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ONYX

Futures · Started Jan 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.9%
Max Drawdown
27.8%
Trades
3312
Win Trades
40.4%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
20.8%

About this strategy

ONYX is a portfolio of trading systems 100% automatic. Its investment objective is to profit from intraday upward and downward trends. Currently, the portfolio is composed of American Indexes, Bonds and European Indexes. Different strategies are applied in order to increase the probability of making a profit and to decrease the volatility of the portfolio.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2009-0.512.1-5.58.111.9-0.61.91.00.96.8-3.95.041.8
2010-1.6-1.1-3.23.44.55.30.8-2.90.11.94.8-0.511.8
2011-4.8-2.62.9-3.17.74.9-0.517.60.20.10.2-0.022.7
2012-0.6-4.00.55.3-4.7-0.9-3.0-0.35.7-6.02.2-2.4-8.7
2013-4.75.1-0.88.7-2.45.0-3.5-1.1-9.71.50.6-3.5-6.2
2014-1.2-4.03.74.31.7-4.12.2-1.1-2.1-0.0-0.7-1.2-2.8
2015-3.7-0.5-1.70.60.10.7-0.91.00.3-1.6-1.51.6-5.3
20160.0-0.12.1-0.3-0.6-0.4-0.50.70.5-1.50.00.0-0.1
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/18/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age215 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades3312
# Profitable1337
% Profitable40.4%
Avg trade duration3.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.8%
drawdown periodNov 15, 2011 - April 13, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)6.9%
Avg win$647
Avg loss$374

Ratios

W:L ratio1.17
Sharpe Ratio0.08
Sortino Ratio0.13
Calmar Ratio0.71

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life788.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-90.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity35.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)692
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$374
Avg Win$647
# Winners1337
Sum Trade PL (losers)$738,586
Sum Trade PL (winners)$864,452
Num Months Winners46
# Losers1975
% Winners40.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table213

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)215.68
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.60
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago4427

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.02
Treynor Index-0.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades19.53
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.68
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.38
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df72
t2.64
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.87
Sortino ratio2.77
Upside Potential Ratio4.72
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms32
N of observations73
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error71
t(b)-2.19
p(b)0.98
t(a)3.20
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.13
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df72
t2.56
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio2.56
Upside Potential Ratio4.51
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms32
N of observations73
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error71
t(b)-2.31
p(b)0.99
t(a)3.14
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.13
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.28
df2114
t3.16
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio2.11
Upside Potential Ratio9.46
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms774
N negative terms1341
N of observations2115
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error2113
t(b)-2.25
p(b)0.99
t(a)3.26
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.79
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.12
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.23
df2114
t3.05
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio2.02
Upside Potential Ratio9.33
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms774
N negative terms1341
N of observations2115
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error2113
t(b)-2.36
p(b)0.99
t(a)3.14
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.13
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.29
df171
t-1.63
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.49
Sortino ratio-3.18
Upside Potential Ratio7.19
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms105
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)-1.61
p(b)0.56
t(a)-1.58
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
Mean-0.13
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.32
df171
t-1.65
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.46
Sortino ratio-3.21
Upside Potential Ratio7.16
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.41
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms105
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error170
t(b)-1.59
p(b)0.56
t(a)-1.60
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations73
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations2115
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low195
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high257
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations50
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1245
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.43
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.32
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.27
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-17.25

Trading record

Placed 6060 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XG U4short1Jul 25, 2014Jul 25, 2014$2,338
BD U4long2Jul 25, 2014Jul 25, 2014$442
MT Q4short1Jul 25, 2014Jul 25, 2014$478
MT Q4short1Jul 25, 2014Jul 25, 2014($221)
EMD U4long1Jul 24, 2014Jul 24, 2014($388)
TFS U4short1Jul 24, 2014Jul 24, 2014($108)
MT Q4long1Jul 24, 2014Jul 24, 2014$90
EMD U4short1Jul 24, 2014Jul 24, 2014($528)
EMD U4long1Jul 24, 2014Jul 24, 2014($298)
EMD U4long1Jul 22, 2014Jul 22, 2014($278)
TFS U4long1Jul 22, 2014Jul 22, 2014$102
MT Q4long1Jul 22, 2014Jul 22, 2014$341
MT Q4short1Jul 21, 2014Jul 21, 2014($139)
EMD U4short1Jul 17, 2014Jul 17, 2014$852
EMD U4long1Jul 17, 2014Jul 17, 2014($438)
EMD U4short1Jul 16, 2014Jul 16, 2014$542
EMD U4short1Jul 15, 2014Jul 15, 2014$152
TFS U4short1Jul 15, 2014Jul 15, 2014$812
EMD U4short1Jul 14, 2014Jul 14, 2014($58)
TFS U4short1Jul 14, 2014Jul 14, 2014($78)
MT N4long1Jul 14, 2014Jul 14, 2014$74
BD U4long2Jul 14, 2014Jul 14, 2014($191)
MT N4short1Jul 11, 2014Jul 11, 2014($166)
EMD U4long1Jul 10, 2014Jul 10, 2014($718)
EMD U4short1Jul 9, 2014Jul 9, 2014($298)
BD U4long2Jul 8, 2014Jul 8, 2014$792
TFS U4short1Jul 7, 2014Jul 7, 2014$1,312
BD U4long2Jul 7, 2014Jul 7, 2014$159
MT N4short1Jul 4, 2014Jul 4, 2014$63
MT N4long1Jul 3, 2014Jul 3, 2014$308

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.