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GermanFX

Forex · Started Sep 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
170
Win Trades
73.5%
Profit Factor
0.70
Win Months
11.8%

About this strategy

The strategy is a long term trading approach. Usually the system will trade one (mini-) lot per currency pair.

Usually order type is market order (sometimes pending). Since the system is focused on long term success trades will usually last from 1 day to several weeks. Because of the nature of the system there could be trades open during the weekend. There is no focus on news trading.

BTW: I don�t comment on reviews, I just trade. Please feel free to pm me.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20093.08.7-4.59.216.8
20101.88.1-12.0-0.83.81.83.2-5.38.82.7-12.3-19.6-21.8
201116.3-0.2-7.42.6-1.5-4.8-2.1-41.7-3.527.7-7.7-29.8-53.0
2012-22.437.030.8-11.8-20.436.8-17.0-5.7-7.59.98.19.225.5
2013-3.1-41.714.09.0-105.1-733.3-63.6-37.7-171.8-8.4-63.5-103.3-100.2
2014-5523.1-171.8159.250.1-19.691.7-36.3-11.8-183.3-15.2-109.4-65.5
2015-31.6-12.0-29.3-23.6-14.9-15.0-27.5-21.1-1.8-8.7-3.4-3.3
2016-15.3-5.8-23.6-1.4-14.9-13.9-0.7-4.3-3.0-16.1-0.9-9.5
2017-11.3-2.7-0.9-2.5-2.3-6.4-9.9-0.2-5.3-11.5-3.0-9.5
2018-15.0-12.3-1.8-10.4-7.1-10.5-2.3-10.3-2.3-7.4-3.6-6.8
2019-11.6-2.8-1.8-4.9-3.10.0-12.6-1.6-3.2-3.2-8.6
2020-9.4-7.8-15.9-8.7-11.3-2.7-12.4-13.3-17.0-3.0-12.9-10.3
2021-2.3-6.8-5.9-8.4-3.6-16.0-5.3-3.5-6.7-12.1-23.1-6.3
2022-4.9-5.7-2.4-20.6-2.8-12.7-0.3-12.3-11.6-3.6-14.1-3.5
2023-12.0-14.8-2.9-1.1-1.5-3.9-2.1-8.8-6.9-2.0-7.9-6.8
2024-5.5-3.2-1.1-0.6-5.9-1.5-0.5-6.6-7.3-13.4-6.1-3.4
2025-9.4-9.2-2.2-5.3-6.3-4.0-6.5-1.20.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/2/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age207 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades170
# Profitable125
% Profitable73.5%
Avg trade duration66.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJan 13, 2014 - March 20, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$100
Avg loss$423

Ratios

W:L ratio0.66
Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Sortino Ratio-0.63
Calmar Ratio-0.71

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life659.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-922.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated5.7%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$423
Avg Win$100
# Winners125
Sum Trade PL (losers)$19,039
Sum Trade PL (winners)$12,559
Num Months Winners21
# Losers45
% Winners73.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table45

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)96322.65
Avg Position Time (hrs)1605.38
Avg Trade Length66.90
Last Trade Ago391

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.26
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.24
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.24
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.34
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.56
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats67.33
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.17
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.62
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.31

