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Gen 3 - Mini S&P Only

Futures · Started Oct 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.6%
Max Drawdown
21.1%
Trades
165
Win Trades
51.5%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
2.9%

About this strategy

You can visit
www.kjtradingsystems.com
for general info on the 3 time award winning trader behind this system.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2009-2.0-0.92.3-0.6
20102.8-6.10.9-6.28.02.3-4.70.1-9.2-0.00.00.0-12.6
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/1/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age206 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades165
# Profitable85
% Profitable51.5%
Avg trade duration5.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown21.1%
drawdown periodFeb 09, 2010 - May 24, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.6%
Avg win$355
Avg loss$375

Ratios

W:L ratio1.01
Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Sortino Ratio-0.46
Calmar Ratio-0.00

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life641.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-92.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity25.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss20.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$375
Avg Win$355
# Winners85
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,962
Sum Trade PL (winners)$30,155
Num Months Winners7
# Losers80
% Winners51.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table204

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)354.28
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.91
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago5820

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.88

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades33.92
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.40
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats54.67
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.04
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.40
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.00
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df52
t-0.12
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.88
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio1.00
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms48
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error51
t(b)-3.07
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.80
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean-0.01
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.09
df52
t-0.20
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.84
Sortino ratio-0.14
Upside Potential Ratio0.93
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms48
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error51
t(b)-3.03
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.00
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00
df1530
t0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio0.00
Upside Potential Ratio3.46
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms115
N negative terms1416
N of observations1531
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1529
t(b)1.44
p(b)0.48
t(a)-0.06
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean-0.01
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df1530
t-0.13
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.87
Sortino ratio-0.09
Upside Potential Ratio3.35
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms115
N negative terms1416
N of observations1531
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1529
t(b)1.55
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.19
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.21910008017715e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.0797899441698e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations53
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-9.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations1531
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low116
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high115
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.07
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.10
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)104
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.05
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.16
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 192 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z0short1Sep 28, 2010Sep 28, 2010($408)
ES Z0short1Sep 28, 2010Sep 28, 2010($71)
ES Z0short1Sep 27, 2010Sep 27, 2010$167
ES Z0long1Sep 22, 2010Sep 22, 2010($371)
ES Z0short1Sep 21, 2010Sep 21, 2010$55
ES Z0short1Sep 20, 2010Sep 20, 2010($771)
ES Z0short1Sep 17, 2010Sep 17, 2010($71)
ES Z0short1Sep 16, 2010Sep 16, 2010($258)
ES Z0short1Sep 15, 2010Sep 15, 2010($471)
ES Z0long1Sep 14, 2010Sep 14, 2010$180
ES Z0long1Sep 13, 2010Sep 13, 2010$67
ES U0long1Sep 8, 2010Sep 8, 2010$80
ES U0long1Sep 3, 2010Sep 3, 2010$30
ES U0short1Sep 2, 2010Sep 2, 2010($521)
ES U0long2Sep 1, 2010Sep 1, 2010$1,109
ES U0short1Aug 31, 2010Aug 31, 2010($371)
ES U0short1Aug 30, 2010Aug 30, 2010$742
ES U0long1Aug 27, 2010Aug 27, 2010$217
ES U0short1Aug 27, 2010Aug 27, 2010($683)
ES U0short1Aug 26, 2010Aug 26, 2010$567
ES U0long1Aug 25, 2010Aug 25, 2010$367
ES U0long1Aug 23, 2010Aug 23, 2010($683)
ES U0long1Aug 20, 2010Aug 20, 2010$17
ES U0short1Aug 19, 2010Aug 19, 2010$117
ES U0long1Aug 19, 2010Aug 19, 2010($583)
ES U0short1Aug 18, 2010Aug 18, 2010($158)
ES U0short1Aug 17, 2010Aug 17, 2010($296)
ES U0short1Aug 16, 2010Aug 16, 2010($233)
ES U0long1Aug 13, 2010Aug 13, 2010($146)
ES U0short1Aug 11, 2010Aug 11, 2010$492

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.