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FxTiming

Forex · Started Oct 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.2%
Max Drawdown
40.2%
Trades
363
Win Trades
62.8%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
3.9%

About this strategy

FxTiming :System`s Goal is to consistently maintain good Sharpe and APD ratios trough the use of propietary algorithms to trade swings that will last from 4 hours to 4 days.All Forex pairs are traded.No specific timing for the signals,usually they will be delivered during the first 2 hours of either the European session or/and American session.Most trades will be opened Monday to Wednesday and closed Wednesday to Friday.Usual Risk and MaxRisk per trade are ,respectively,3% and 5% and Usual Risk/Max Risk per global position,in case of multiple simultaneous open positions,are,respectively 7% and 12%.
The system ALWAYS uses Stops based on either a ratio or a multiplier of D1 volatility of the pairs traded.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20095.020.913.544.1
2010-1.426.3-15.4-0.0-10.510.3-1.63.6-7.13.8-8.89.01.6
2011-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.7
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/26/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age206 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades363
# Profitable228
% Profitable62.8%
Avg trade duration10.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown40.1%
drawdown periodFeb 24, 2010 - Nov 18, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)2.2%
Avg win$2,826
Avg loss$4,198

Ratios

W:L ratio1.14
Sharpe Ratio0.08
Sortino Ratio0.11
Calmar Ratio0.15

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life615.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-562.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity27.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss13.3%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$4,198
Avg Win$2,826
# Winners228
Sum Trade PL (losers)$566,725
Sum Trade PL (winners)$644,380
Num Months Winners8
# Losers135
% Winners62.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table204

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)607.27
Avg Position Time (hrs)10.12
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago5741

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.59

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades9.73
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.66
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.51
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.71
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.68
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df56
t0.64
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio0.63
Upside Potential Ratio1.72
Upside part of mean0.19
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms9
N of observations57
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error55
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.66
t(a)0.75
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.04
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df56
t0.44
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio0.38
Upside Potential Ratio1.46
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms9
N of observations57
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error55
t(b)-0.39
p(b)0.65
t(a)0.56
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.10
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df1249
t0.67
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio0.41
Upside Potential Ratio3.47
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms1135
N negative terms115
N of observations1250
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error1248
t(b)-0.21
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.69
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-15.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.04
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df1249
t0.29
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio0.17
Upside Potential Ratio3.08
Upside part of mean0.80
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms1135
N negative terms115
N of observations1250
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error1248
t(b)-0.15
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.11
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations57
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-64.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations1250
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low115
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high152
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.11
Median0.15
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.05
Median0.10
Quartile 30.26
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.26
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-377543968
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)267
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.38
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.11
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 489 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD long1800Dec 28, 2010Dec 29, 2010$2,016
EUR/USD long1000Dec 28, 2010Dec 29, 2010$200
GBP/USD long1800Dec 28, 2010Dec 28, 2010($180)
GBP/USD short1500Dec 28, 2010Dec 28, 2010($6,135)
EUR/GBP short1750Dec 28, 2010Dec 28, 2010$7,200
EUR/USD long1800Dec 22, 2010Dec 24, 2010$3,798
EUR/USD short1700Dec 22, 2010Dec 22, 2010$3,859
EUR/USD long1500Dec 21, 2010Dec 21, 2010($15,345)
EUR/USD short1500Dec 17, 2010Dec 17, 2010$1,440
GBP/USD long1500Dec 16, 2010Dec 17, 2010$7,155
EUR/GBP long1500Dec 15, 2010Dec 17, 2010$2,986
EUR/GBP short2000Dec 15, 2010Dec 15, 2010$3,473
AUD/USD short2000Dec 15, 2010Dec 15, 2010$4,880
AUD/USD long1500Dec 14, 2010Dec 14, 2010$7,365
EUR/GBP long1500Dec 14, 2010Dec 14, 2010$6,132
EUR/GBP short1000Dec 13, 2010Dec 14, 2010($5,531)
AUD/USD short1500Dec 13, 2010Dec 13, 2010($15,030)
EUR/GBP long2500Dec 10, 2010Dec 10, 2010$818
AUD/USD long2000Dec 10, 2010Dec 10, 2010($3,680)
AUD/USD short2000Dec 9, 2010Dec 10, 2010($1,020)
EUR/USD short1250Dec 9, 2010Dec 9, 2010$5,237
EUR/USD short1000Dec 9, 2010Dec 9, 2010$9,900
AUD/USD long1500Dec 7, 2010Dec 7, 2010($5,490)
AUD/USD short1500Dec 3, 2010Dec 7, 2010($1,980)
AUD/USD short1500Dec 1, 2010Dec 1, 2010$1,860
GBP/AUD long2000Nov 26, 2010Nov 26, 2010$2,063
AUD/USD long1500Nov 26, 2010Nov 26, 2010$5,490
GBP/USD long1700Nov 25, 2010Nov 26, 2010($17,442)
AUD/USD short1500Nov 24, 2010Nov 24, 2010$4,170
AUD/USD long1500Nov 24, 2010Nov 24, 2010$7,305

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.