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Gold Trading

Futures · Started Sep 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
3
Win Trades
66.7%
Profit Factor
0.30
Win Months
0.5%

About this strategy

Gold has great volatility, and is easier to look for profit

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200860.7-107.60.00.0-112.2
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/25/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age219 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades3
# Profitable2
% Profitable66.7%
Avg trade duration10.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodOct 22, 2008 - Oct 24, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$24,000
Avg loss$157,930

Ratios

W:L ratio0.30
Sharpe Ratio-5.04
Sortino Ratio-4.96
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life531.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-643.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$157,930
Avg Win$24,000
# Winners2
Sum Trade PL (losers)$157,930
Sum Trade PL (winners)$48,000
Num Months Winners1
# Losers1
% Winners66.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table2

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)15295.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)254.92
Avg Trade Length10.60
Last Trade Ago6531

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.08
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.69
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.16
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats2.97
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats15.54
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.57
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.59

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean22807.36
SD51842.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df61
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.30
Sortino ratio51842.25
Upside Potential Ratio51842.69
Upside part of mean22807.55
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD51842.25
Downside SD0.44
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms1
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion22807.36
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion51842.25
Covariance-1210.10
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-9017.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)27117.79
Mean Square Error2721318912
DF error60
t(b)-0.49
p(b)0.69
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-45489.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta27454.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-21988.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha76223.59
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.53
Jensen alpha (a)27117.79
Mean0
SD7.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df61
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.86
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.44
Upside part of mean2.26
Downside part of mean-2.26
Upside SD5.14
Downside SD5.14
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms1
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion7.32
Covariance0.26
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.99
Mean Square Error53.91
DF error60
t(b)0.84
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.29
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.89
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-0.99
VaR(95%)0.97
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean129928.25
SD125465.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df1354
t2.36
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio113456.62
Upside Potential Ratio113457.96
Upside part of mean129929.78
Downside part of mean-1.53
Upside SD125675.90
Downside SD1.15
N nonnegative terms1338
N negative terms17
N of observations1355
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion129928.25
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion125465.59
Covariance13558.59
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)61370.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)97866
Mean Square Error14920540160
DF error1353
t(b)8.69
p(b)0.35
t(a)1.82
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta47515.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta75224.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7750.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha203482.64
Treynor index (mean / b)2.12
Jensen alpha (a)97866
Mean0
SD17.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df1354
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.86
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio1.11
Upside part of mean13.52
Downside part of mean-13.52
Upside SD12.48
Downside SD12.13
N nonnegative terms1338
N negative terms17
N of observations1355
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion17.41
Covariance2.23
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)10.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.18
Mean Square Error280.57
DF error1353
t(b)10.44
p(b)0.33
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta12.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-18.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-4.18
VaR(95%)0.83
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.88
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.22
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations62
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum117840
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 47365.94
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high117840
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1355
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum152600
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41983.20
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.53
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high74663.79
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-5.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)-274.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-377456704
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QGC Z8long10Oct 2, 2008Oct 27, 2008($158,010)
QGC Z8short10Sep 29, 2008Oct 2, 2008$31,120
QGC Z8long10Sep 25, 2008Sep 29, 2008$16,720

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.