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Break Out and Reverse Ver 1

Futures · Started Jan 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.8%
Max Drawdown
60.2%
Trades
199
Win Trades
45.2%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
3.0%

About this strategy

The Break And Reverse (BAR) trading models use a simple volatility filter and fixed % risk along with a few other filters to first establish what days to trade and how many contracts to possibly trade that day.

The trading size is based on the fixed % of the account size to try and set a max risk per trade. If the risk per trade is small enough or the account size grows large enough multiple contracts can be used.

The initial trade in the morning is a break out trade based on a fraction of the previous days range. After we establish a position we take a SAR approach always keeping us in the market until 1 hour before market close. during the last hour we use just a trailing stop to continue to reduce risk and hopefully protect more profit as the market moves in our favor.

Starting May 23rd we'll be changing the parameters of the trading model to hopefully do auto compounding and reducing our % risk to 4% per trade. We'll do periodic checks to make sure that the account balance stays similar to the C2 balance.

Risking 4% per trade does sound like a lot although with the way that we trade anytime the market moves in our favor to make new profits our stop will also trail behind lowering our risk. We only carry our full risk on trades that trigger our trailing stop and reverse right away. Which can happen from time to time.

As of now, the BAR trailing model has had great fills in C2 with zero if any slippage. This is a great benefit to us and comes to us due to using stops for entries and reversals and only using market orders for our end of day exits.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010-12.60.56.338.823.110.84.5-11.2-2.0-2.8-20.0-14.47.1
2011-17.0-8.3-2.3-2.3-2.4-2.40.00.00.00.00.00.0-30.8
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/3/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age203 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades199
# Profitable90
% Profitable45.2%
Avg trade duration2.8 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown60.2%
drawdown periodAug 03, 2010 - June 29, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.8%
Avg win$501
Avg loss$376

Ratios

W:L ratio1.10
Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Sortino Ratio-0.24
Calmar Ratio0.15

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life577.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-614.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity151.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$376
Avg Win$501
# Winners90
Sum Trade PL (losers)$40,939
Sum Trade PL (winners)$45,066
Num Months Winners6
# Losers109
% Winners45.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table201

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)170.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.84
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago5668

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index2.26

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-128.21
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.10
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats23.51
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.36
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.11
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df55
t0.87
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.31
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio1.68
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms51
N negative terms5
N of observations56
Mean of predictor235.31
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor507.36
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-32.02
r-0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error54
t(b)-1.81
p(b)0.96
t(a)1.12
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-856.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.07
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df55
t0.63
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio1.39
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms51
N negative terms5
N of observations56
Mean of predictor1.91
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor3.23
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.22
r-0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error54
t(b)-2.03
p(b)0.98
t(a)0.98
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.25
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.38
df1230
t0.81
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.78
Upside Potential Ratio3.19
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms1145
N negative terms86
N of observations1231
Mean of predictor242.24
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor524.08
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance-8.25
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.43
DF error1229
t(b)-0.84
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.84
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)-8240.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.07
SD0.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df1230
t0.28
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio0.19
Upside Potential Ratio2.33
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms1145
N negative terms86
N of observations1231
Mean of predictor1.90
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor3.26
SD of criterion0.57
Covariance-0.06
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.33
DF error1229
t(b)-1.20
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.32
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.60
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.21
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations56
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations1231
Minimum0.52
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.13
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low86
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high110
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.17
Median0.22
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.11
Median0.16
Quartile 30.32
Maximum0.52
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.19
Mean of quarter 40.44
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-389154304
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)330
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.09
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 213 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TFS H1short1Feb 22, 2011Feb 22, 2011($228)
TFS H1long1Feb 22, 2011Feb 22, 2011$22
TFS H1short1Feb 22, 2011Feb 22, 2011($168)
TFS H1short1Feb 18, 2011Feb 18, 2011($208)
TFS H1long1Feb 17, 2011Feb 17, 2011$592
TFS H1long2Feb 16, 2011Feb 16, 2011$304
TFS H1long1Feb 16, 2011Feb 16, 2011$22
TFS H1short2Feb 15, 2011Feb 15, 2011$84
TFS H1long2Feb 15, 2011Feb 15, 2011($676)
TFS H1short2Feb 15, 2011Feb 15, 2011($436)
TFS H1long1Feb 10, 2011Feb 10, 2011$472
TFS H1short1Feb 9, 2011Feb 9, 2011($368)
TFS H1long1Feb 9, 2011Feb 9, 2011($558)
TFS H1short1Feb 7, 2011Feb 7, 2011$122
TFS H1long1Feb 7, 2011Feb 7, 2011$532
TFS H1long1Feb 3, 2011Feb 3, 2011($88)
TFS H1short1Feb 3, 2011Feb 3, 2011($428)
TFS H1long1Feb 3, 2011Feb 3, 2011$412
TFS H1short1Feb 3, 2011Feb 3, 2011$182
TFS H1long1Jan 25, 2011Jan 25, 2011$312
TFS H1short1Jan 25, 2011Jan 25, 2011($608)
TFS H1long1Jan 25, 2011Jan 25, 2011($628)
TFS H1long1Jan 24, 2011Jan 24, 2011$222
TFS H1short1Jan 19, 2011Jan 19, 2011$1,622
TFS H1short1Jan 18, 2011Jan 18, 2011($568)
TFS H1short2Jan 13, 2011Jan 13, 2011($136)
TFS H1long2Jan 13, 2011Jan 13, 2011($556)
TFS H1short2Jan 13, 2011Jan 13, 2011($816)
TFS H1long1Jan 12, 2011Jan 12, 2011($98)
TFS H1short1Jan 12, 2011Jan 12, 2011($228)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.