Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

My Stock Portfolio

Stocks · Started Sep 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
143
Win Trades
60.1%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
7.8%

About this strategy

Commencing October 28, 2011 My Stock Portfolio will no longer solely trade leveraged Latin America Mutual Funds or ETFs in its portfolio. Although financially rewarding, the markets have been too volatile and have created investor angst. Instead My Stock Portfolio will begin an investment philosophy of buying global undervalued stocks and short selling overvalued stocks. This change will create more stock, option and ETF trades as well as shorter holding periods as a direct result. Standard investment disclaimer applies.
From September 22, 2009 until October 28, 2011, we used the following investment strategy: My Stock Portfolio follows the trend of the of the Nasdaq 100 Index also known as the NDX. As such, subscribers with low risk tolerance may follow its trade signals by buying and selling the QQQQs (unleveraged Powershares Trust ETF) in their current brokerage account. Aggressive Investors with high risk tolerance may follow its end-of-the day buy and sell signals using the double leveraged QID/QLD ETF from Proshares. Subscribers using either of these two ETFs must remember to execute and confirm their market-on-the-close (MOC) orders by 3:39:59 p.m. otherwise they will not receive the end-of-the-day settlement price on the day of the trade signal. Also, by doing this, investment returns will differ from the published trade results on Collective 2.
Although "My Stock Portfolio" uses the NDX to initiate buy and sell signals, our research has discovered that the highest returns for our long-term index investment system have been achieved by buying and selling the Ultra Latin America ADR at Profunds (mutual fund stock symbols: UBPIX and UFPIX). That's why we trade them exclusively now. The detailed list of the 35 stocks in this ADR fund can be found by going to www.profunds.com/funds/ultralatin_america.html. Subscribers are reminded that orders placed at Profunds for UBPIX and UFPIX must be executed and confirmed by 3:29:59 p.m. during the trading day to get the end-of-the-day settlement price.
Investors without the $15,000.00 initial investment required to open an account at Profunds may instead trade our signals using the unleveraged I-Shares Latin America 40 share ETF with the stock symbol ILF at their current broker. Investment returns will be lower using this process, but so will the account's drawdowns due to the decreased leverage.
Suggested readings: Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets by Michael Covel and The Complete Turtle Trader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results by Michael Covel.
We have intentionally kept the subscription rate low so investors would be able to subscribe to "My Stock Portfolio" along with another C2 system of their choice - just as Matthew Klein preaches ad infinitum on this website (see Portfolio Builder details). And, yes, we trade this end-of-the-day trend following system with our own money at Profunds using the closed trade stock symbols. This is the recommended process. Only speculative funds should be commited to this investment system. Standard disclaimer applies.
Most investors don't plan to fail, rather they fail to plan. Each investor should evaluate their risk tolerance and incorporate their findings in the core of their investment plan. The investment plan of "My Stock Portfolio" is to provide positive investment returns (i.e., build wealth) regardless of market conditions with reduced risk due to limited market exposure.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20093.0-2.34.83.28.9
2010-4.20.23.3-0.438.82.47.24.6-13.0-12.31.9-14.74.5
20114.4-5.9-4.2-6.96.810.2-4.70.573.1-102.7-796.081.3-42.7
2012-213.3-84.0-10.3-8.4-41.5-27.3-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.90.0-176.2
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.30.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.90.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/22/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age207 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades143
# Profitable86
% Profitable60.1%
Avg trade duration14.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJune 07, 2012 - June 08, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$523
Avg loss$1,073

Ratios

W:L ratio0.72
Sharpe Ratio0.08
Sortino Ratio0.12
Calmar Ratio-0.82

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life604.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-754.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Percent Trades Stocks0.9%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,073
Avg Win$523
# Winners86
Sum Trade PL (losers)$61,179
Sum Trade PL (winners)$44,974
Num Months Winners15
# Losers57
% Winners60.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-657

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table26

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)20634.67
Avg Position Time (hrs)343.91
Avg Trade Length14.30
Last Trade Ago5210

