Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

FX Speculator

Forex · Started Nov 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
49
Win Trades
42.9%
Profit Factor
0.20
Win Months
18.1%

About this strategy

Currently testing our gray box -- C2 interface. We're also evaluating C2 execution and up time to properly tune trading parameters. (Will Resume Trading in January)

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2008-0.27.06.8
2009-30.1-60.7229.93.6116.4-7.214.44.716.43.613.6-27.5124.4
2010-24.9-24.50.7-22.5-124.6-33.0-241.2-79.1894.637.4-67.856.3-70.7
201165.62.725.053.1-26.01.14.45.1-54.384.3-54.8-48.0-47.1
201276.68.010.1-14.2-129.3-155.8-347.2-80.8-670.223.86.966.976.5
201349.6-36.4-31.79.2-8.030.115.72.145.2-3.211.46.867.8
2014-15.923.84.28.3-17.53.7-24.3-33.1-74.5-129.9-162.4-262.2-136.9
2015-202.5-11.3-32.6-24.6-2.8-8.3-3.8-15.0-5.3-7.0-31.1-19.4
2016-8.2-5.5-22.8-18.9-37.9-0.8-1.7-1.3-4.0-10.7-33.4-6.9
2017-10.7-4.0-2.1-12.7-20.4-13.6-36.0-17.9-24.7-22.2-23.7-6.8
2018-76.9-62.8-1.4-127.2-60.1-4.2-12.5-11.1-10.6-23.6-0.1-5.5
2019-1.2-6.1-10.4-1.2-2.4-16.2-9.3-20.7-7.0-14.4-10.0-9.7
2020-10.4-7.9-13.4-20.1-14.9-7.9-42.1-14.4-37.4-0.1-20.7-56.1
2021-34.5-14.7-56.4-39.0-21.1-69.5-10.7-9.7-13.5-15.8-28.3-2.8
2022-13.2-2.1-4.5-27.6-1.0-9.7-20.3-5.2-8.8-5.9-16.2-12.0
2023-11.5-18.9-14.8-10.1-19.0-10.2-6.3-13.2-13.7-0.3-18.1-5.0
2024-13.3-2.0-3.7-4.2-7.6-6.5-6.6-12.4-6.5-25.1-13.6-9.9
2025-1.0-0.8-20.0-33.0-2.6-29.8-5.1-17.20.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/17/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age217 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades49
# Profitable21
% Profitable42.9%
Avg trade duration123.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJuly 03, 2012 - July 25, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$183
Avg loss$798

Ratios

W:L ratio0.17
Sharpe Ratio0.18
Sortino Ratio0.47
Calmar Ratio-0.83

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.19
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life797.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-989.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated1.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$798
Avg Win$183
# Winners21
Sum Trade PL (losers)$22,344
Sum Trade PL (winners)$3,853
Num Months Winners11
# Losers28
% Winners42.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table19

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)178034.19
Avg Position Time (hrs)2967.24
Avg Trade Length123.60
Last Trade Ago389

Regression

Alpha0
Beta1.75
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-0.40
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.72
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats19.39
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats12.04
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.27
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-2.52

