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Futures Wiz

Futures · Started May 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.4%
Max Drawdown
56.0%
Trades
131
Win Trades
69.5%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
1.5%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201028.8-4.8-11.1-24.78.624.0-2.9-1.06.3
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/6/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age199 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades131
# Profitable91
% Profitable69.5%
Avg trade duration9.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown56.0%
drawdown periodJune 11, 2010 - Oct 04, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)0.4%
Avg win$616
Avg loss$1,207

Ratios

W:L ratio1.16
Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Sortino Ratio-0.01
Calmar Ratio0.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life577.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-571.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity58.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,207
Avg Win$616
# Winners91
Sum Trade PL (losers)$48,290
Sum Trade PL (winners)$56,023
Num Months Winners4
# Losers40
% Winners69.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table197

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)538.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.98
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago5789

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.06
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades43.34
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.15
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.70
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats54.43
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.03
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.08
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.28
df46
t0.56
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.27
Sortino ratio0.49
Upside Potential Ratio1.20
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms4
N of observations47
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error45
t(b)-0.32
p(b)0.63
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.77
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.04
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df46
t0.32
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio0.24
Upside Potential Ratio0.94
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms4
N of observations47
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error45
t(b)-0.23
p(b)0.59
t(a)0.38
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.12
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df1044
t0.61
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.29
Sortino ratio0.43
Upside Potential Ratio2.70
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms986
N negative terms59
N of observations1045
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error1043
t(b)3.06
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)1.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.04
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.10
df1044
t0.21
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Sortino ratio0.14
Upside Potential Ratio2.34
Upside part of mean0.71
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms986
N negative terms59
N of observations1045
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error1043
t(b)2.96
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.05
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.18
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations47
Minimum0.74
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1045
Minimum0.74
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low59
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high72
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.38
Quartile 10.38
Median0.38
Quartile 30.38
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.12
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.42
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-364142848
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)115
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.30
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.87
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 61 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z0short2Nov 3, 2010Nov 4, 2010($1,016)
ES Z0long2Nov 3, 2010Nov 3, 2010$109
ES Z0short1Oct 28, 2010Nov 1, 2010($108)
ES Z0short1Oct 28, 2010Oct 28, 2010$180
ES Z0long2Oct 27, 2010Oct 27, 2010$684
ES Z0long2Oct 27, 2010Oct 27, 2010($366)
ES Z0short1Oct 26, 2010Oct 27, 2010$292
ES Z0long3Oct 26, 2010Oct 26, 2010$612
ES Z0long2Oct 25, 2010Oct 25, 2010($591)
ES Z0long3Oct 19, 2010Oct 20, 2010$764
ES Z0long2Oct 19, 2010Oct 19, 2010($716)
ES Z0short2Oct 18, 2010Oct 18, 2010($191)
ES Z0long2Oct 17, 2010Oct 18, 2010$634
ES Z0long3Oct 14, 2010Oct 15, 2010($562)
ES Z0long2Oct 14, 2010Oct 14, 2010$634
ES Z0short5Oct 14, 2010Oct 14, 2010$523
ES Z0short2Oct 13, 2010Oct 13, 2010($491)
ES Z0long2Oct 12, 2010Oct 12, 2010$334
ES Z0short2Oct 11, 2010Oct 11, 2010$334
ES Z0short3Oct 11, 2010Oct 11, 2010$351
ES Z0long7Oct 7, 2010Oct 8, 2010$1,507
NQ Z0long3Oct 7, 2010Oct 7, 2010$606
NQ Z0long5Oct 6, 2010Oct 6, 2010$10
ES Z0short5Oct 5, 2010Oct 6, 2010$448
ES Z0long7Oct 5, 2010Oct 5, 2010($56)
ES Z0long7Oct 5, 2010Oct 5, 2010$2,219
NQ Z0long3Oct 3, 2010Oct 4, 2010($744)
ES Z0long2Oct 4, 2010Oct 4, 2010$509
ES Z0long1Oct 1, 2010Oct 3, 2010$230
ES Z0short5Sep 30, 2010Sep 30, 2010($1,103)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.