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean403.49
SD747.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df82
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio426.83
Upside Potential Ratio428.26
Upside part of mean404.84
Downside part of mean-1.34
Upside SD752.37
Downside SD0.95
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms36
N of observations83
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion403.49
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion747.81
Covariance47.17
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)891.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)126.51
Mean Square Error523582.19
DF error81
t(b)2.57
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.43
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta200.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1582.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-461.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha714.58
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)126.51
Mean-1.24
SD5.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df82
t-0.61
p0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Sortino ratio-0.34
Upside Potential Ratio0.69
Upside part of mean2.50
Downside part of mean-3.74
Upside SD3.91
Downside SD3.64
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms36
N of observations83
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion-1.24
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion5.36
Covariance0.46
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)9.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.91
Mean Square Error24.67
DF error81
t(b)3.79
p(b)0.00
t(a)-1.94
p(a)0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta14.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-3.91
VaR(95%)0.93
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.96
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.50
Mean180.70
SD184.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df1818
t2.58
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio101.12
Upside Potential Ratio104.93
Upside part of mean187.50
Downside part of mean-6.81
Upside SD184.51
Downside SD1.79
N nonnegative terms1093
N negative terms726
N of observations1819
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion180.70
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion184.23
Covariance3.48
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)45.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)166.02
Mean Square Error33802.38
DF error1817
t(b)2.91
p(b)0.46
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta14.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta75.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha28.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha303.23
Treynor index (mean / b)3.98
Jensen alpha (a)166.02
Mean-1.23
SD8.92
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.14
df1818
t-0.36
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.61
Sortino ratio-0.19
Upside Potential Ratio2.02
Upside part of mean13.42
Downside part of mean-14.66
Upside SD5.96
Downside SD6.64
N nonnegative terms1093
N negative terms726
N of observations1819
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion-1.23
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion8.92
Covariance0.29
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)3.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.29
Mean Square Error78.58
DF error1817
t(b)5.01
p(b)0.43
t(a)-0.68
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-8.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.33
Jensen alpha (a)-2.29
VaR(95%)0.60
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.67
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.92
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations83
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.92
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1442
Mean of quarter 10.58
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 4134.32
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.28
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high560.67
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.38
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.38
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.44
Number of observations1819
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum355
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 43.86
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low178
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high179
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high8.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.07
Quartile 30.27
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.27
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations33
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.52
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)5.88
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-422439744
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2258
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.71
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.71
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.71
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.74
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.71
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.71
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.93
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.05
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 237 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/USD long20Jan 25, 2013Aug 21, 2025($7,907)
GBP/USD long10Jan 3, 2013Aug 21, 2025($2,667)
EUR/CAD short10May 5, 2013May 13, 2013$80
USD/CAD long10Jan 4, 2013Jan 23, 2013$87
AUD/USD long10Jan 3, 2013Jan 10, 2013$112
USD/CAD long10Jan 2, 2013Jan 3, 2013$14
AUD/USD long10Dec 26, 2012Jan 2, 2013$119
USD/JPY long10Mar 26, 2012Dec 14, 2012$0
AUD/USD long20Aug 15, 2012Dec 11, 2012$166
EUR/USD long10Jul 9, 2012Aug 6, 2012$53
CAD/JPY long10May 17, 2012Aug 6, 2012$0
EUR/USD long10May 28, 2012Jun 18, 2012$170
USD/CAD long10Apr 10, 2012May 17, 2012$94
EUR/JPY long10Apr 18, 2012Apr 20, 2012$1
CAD/JPY short10Apr 8, 2012Apr 10, 2012$1
EUR/JPY short10Apr 4, 2012Apr 5, 2012$0
EUR/CHF long10Aug 29, 2011Mar 30, 2012$249
EUR/AUD long10Nov 30, 2011Mar 30, 2012($182)
EUR/USD long10Mar 22, 2012Mar 23, 2012$43
USD/JPY long10Mar 12, 2012Mar 15, 2012$1
CAD/JPY long10Jul 25, 2011Mar 9, 2012$0
USD/JPY long10Nov 21, 2011Nov 23, 2011$0
EUR/USD long10Nov 17, 2011Nov 18, 2011$100
USD/CAD short10Oct 10, 2011Oct 12, 2011$83
EUR/CHF short10Aug 12, 2011Aug 29, 2011($1,354)
USD/JPY long10Jul 18, 2011Aug 4, 2011$0
EUR/CHF long10Jul 21, 2011Jul 22, 2011$116
USD/CAD long10Jul 6, 2011Jul 12, 2011$41
USD/JPY long10Jun 24, 2011Jul 7, 2011$1
EUR/CHF long10May 27, 2011Jul 4, 2011$131

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.