avg Win$205
# Winners1620
Sum Trade PL (losers)$330,853
Sum Trade PL (winners)$331,320
Num Months Winners8
# Losers781
% Winners67.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table12

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)249.18
Avg Position Time (hrs)4.15
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago5552

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-237.14
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.21
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.16
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.99
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.10
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats73.51
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.02
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.66
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.20
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.25

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.99
SD1.93
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df93
t1.44
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio1.71
Upside Potential Ratio2.47
Upside part of mean1.43
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD1.85
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms87
N negative terms7
N of observations94
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.99
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion1.93
Covariance0.02
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.87
Mean Square Error3.75
DF error92
t(b)0.47
p(b)0.32
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.33
Treynor index (mean / b)2.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.87
Mean-0.77
SD2.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.27
df93
t-0.77
p0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Sortino ratio-0.29
Upside Potential Ratio0.29
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-1.53
Upside SD0.92
Downside SD2.65
N nonnegative terms87
N negative terms7
N of observations94
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion-0.77
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion2.81
Covariance0.03
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.94
Mean Square Error7.94
DF error92
t(b)0.51
p(b)0.30
t(a)-0.89
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.94
VaR(95%)0.75
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.82
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean1.67
SD2.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df2054
t1.80
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.34
Sortino ratio1.92
Upside Potential Ratio4.04
Upside part of mean3.52
Downside part of mean-1.85
Upside SD2.46
Downside SD0.87
N nonnegative terms1965
N negative terms90
N of observations2055
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion1.67
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion2.61
Covariance0.04
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.46
Mean Square Error6.77
DF error2053
t(b)2.99
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.57
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.29
Treynor index (mean / b)2.29
Jensen alpha (a)1.46
Mean-0.77
SD2.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.27
df2054
t-0.74
p0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Sortino ratio-0.29
Upside Potential Ratio0.90
Upside part of mean2.37
Downside part of mean-3.14
Upside SD1.22
Downside SD2.64
N nonnegative terms1965
N negative terms90
N of observations2055
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion-0.77
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion2.90
Covariance0.02
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.88
Mean Square Error8.43
DF error2053
t(b)1.57
p(b)0.06
t(a)-0.85
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.81
Jensen alpha (a)-0.88
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.31
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.24
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.18
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations94
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum4.13
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.47
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.51
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high2.60
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.53
Number of observations2055
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum5.31
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low90
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high128
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.35
Median0.52
Quartile 30.76
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.19
Mean of quarter 20.52
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.40
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.11
Median0.27
Quartile 30.50
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.19
Mean of quarter 30.37
Mean of quarter 40.74
Inter Quartile Range0.39
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.83
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.91
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.88
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.11
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-418184608
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1938
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.66
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1539 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
C Z1short1Jun 28, 2011Jun 29, 2011($908)
C Z1long1Jun 26, 2011Jun 27, 2011($158)
C Z1long1Jun 26, 2011Jun 26, 2011($208)
C N1long10Jun 22, 2011Jun 23, 2011($19,643)
C Z1long5Jun 22, 2011Jun 23, 2011($6,103)
QGC Q1long1Jun 22, 2011Jun 22, 2011($318)
S N1short4Jun 22, 2011Jun 22, 2011($382)
S N1long6Jun 22, 2011Jun 22, 2011($2,148)
C N1long15Jun 22, 2011Jun 22, 2011($15,890)
S N1long5Jun 22, 2011Jun 22, 2011($1,103)
S N1long5Jun 22, 2011Jun 22, 2011$85
S N1long6Jun 21, 2011Jun 22, 2011($1,398)
QGC Q1long4Jun 22, 2011Jun 22, 2011$2,648
QGC Q1short4Jun 21, 2011Jun 22, 2011$182
C Z1short5Jun 21, 2011Jun 22, 2011$2,651
BP U1short3Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011$77
QGC Q1long3Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011$6
ES U1short5Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011$398
QGC Q1short5Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011($1,265)
C N1short10Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011$49
QGC Q1long3Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011$12
BO N1long5Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011$50
SM N1long5Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011$460
C U1long10Jun 21, 2011Jun 21, 2011$545
C N1long6Jun 20, 2011Jun 21, 2011$1,561
QGC Q1long2Jun 20, 2011Jun 21, 2011$224
S N1short5Jun 20, 2011Jun 20, 2011($693)
C N1long10Jun 20, 2011Jun 20, 2011($3,010)
C Z1short10Jun 20, 2011Jun 20, 2011($709)
C Z1long10Jun 20, 2011Jun 20, 2011$814

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.