INVERTERATE
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 8.6%
- Max Drawdown
- —
- Trades
- 415
- Win Trades
- 68.2%
- Profit Factor
- 1.20
- Win Months
- 6.6%
About this strategy
Trade signals are generated nightly around 7pm and can range in number from 0 to 150+ and average about 50 per night.
Manually trading through IB TWS BasketTrader is the most cost effective way to trade this system. Orders can be received in csv format and uploaded to TWS BasketTrader daily. Please email for step by step instructions.
Inverterate's core objective is to minimize risk and maximize return. Fidelity Wealth Lab is used to maintain the strategies, generate orders and perform backtesting. Backtesting results over a 10 year period boast a historical exposure of <25%, a historical maximum drawdown of less than 8% and historical annualized returns of 49%. Enclosed are backtesting results:
http://jhltrading.onlinewebshop.net/index.html
Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results.
**************Note on Margin and Collective2******************
Inverterate does NOT use margin, however, there is one scenario specific to Collective2 where margin might be used briefly. It seems to be a timing issue and it will only occur at the market open of a particularly weak trading day.
Collective2 allows an unlimited number of orders as long as there is at least $1 of buying power available. Collective2 will execute any order that opens below the entry price. After executing these orders it will perform a buying power check. If the buying power is exceeded, Collective2 will reverse orders randomly in a margin call until the buying power is back in line. This scenario might happen once every 2 or 3 months.
The bottom line is the only sure way not to use margin in Collective2 is to trade on a cash account with no margin.
FYI, as for the 6% drawdown in June, I had some issues setting up the system. First I did not realize Collective2 provides 100% margin as a default to all new systems. This caused my system to open up 200% worth of starting capital in positions in one day during the big June down turn. Once I found out I exited immediately and started from scratch. Hence the big draw down.
*******************FEE INCREASE NOTICE*********************
Beginning June 30th 2011, the subscription fee will increase from $5 per quarter if profitable to $5 per month if profitable.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | -6.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 7.0 | -1.0 | 5.3 | 13.5 | |||||
| 2011 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.4 | -8.7 | -4.4 | -7.0 | -0.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | -5.1 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 6/22/2010 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $50,000 |
| Age | 198 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 415 |
| # Profitable | 283 |
| % Profitable | 68.2% |
| Avg trade duration | 3.0 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | — |
| drawdown period | — |
| Annual return (compounded) | 1.0% |
| Avg win | $156 |
| Avg loss | $269 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.24 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.27 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.33 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.21 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.14 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 589.4% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -37.8% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 8.6% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 1.0% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 19.0% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.9% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $269 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $156 |
| # Winners | 283 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $35,495 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $44,074 |
| Num Months Winners | 19 |
| # Losers | 132 |
| % Winners | 68.2% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 12 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 196 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 4359.48 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 72.66 |
| Avg Trade Length | 3 |
| Last Trade Ago | 5382 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.04 |
| Treynor Index | -0.10 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 14.01 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 0.41 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 50.50 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 40.60 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.73 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.50 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.07 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.05 |
|---|---|
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.02 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 71 |
|---|---|
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
Trading record
Placed 451 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSC | long | 80 | Dec 13, 2011 | Dec 20, 2011 | ($116) |
| CVS | long | 159 | Dec 19, 2011 | Dec 20, 2011 | $247 |
| MAT | long | 212 | Dec 19, 2011 | Dec 20, 2011 | $64 |
| WMB | long | 189 | Dec 14, 2011 | Dec 19, 2011 | $81 |
| FFIV | long | 55 | Dec 14, 2011 | Dec 16, 2011 | $123 |
| ATVI | long | 493 | Dec 14, 2011 | Dec 16, 2011 | $89 |
| CSCO | long | 323 | Dec 14, 2011 | Dec 16, 2011 | $114 |
| AEP | long | 150 | Dec 14, 2011 | Dec 15, 2011 | $71 |
| STX | long | 384 | Dec 14, 2011 | Dec 15, 2011 | $207 |
| MA | long | 160 | Dec 14, 2011 | Dec 15, 2011 | $98 |
| SO | long | 137 | Nov 23, 2011 | Nov 25, 2011 | $39 |
| CHKP | long | 107 | Nov 17, 2011 | Nov 23, 2011 | ($58) |
| ATVI | long | 468 | Nov 15, 2011 | Nov 23, 2011 | ($154) |
| CELG | long | 188 | Nov 21, 2011 | Nov 22, 2011 | $23 |
| WFM | long | 180 | Nov 21, 2011 | Nov 22, 2011 | $31 |
| AAPL | long | 107 | Nov 21, 2011 | Nov 22, 2011 | $45 |
| DLTR | long | 156 | Nov 21, 2011 | Nov 22, 2011 | $176 |
| BMY | long | 190 | Nov 17, 2011 | Nov 18, 2011 | $64 |
| AAPL | long | 107 | Nov 10, 2011 | Nov 15, 2011 | $65 |
| NKE | long | 252 | Nov 9, 2011 | Nov 10, 2011 | $108 |
| DLTR | long | 148 | Nov 3, 2011 | Nov 4, 2011 | $132 |
| BMY | long | 185 | Nov 1, 2011 | Nov 3, 2011 | $113 |
| APOL | long | 129 | Nov 2, 2011 | Nov 3, 2011 | $210 |
| ERTS | long | 260 | Nov 1, 2011 | Nov 2, 2011 | $271 |
| MON | long | 82 | Nov 1, 2011 | Nov 2, 2011 | $203 |
| TGT | long | 111 | Nov 1, 2011 | Nov 2, 2011 | $127 |
| ALXN | long | 91 | Nov 1, 2011 | Nov 2, 2011 | $261 |
| MSFT | long | 221 | Oct 26, 2011 | Oct 27, 2011 | $221 |
| GMCR | long | 72 | Oct 17, 2011 | Oct 20, 2011 | ($733) |
| V | long | 1120 | Oct 4, 2011 | Oct 5, 2011 | $162 |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.