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Integrity-Profiteer

Forex · Started Oct 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.7%
Max Drawdown
68.3%
Trades
300
Win Trades
75.0%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
2.8%

About this strategy





NOTE: Recent loss on USD/CAD and EUR/USD were due to FXCM feed freezing. These orders would have had better averaged price and would have closed with 50+ pips of profit. However, due to the feed issue with Collective2, my trades never reached target profit (but my real account did), and since I was going on vacation, I closed these 2 trades. I am still up 25% for the month, instead of the 50%.

Market sentiment is the driving force of the currency market. Sentiment is the reflection of fundamental news. My focus is on the sentiment and I try to capture a major move before it takes place. My trading method is not based on technical or news trading... it is based on sentiment trading exclusively.

Most of my trades will be entered between 2:00am ~ 3:45am NY Time, and some will be entered between 6:00am ~ 7:45am NY Time. There is also a possibility for one order per day during the Tokyo session, between 7:00pm ~ 8:45pm.

My goal is 30 to 150 pips per trade, my stops are usually limited to 60~80 pips (although I may let some positions take larger stops based on lower leveraged entry and market direction), I focus on a 30 pips zonal stop (from 50 to 80 pips), since I do not believe that a particular bid/ask price is sufficient as stop.

My recommended leverage for trading is 2X your current available Equity. If you have a $10,000 account, then you only trade 2 mini lots per trade... I may have up to 4 positions, therefore up to 8 mini lots... Do not overtrade my system or you may be taking on a higher than necessary risk.

I recommend that you autotrade my system, although I do trade the London session, sometimes I follow high-impact news events during Late U.S. Session or Early Asian sessions... therefore it is best if you setup auto-trading based on my system.

UPDATE: Some traders question a huge drawdown on my record referring to the AUD/JPY trade, at the time of the trade, we had a major capitulation move and Collective2 website was down. I couldn't close the trade although I have issued a closeall signal. Then after one hour collective2 came back and market started to rebound, and I started to add on to more positions therefore came out with a profit. This trade would have a controlled risk.

Secondly, some traders wonder why I add to a losing position. The answer is I average my entries at better price. If you look at my original entries, I enter with such a small lot that practically I am just trading 2 lots on a 250K account! Therefore I can afford the cost average. Remember my trade is based on fundamentals. I am anticipating market movement therefore I am confident with market direction, that is why you can see over 85% successful trades. I usually dont hold my trades for days waiting for it to turn positive, as you can see the average time per trades.

Thank you, and if you want to learn about my trading methods, I do publish an E-book at my website http://www.newsprofiteer.com


NewsProfiteer









Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2008132.824.13.7199.6
2009-60.535.7-1.30.00.00.01.00.01.1-0.00.00.0-46.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/5/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age218 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades300
# Profitable225
% Profitable75.0%
Avg trade duration8.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown68.3%
drawdown periodNov 25, 2008 - Jan 30, 2009
Annual Return (Compounded)2.7%
Avg win$2,376
Avg loss$6,083

Ratios

W:L ratio1.17
Sharpe Ratio0.11
Sortino Ratio0.17
Calmar Ratio-0.14

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life594.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-529.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity130.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$6,083
Avg Win$2,376
# Winners225
Sum Trade PL (losers)$456,242
Sum Trade PL (winners)$534,583
Num Months Winners9
# Losers75
% Winners75.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table216

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)518.55
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.64
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago6403

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.06
Treynor Index-0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades37.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.85
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.66
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.98
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.46
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df61
t0.07
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.89
Sortino ratio0.06
Upside Potential Ratio0.73
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms6
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error60
t(b)-0.18
p(b)0.57
t(a)0.12
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean-0.10
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df61
t-0.47
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.66
Sortino ratio-0.27
Upside Potential Ratio0.39
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms56
N negative terms6
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error60
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.39
t(a)-0.53
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.65
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.21
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.41
SD1.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df1374
t0.90
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio0.71
Upside Potential Ratio2.77
Upside part of mean1.61
Downside part of mean-1.19
Upside SD0.87
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms1291
N negative terms84
N of observations1375
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion1.05
Covariance-0.10
r-0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.66
Mean Square Error1.05
DF error1373
t(b)-8.05
p(b)0.63
t(a)1.47
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.66
Mean-0.09
SD1.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.09
df1374
t-0.21
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio-0.12
Upside Potential Ratio1.73
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-1.44
Upside SD0.66
Downside SD0.78
N nonnegative terms1291
N negative terms84
N of observations1375
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion1.02
Covariance-0.11
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.99
DF error1373
t(b)-8.72
p(b)0.64
t(a)0.26
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.97
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.01
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations62
Minimum0.56
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.00
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.91
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations1375
Minimum0.35
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.22
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low84
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high90
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.42
Quartile 10.44
Median0.45
Quartile 30.47
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.42
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.48
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.21
Median0.46
Quartile 30.58
Maximum0.65
Mean of quarter 10.16
Mean of quarter 20.35
Mean of quarter 30.56
Mean of quarter 40.63
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-407527232
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)66
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.19
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.37
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 481 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/JPY short450Mar 4, 2009Mar 4, 2009($14)
USD/CAD long300Mar 4, 2009Mar 4, 2009$551
AUD/USD long300Feb 27, 2009Feb 27, 2009$498
GBP/USD long300Feb 27, 2009Feb 27, 2009$504
GBP/JPY long300Feb 26, 2009Feb 27, 2009$6
GBP/JPY short450Feb 26, 2009Feb 26, 2009$3
USD/CAD long600Feb 26, 2009Feb 26, 2009$2,003
GBP/USD short200Feb 25, 2009Feb 25, 2009($474)
GBP/JPY short450Feb 24, 2009Feb 24, 2009$4
AUD/USD long300Feb 23, 2009Feb 23, 2009$603
GBP/JPY short750Feb 23, 2009Feb 23, 2009$14
USD/CAD long600Feb 22, 2009Feb 23, 2009$1,644
GBP/JPY short200Feb 19, 2009Feb 19, 2009$12
GBP/JPY short400Feb 19, 2009Feb 19, 2009$7
EUR/GBP long200Feb 18, 2009Feb 19, 2009$615
AUD/USD long600Feb 16, 2009Feb 19, 2009$3,143
GBP/JPY short300Feb 18, 2009Feb 18, 2009$0
GBP/JPY short150Feb 18, 2009Feb 18, 2009$4
GBP/USD long150Feb 18, 2009Feb 18, 2009($1,113)
GBP/JPY long150Feb 18, 2009Feb 18, 2009($8)
GBP/JPY short150Feb 17, 2009Feb 17, 2009$4
GBP/JPY long150Feb 17, 2009Feb 17, 2009($1)
EUR/GBP long200Feb 17, 2009Feb 17, 2009($1,069)
GBP/JPY short150Feb 17, 2009Feb 17, 2009$3
GBP/JPY short150Feb 17, 2009Feb 17, 2009$0
EUR/USD long400Feb 16, 2009Feb 17, 2009$554
GBP/JPY long150Feb 17, 2009Feb 17, 2009$7
GBP/JPY long150Feb 17, 2009Feb 17, 2009($3)
GBP/JPY long150Feb 17, 2009Feb 17, 2009($4)
GBP/JPY long150Feb 16, 2009Feb 16, 2009$4

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.