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Reliant

Stocks · Started Sep 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.7%
Max Drawdown
43.2%
Trades
476
Win Trades
54.6%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
8.8%

About this strategy







I have been trading systems based on this algorithm since 2003, with quite good results.

This system requires a pattern day trading account with a minimum initial balance of $25000.

Results shown use 2:1 margin allowed by C2, but typically, a day trading account can use 4:1 margin. Results can be increased further 50-80% by using 4:1 margin.

Each trade is approximately 50% of the equity so, using 4:1 margin, maximum 8 trades are allowed. If you use 2:1 margin, then 4 trades are allowed.

Short signals can be ignored if your account does not permit shorting stocks (Most IRA accounts).

System signal generation is completely automated. Signals are entered each day when a security moves within some distance towards the entry price.

IMPORTANT!!
Use at your own risk. System does not use stops, but always closes any open positions at the end of the day*
Risk can be controlled further by taking each position equal to 33% or even 25% of the equity.

*FAQ.
Q. I see a few positions that are closed at the next day market open.
A. End of day close orders are always sent at the entry time.
However, sometimes when there is a lot of market activity, C2 servers get overwhelmed, and cannot process orders in time before the market close. In those rare instances, new order has to be issued to manually close the position at the next day market open. This affects only the simulated account as the close at market order is already sent which is supposed to be parked until shortly before market close. I have told C2 about this numerous times, but they have not fixed it yet.
Update 3/18/2011: C2 has allocated more CPU time to this system, so this problem may have been resolved.



Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20086.77.1-1.10.613.7
2009-2.3-7.711.27.6-8.115.73.64.86.3-1.2-2.12.130.7
2010-5.02.47.23.132.21.0-0.3-1.5-3.86.2-2.55.548.2
20117.612.0-0.5-1.9-1.1-21.2-0.9-16.7-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-26.1
2012-0.6-0.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.1
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/4/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$24,999
Age219 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades476
# Profitable260
% Profitable54.6%
Avg trade duration9.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.2%
drawdown periodMarch 10, 2011 - Feb 17, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)2.7%
Avg win$495
Avg loss$455

Ratios

W:L ratio1.32
Sharpe Ratio0.10
Sortino Ratio0.16
Calmar Ratio0.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life510.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-458.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity75.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.9%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$455
Avg Win$495
# Winners260
Sum Trade PL (losers)$98,245
Sum Trade PL (winners)$128,700
Num Months Winners23
# Losers216
% Winners54.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct889

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table217

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)557.92
Avg Position Time (hrs)9.30
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago5505

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.19

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades169.82
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.08
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats81.02
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats90.27
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.80
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.68
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df73
t1.75
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio1.53
Upside Potential Ratio2.74
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms14
N of observations74
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error72
t(b)-0.17
p(b)0.57
t(a)1.69
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.11
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df73
t1.60
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio1.28
Upside Potential Ratio2.47
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms14
N of observations74
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error72
t(b)0.02
p(b)0.49
t(a)1.50
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)96.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.17
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df1615
t1.22
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.76
Upside Potential Ratio4.13
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms1395
N negative terms221
N of observations1616
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error1614
t(b)-1.23
p(b)0.52
t(a)1.29
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.11
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.32
df1615
t0.80
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio3.79
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms1395
N negative terms221
N of observations1616
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error1614
t(b)-1.27
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations74
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.78
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations1616
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low221
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high251
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.06
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations46
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high0.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396041344
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)344
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.32
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.77
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 272 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
STX long663Aug 19, 2011Aug 19, 2011($18)
MU long1271Aug 19, 2011Aug 19, 2011$20
GMCR long78Aug 19, 2011Aug 19, 2011($82)
FSLR long74Aug 19, 2011Aug 19, 2011($41)
URBN long259Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011$29
WFM long226Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011$2
VMED long277Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($89)
CTXS long121Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($407)
NIHD long182Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($6)
NVDA long557Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($61)
SNDK long192Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($231)
NWSA long415Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011$17
SBUX long356Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($482)
NFLX long214Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($103)
COST long90Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011$24
CHKP long121Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($364)
CELG long244Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011$2
BIDU long52Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011$30
APOL long147Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($7)
GMCR long71Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($425)
GOOG long12Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($177)
STX long587Aug 17, 2011Aug 17, 2011$124
DLTR long198Aug 17, 2011Aug 17, 2011($75)
NIHD long187Aug 10, 2011Aug 10, 2011($23)
ADBE long288Aug 10, 2011Aug 10, 2011($95)
SPLS long541Aug 10, 2011Aug 10, 2011$65
FSLR long71Aug 9, 2011Aug 9, 2011$380
MRVL long577Aug 9, 2011Aug 9, 2011$105
CHKP long139Aug 9, 2011Aug 9, 2011$345
FFIV long92Aug 9, 2011Aug 9, 2011$307

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.