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Gen 2 - Mini S&P Only

Futures · Started Nov 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.9%
Max Drawdown
42.6%
Trades
512
Win Trades
50.8%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
5.1%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2008-23.239.37.0
20096.318.69.014.80.9-11.14.6-2.8-3.5-6.3-1.40.729.2
20108.5-8.56.2-11.8-12.85.4-0.1-10.3-16.4-8.50.00.0-41.5
2011-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.1
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/4/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age218 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades512
# Profitable260
% Profitable50.8%
Avg trade duration18.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.6%
drawdown periodNov 07, 2008 - Nov 24, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.9%
Avg win$481
Avg loss$480

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Sortino Ratio-0.23
Calmar Ratio0.06

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life659.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-106.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity116.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss13.3%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$480
Avg Win$481
# Winners260
Sum Trade PL (losers)$121,060
Sum Trade PL (winners)$125,181
Num Months Winners11
# Losers252
% Winners50.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table215

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1136.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)18.94
Avg Trade Length0.80
Last Trade Ago5804

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.69

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades128.41
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.47
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats42.84
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.03
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.42
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.05
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.21
df65
t0.49
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.04
Sortino ratio0.41
Upside Potential Ratio1.61
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms53
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error64
t(b)0.61
p(b)0.27
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.02
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.12
df65
t0.28
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio0.20
Upside Potential Ratio1.39
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms53
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error64
t(b)0.72
p(b)0.24
t(a)0.15
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.04
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df1914
t0.51
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.05
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio5.14
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms296
N negative terms1619
N of observations1915
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1913
t(b)-1.96
p(b)0.53
t(a)0.58
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.02
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.12
df1914
t0.28
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio0.17
Upside Potential Ratio4.94
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms296
N negative terms1619
N of observations1915
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1913
t(b)-1.97
p(b)0.53
t(a)0.34
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.21345992912404e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.01188996651836e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations66
Minimum0.83
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-10.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1915
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low289
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high297
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.17
Quartile 10.20
Median0.24
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.17
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.29
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.74
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.37
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)17
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.31
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.59
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 360 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z0short1Oct 26, 2010Oct 27, 2010$30
ES Z0long1Oct 25, 2010Oct 26, 2010($546)
ES Z0short1Oct 22, 2010Oct 22, 2010($83)
ES Z0short1Oct 21, 2010Oct 22, 2010($8)
ES Z0long1Oct 20, 2010Oct 21, 2010$467
ES Z0long1Oct 19, 2010Oct 19, 2010($546)
ES Z0short1Oct 18, 2010Oct 19, 2010$92
ES Z0short1Oct 15, 2010Oct 15, 2010($58)
ES Z0short1Oct 14, 2010Oct 15, 2010($333)
ES Z0short1Oct 13, 2010Oct 14, 2010($196)
ES Z0short1Oct 12, 2010Oct 12, 2010($521)
ES Z0short1Oct 11, 2010Oct 12, 2010$180
ES Z0short1Oct 8, 2010Oct 8, 2010($246)
ES Z0short1Oct 7, 2010Oct 8, 2010($8)
ES Z0long1Oct 6, 2010Oct 7, 2010$255
ES Z0long1Oct 5, 2010Oct 6, 2010$555
ES Z0long1Oct 4, 2010Oct 4, 2010($596)
ES Z0short1Oct 1, 2010Oct 1, 2010$67
ES Z0long1Sep 30, 2010Oct 1, 2010($208)
ES Z0long1Sep 29, 2010Sep 30, 2010$180
ES Z0short1Sep 28, 2010Sep 29, 2010($346)
ES Z0short1Sep 27, 2010Sep 28, 2010($8)
ES Z0long1Sep 24, 2010Sep 24, 2010$330
ES Z0short1Sep 23, 2010Sep 24, 2010($596)
ES Z0long1Sep 22, 2010Sep 23, 2010($908)
ES Z0short1Sep 21, 2010Sep 22, 2010$205
ES Z0short1Sep 20, 2010Sep 21, 2010($783)
ES Z0short1Sep 17, 2010Sep 17, 2010($83)
ES Z0short1Sep 16, 2010Sep 17, 2010($546)
ES Z0short1Sep 15, 2010Sep 16, 2010($183)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.