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean2156.43
SD3444.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df61
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio2022.46
Upside Potential Ratio2024.09
Upside part of mean2158.17
Downside part of mean-1.74
Upside SD3472.45
Downside SD1.07
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms23
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion2156.43
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion3444.08
Covariance69.30
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)698.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1844.04
Mean Square Error12010203
DF error60
t(b)0.50
p(b)0.31
t(a)1.12
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2119.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3516.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1455.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5143.93
Treynor index (mean / b)3.09
Jensen alpha (a)1844.04
Mean-1.78
SD8.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.21
df61
t-0.49
p0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.65
Sortino ratio-0.29
Upside Potential Ratio0.73
Upside part of mean4.49
Downside part of mean-6.27
Upside SD5.48
Downside SD6.14
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms23
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-1.78
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion8.28
Covariance0.49
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)5.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.06
Mean Square Error66.88
DF error60
t(b)1.61
p(b)0.06
t(a)-1.05
p(a)0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta12.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-11.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.31
Jensen alpha (a)-4.06
VaR(95%)0.98
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.99
VaR(95%)0.27
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.57
Mean6472.29
SD8726.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df1367
t1.69
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.60
Sortino ratio3073.69
Upside Potential Ratio3078.56
Upside part of mean6482.55
Downside part of mean-10.26
Upside SD8732.41
Downside SD2.11
N nonnegative terms976
N negative terms392
N of observations1368
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion6472.29
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion8726.44
Covariance-24.05
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-155.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)6549.73
Mean Square Error76202744
DF error1366
t(b)-0.26
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.71
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1334.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1022.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-967.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha14066.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-41.58
Jensen alpha (a)6549.73
Mean-1.76
SD14.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df1367
t-0.28
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-0.17
Upside Potential Ratio2.15
Upside part of mean22.55
Downside part of mean-24.32
Upside SD9.76
Downside SD10.49
N nonnegative terms976
N negative terms392
N of observations1368
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion-1.76
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion14.33
Covariance0.66
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.56
Mean Square Error202.73
DF error1366
t(b)4.37
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-15.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.41
Jensen alpha (a)-3.56
VaR(95%)0.77
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.83
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.21
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations62
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.84
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum5935
Mean of quarter 10.48
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 4697.91
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.27
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1239.90
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.44
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.55
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.54
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.55
Number of observations1368
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum17515.14
Mean of quarter 10.84
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 499.97
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low239
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high255
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high133.73
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.60
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.20
Median0.34
Quartile 30.67
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.34
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.47
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.08
Median0.13
Quartile 30.22
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 40.55
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.75
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.54
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.63
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.70
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.81
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-386946560
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)22
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.83
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.84
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD long250Jan 19, 2009Aug 21, 2025($19,439)
EUR/USD long100Jan 19, 2009Jan 19, 2009($23)
EUR/USD short250Jan 19, 2009Jan 19, 2009$195
EUR/USD long100Jan 19, 2009Jan 19, 2009($93)
EUR/USD short250Jan 16, 2009Jan 16, 2009($395)
EUR/USD short100Jan 16, 2009Jan 16, 2009($92)
EUR/USD long250Dec 9, 2008Dec 9, 2008($157)
EUR/USD long250Dec 9, 2008Dec 9, 2008($10)
EUR/USD long250Dec 9, 2008Dec 9, 2008$195
EUR/USD short250Dec 9, 2008Dec 9, 2008$215
EUR/USD short250Dec 9, 2008Dec 9, 2008$330
EUR/USD long250Dec 9, 2008Dec 9, 2008($138)
EUR/USD short250Dec 8, 2008Dec 8, 2008$213
EUR/USD short250Dec 8, 2008Dec 8, 2008($117)
EUR/USD short250Dec 8, 2008Dec 8, 2008($152)
EUR/USD long250Dec 8, 2008Dec 8, 2008$125
EUR/USD short250Dec 8, 2008Dec 8, 2008$180
EUR/USD short150Dec 8, 2008Dec 8, 2008($223)
EUR/USD long100Dec 8, 2008Dec 8, 2008$17
EUR/USD short100Dec 8, 2008Dec 8, 2008($80)
EUR/USD short100Dec 5, 2008Dec 5, 2008$149
EUR/USD short100Dec 4, 2008Dec 4, 2008$380
EUR/USD short100Dec 3, 2008Dec 3, 2008$322
EUR/USD short30Dec 3, 2008Dec 3, 2008($61)
EUR/USD long100Dec 2, 2008Dec 2, 2008($101)
EUR/USD short100Nov 21, 2008Nov 21, 2008($119)
EUR/USD long100Nov 20, 2008Nov 20, 2008($86)
EUR/USD long250Nov 20, 2008Nov 20, 2008$580
EUR/USD short100Nov 20, 2008Nov 20, 2008($135)
EUR/USD short100Nov 20, 2008Nov 20, 2008($111)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.