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.46
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.54
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.42
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.45
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats15.22
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.58
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.30
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.81
SD2.86
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.28
df66
t0.67
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio1.24
Upside Potential Ratio2.12
Upside part of mean1.39
Downside part of mean-0.58
Upside SD2.77
Downside SD0.66
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms10
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.81
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion2.86
Covariance-0.06
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.93
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.12
Mean Square Error8.23
DF error65
t(b)-0.66
p(b)0.74
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.71
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.88
Jensen alpha (a)1.12
Mean-1.76
SD3.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.45
df66
t-1.08
p0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Sortino ratio-0.47
Upside Potential Ratio0.15
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-2.33
Upside SD0.87
Downside SD3.78
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms10
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion-1.76
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion3.87
Covariance-0.07
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.41
Mean Square Error15.14
DF error65
t(b)-0.61
p(b)0.73
t(a)-0.81
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.07
Treynor index (mean / b)1.48
Jensen alpha (a)-1.41
VaR(95%)0.86
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.91
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean800.57
SD1408.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df1482
t1.35
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.39
Sortino ratio717.14
Upside Potential Ratio719.61
Upside part of mean803.33
Downside part of mean-2.76
Upside SD1408.98
Downside SD1.12
N nonnegative terms1218
N negative terms265
N of observations1483
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion800.57
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1408.58
Covariance13.32
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)148.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)747.30
Mean Square Error1983467.38
DF error1481
t(b)1.22
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-91.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta388.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-417.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1911.64
Treynor index (mean / b)5.38
Jensen alpha (a)747.30
Mean-1.74
SD7.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.24
df1482
t-0.57
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.58
Sortino ratio-0.31
Upside Potential Ratio0.91
Upside part of mean5.05
Downside part of mean-6.79
Upside SD4.71
Downside SD5.53
N nonnegative terms1218
N negative terms265
N of observations1483
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion-1.74
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion7.26
Covariance-0.02
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.67
Mean Square Error52.80
DF error1481
t(b)-0.35
p(b)0.51
t(a)-0.55
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.33
Treynor index (mean / b)8.03
Jensen alpha (a)-1.67
VaR(95%)0.53
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.60
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations67
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum7.52
Mean of quarter 10.81
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.46
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.68
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.46
Number of observations1483
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2970.12
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 413.26
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low265
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high251
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high19.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.26
Median0.32
Quartile 30.66
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.19
Mean of quarter 20.32
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.40
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.06
Quartile 30.26
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.50
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.59
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.97
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.60
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-369181312
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.83
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.91
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.82
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.37
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SSO long2000Jun 8, 2012Jun 11, 2012($215)
XPP long1900May 29, 2012Jun 11, 2012($1,732)
ACI long200May 18, 2012Jun 11, 2012($1,821)
AEZS long333May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012($95)
MUX long1000May 21, 2012Jun 8, 2012$158
NEM long200May 18, 2012Jun 8, 2012$762
HUN long400May 18, 2012Jun 8, 2012($175)
CHGI long2000May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012($25)
TAS long2600May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012($266)
SLW long200May 18, 2012Jun 8, 2012$472
NOK long500May 25, 2012Jun 8, 2012$130
NGD long400May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012$500
LSG long7000May 15, 2012Jun 8, 2012$909
CAAS long500May 23, 2012Jun 8, 2012$140
AG long300May 18, 2012Jun 8, 2012$594
WLDVF long2200May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012$70
KERX long1700May 18, 2012Jun 8, 2012($99)
UEC long3600May 16, 2012Jun 8, 2012($427)
AUNFF long1000May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012$112
AXU long200May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012($10)
MVG long400May 18, 2012Jun 8, 2012$588
HL long1000May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012$205
HDY long125Jun 5, 2012Jun 8, 2012$8
SWC long500May 24, 2012Jun 8, 2012$410
GLD long50May 22, 2012Jun 8, 2012$47
MUX long500May 18, 2012May 21, 2012($140)
CAAS long400May 18, 2012May 21, 2012($16)
AXU long200May 18, 2012May 21, 2012$26
TAS long700May 18, 2012May 21, 2012$37
SNSS long500May 18, 2012May 21, 2012($55)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.