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Q-Trends

Stocks · Started Aug 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
3
Win Trades
33.3%
Profit Factor
0.20
Win Months
2.3%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2008-0.328.0-0.3-0.3-9.614.7
20095.810.1-15.4-28.6-11.4-13.3-36.9-10.1-40.131.7-51.6-89.7-98.8
20101032.5-59.2-264.6-47.5-98.4-4102.0-111.1-715.4-317.5-80.8-9.4-24.9-2810.8
2011-13.3-14.0-0.5-11.9-15.1-3.9-7.9-22.6-7.4-27.6-19.9-12.6
2012-38.8-13.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
2014-0.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/30/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age220 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades3
# Profitable1
% Profitable33.3%
Avg trade duration388.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMay 25, 2010 - Feb 17, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$2,885
Avg loss$9,033

Ratios

W:L ratio0.16
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Sortino Ratio0.25
Calmar Ratio-0.83

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.21
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life495.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-663.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$9,032
Avg Win$2,885
# Winners1
Sum Trade PL (losers)$18,065
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,885
Num Months Winners5
# Losers2
% Winners33.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table20

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)559379.69
Avg Position Time (hrs)9322.99
Avg Trade Length388.50
Last Trade Ago5323

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.71
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.81
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.17
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats1.77
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.06
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.02
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.81

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean165.15
SD382.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df63
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio209.80
Upside Potential Ratio211.07
Upside part of mean166.15
Downside part of mean-1.01
Upside SD382.35
Downside SD0.79
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms15
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion165.15
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion382.37
Covariance-15.14
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-162.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)231.76
Mean Square Error146060.75
DF error62
t(b)-1.03
p(b)0.85
t(a)1.30
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-478.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta152.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-123.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha586.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.02
Jensen alpha (a)231.76
Mean-1.77
SD5.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.34
df63
t-0.79
p0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.51
Sortino ratio-0.42
Upside Potential Ratio0.38
Upside part of mean1.60
Downside part of mean-3.37
Upside SD2.99
Downside SD4.22
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms15
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion-1.77
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion5.19
Covariance-0.23
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.82
Mean Square Error26.69
DF error62
t(b)-1.21
p(b)0.89
t(a)-0.34
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-7.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.93
Treynor index (mean / b)0.67
Jensen alpha (a)-0.82
VaR(95%)0.93
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.96
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
Mean104.43
SD151.75
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df1399
t1.59
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio65.54
Upside Potential Ratio69.55
Upside part of mean110.82
Downside part of mean-6.39
Upside SD151.82
Downside SD1.59
N nonnegative terms1165
N negative terms235
N of observations1400
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion104.43
SD of predictor0.59
SD of criterion151.75
Covariance-3.98
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-11.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)110.48
Mean Square Error22998.74
DF error1398
t(b)-1.65
p(b)0.52
t(a)1.68
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-24.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-18.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha239.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.24
Jensen alpha (a)110.48
Mean-1.77
SD6.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.27
df1399
t-0.63
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.58
Sortino ratio-0.37
Upside Potential Ratio1.92
Upside part of mean9.23
Downside part of mean-11.00
Upside SD4.35
Downside SD4.81
N nonnegative terms1165
N negative terms235
N of observations1400
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion-1.77
SD of predictor0.58
SD of criterion6.49
Covariance-0.81
r-0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.91
Mean Square Error40.23
DF error1398
t(b)-8.16
p(b)0.61
t(a)-0.33
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.48
Treynor index (mean / b)0.75
Jensen alpha (a)-0.91
VaR(95%)0.49
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.56
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.29
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations64
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum884
Mean of quarter 10.66
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 456.38
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low0.64
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high178.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations1400
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum273.67
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 42.69
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low235
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.85
Number of outliers high184
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high4.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.19
Quartile 10.39
Median0.60
Quartile 30.80
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.19
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.40
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.10
Median0.24
Quartile 30.26
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.22
Mean of quarter 30.26
Mean of quarter 40.63
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-389560800
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)633
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.83
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.87
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.32
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.48
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QLD short1800Dec 24, 2008Feb 17, 2012($17,276)
QLD long1800Dec 18, 2008Dec 24, 2008($815)
QID long24Sep 2, 2008Sep 11, 2008$2,885

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.