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Forex Special

Forex · Started Oct 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.9%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
337
Win Trades
90.5%
Profit Factor
3.20
Win Months
17.6%

About this strategy

No averaging down, no highly leveraged trades. All enquiries welcome.

Due to the quick nature of some of the trades, auto trading is recommended.

Before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20092.812.92.118.5
20103.82.01.50.13.31.00.1-0.2-1.30.51.6-2.010.6
20110.62.4-1.71.1-11.3-5.8-5.63.4-3.04.72.90.7-12.3
20125.2-6.03.4-0.8-1.8-7.0-19.90.9-5.45.83.63.6-19.7
2013-80.8496.50.6-35.282.56.05.67.6-44.150.3-51.7-63.8-75.9
2014111.6-128.5-132.5-808.7-46.3-485.8-68.8-148.9543.546.017.30.0635.3
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/1/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age206 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades337
# Profitable305
% Profitable90.5%
Avg trade duration2.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 02, 2014 - April 23, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)2.9%
Avg win$50
Avg loss$147

Ratios

W:L ratio3.21
Sharpe Ratio0.26
Sortino Ratio0.57
Calmar Ratio0.09

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life633.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-586.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$147
Avg Win$50
# Winners305
Sum Trade PL (losers)$4,704
Sum Trade PL (winners)$15,114
Num Months Winners32
# Losers32
% Winners90.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table53

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3151.93
Avg Position Time (hrs)52.53
Avg Trade Length2.20
Last Trade Ago4737

Regression

Alpha0
Beta31.61
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.76
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.26
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.89
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats52.43
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.72
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.05
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.21

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.34
SD1.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.33
df81
t0.87
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Sortino ratio1.11
Upside Potential Ratio2.04
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.97
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms18
N of observations82
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion1.02
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error1.06
DF error80
t(b)0.32
p(b)0.38
t(a)0.69
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.13
Treynor index (mean / b)1.94
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
Mean0.07
SD0.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df81
t0.29
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.86
Sortino ratio0.18
Upside Potential Ratio1.06
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms18
N of observations82
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.65
Covariance0.01
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.43
DF error80
t(b)0.94
p(b)0.18
t(a)-0.03
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.32
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.20
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df1806
t1.05
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio0.58
Upside Potential Ratio4.07
Upside part of mean1.42
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms1464
N negative terms343
N of observations1807
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error1805
t(b)2.73
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.88
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)1.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.07
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.14
df1806
t0.37
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.89
Sortino ratio0.19
Upside Potential Ratio3.50
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-1.28
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms1464
N negative terms343
N of observations1807
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error1805
t(b)3.42
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.18
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.11
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations82
Minimum0.50
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum3.48
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.78
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations1807
Minimum0.68
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.35
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low284
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high325
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.09
Median0.11
Quartile 30.42
Maximum0.79
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.42
Mean of quarter 40.79
Inter Quartile Range0.32
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.84
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.39
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.67
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.84
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.51
Expected Shortfall (regression method)3.35
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-374153056
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)21
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.09
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.24
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 451 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD short100Sep 10, 2013Nov 6, 2014$625
EUR/USD long20Sep 9, 2013Sep 9, 2013$81
EUR/USD long20Sep 4, 2013Sep 4, 2013$62
EUR/USD short40Aug 19, 2013Aug 22, 2013$257
GBP/USD short20Aug 15, 2013Aug 15, 2013$66
GBP/USD long50Aug 5, 2013Aug 7, 2013$352
GBP/USD long20Jul 25, 2013Jul 25, 2013$65
GBP/USD short30Jul 25, 2013Jul 25, 2013$63
EUR/USD short20Jul 24, 2013Jul 24, 2013$40
GBP/USD short20Jul 23, 2013Jul 23, 2013$22
GBP/USD long20Jul 17, 2013Jul 17, 2013$90
GBP/USD long20Jul 16, 2013Jul 16, 2013$89
GBP/USD long70Jul 4, 2013Jul 10, 2013$154
EUR/USD short20Jun 25, 2013Jun 25, 2013$80
EUR/USD short80Jun 6, 2013Jun 20, 2013$346
GBP/USD long20Jun 5, 2013Jun 5, 2013$59
GBP/USD long20Jun 4, 2013Jun 4, 2013$36
GBP/USD short20May 29, 2013May 29, 2013$23
EUR/USD long20May 24, 2013May 24, 2013$44
GBP/USD long20May 23, 2013May 23, 2013$44
GBP/USD long60May 14, 2013May 16, 2013$203
GBP/USD short120Apr 23, 2013May 10, 2013$601
GBP/USD long30Apr 17, 2013Apr 18, 2013$84
GBP/USD short60Apr 8, 2013Apr 15, 2013$269
GBP/USD long20Mar 19, 2013Mar 19, 2013$53
GBP/USD short20Mar 12, 2013Mar 12, 2013$66
GBP/USD short20Mar 5, 2013Mar 5, 2013$49
EUR/USD short20Feb 27, 2013Feb 27, 2013$32
GBP/USD long20Feb 21, 2013Feb 21, 2013$50
EUR/USD short120Jan 10, 2013Feb 20, 2013$646

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.