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PERSISTENT

Stocks · Started Jul 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.6%
Max Drawdown
6.2%
Trades
335
Win Trades
62.1%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
4.1%

About this strategy








The system trades stocks everyday as it sees opportunities arise. All signals are sent in real time into the itm window and thru email. Orders can be market, limit, or stop market. We do not use hard stop losses due to fake prints triggering faulty exits. The stops are mental.

Note: Drawdown on V trade on 4/30/09 is erroneous. It is based on a false tick.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20087.91.92.52.7-0.2-0.215.3
2009-0.60.20.12.3-1.30.0-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.00.00.00.2
20100.20.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.92.1
20110.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.1
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-5.50.00.0-5.5
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/2/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$200,000
Age222 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades335
# Profitable208
% Profitable62.1%
Avg trade duration25.1 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown6.2%
drawdown periodJune 05, 2009 - Oct 01, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)0.6%
Avg win$612
Avg loss$695

Ratios

W:L ratio1.49
Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Sortino Ratio-0.70
Calmar Ratio0.17

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life505.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-495.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity6.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$695
Avg Win$612
# Winners208
Sum Trade PL (losers)$88,221
Sum Trade PL (winners)$127,387
Num Months Winners19
# Losers127
% Winners62.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct4260

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table219

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)25.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)0.42
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago6306

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index2.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.49
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats41.62
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.63
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.39
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df63
t1.59
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio1.26
Upside Potential Ratio1.74
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms59
N negative terms5
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error62
t(b)-0.93
p(b)0.82
t(a)1.79
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.03
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df63
t1.55
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio1.19
Upside Potential Ratio1.67
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms59
N negative terms5
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance-0.00
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error62
t(b)-1.08
p(b)0.86
t(a)1.77
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.04
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df1416
t0.58
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Sortino ratio0.36
Upside Potential Ratio2.21
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms1331
N negative terms86
N of observations1417
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.58
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.03
r-0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1415
t(b)-13.78
p(b)0.71
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.03
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df1416
t0.40
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.02
Sortino ratio0.24
Upside Potential Ratio2.07
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms1331
N negative terms86
N of observations1417
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.57
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.03
r-0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1415
t(b)-13.72
p(b)0.71
t(a)0.92
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.87
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.72
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations64
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1417
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low86
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high137
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-394617056
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2309
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.27
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.40
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 712 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SKF short814Jun 8, 2009Jun 8, 2009($4,182)
DIA short3000Jun 8, 2009Jun 8, 2009($833)
SKF long313Jun 5, 2009Jun 5, 2009$418
SKF long313Jun 5, 2009Jun 5, 2009$518
GOOG short1000Jun 5, 2009Jun 5, 2009$610
SKF long313Jun 5, 2009Jun 5, 2009$568
SKF long625Jun 5, 2009Jun 5, 2009$3,246
SKF short625Jun 5, 2009Jun 5, 2009($1,762)
SKF short313Jun 5, 2009Jun 5, 2009($707)
SKF long438Jun 3, 2009Jun 3, 2009$1,015
SKF short313Jun 2, 2009Jun 2, 2009$19
SKF long625Jun 1, 2009Jun 1, 2009$1,193
SKF short625Jun 1, 2009Jun 1, 2009$731
SKF short625May 29, 2009May 29, 2009$191
SKF long313May 29, 2009May 29, 2009($2,012)
AAPL long21429May 26, 2009May 26, 2009$292
FAZ short13May 26, 2009May 26, 2009($0)
DIA short2000May 26, 2009May 26, 2009$135
SKF short313May 26, 2009May 26, 2009($430)
POT short9091May 21, 2009May 21, 2009$1,593
SKF short375May 20, 2009May 20, 2009($158)
DE long1000May 20, 2009May 20, 2009$105
ADI long3000May 20, 2009May 20, 2009($5)
DE long3000May 20, 2009May 20, 2009$488
SKF long250May 15, 2009May 15, 2009$741
SKF short250May 14, 2009May 14, 2009$795
SKF short250May 14, 2009May 14, 2009$675
AMAT short5000May 13, 2009May 13, 2009$443
MA short20000May 13, 2009May 13, 2009($88)
MA short20000May 13, 2009May 13, 2009$53

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.