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Catch A Wave (small margin futures)

Futures · Started May 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.0%
Max Drawdown
35.2%
Trades
35
Win Trades
51.4%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
0.9%

About this strategy









Catch A Wave (small margin futures) gives recommendations on those commodities with initial margins of roughly $3000 or less, intended for any size account, but particularly appropriate for smaller accounts. Many of the other systems that show good overall returns may, upon closer inspection, have achieved their numbers from a few large wins in commodities such as the S&P or the energies (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, etc.) that many smaller accounts would not have had enough money to participate in. Therefore this system seeks to provide a needed service to the "little guy".

Each trade signal given will always be accompanied by a Protective Stop, so the risk will be defined and limited (except in the very rare case of a gap opening price on the wrong side of our protective stop). As the trade moves in our favor, subscribers will receive instructions to "cancel and replace" the Protective Stop to lessen risk, or lock in profit. In many cases, targets will be set to close a contract and take profit if the price moves in our favor to that point.

(Note: Orders to OPEN a new trade will always be DAY orders, good only for one day. The contingent Protective Stop order will always be a GTC, or Good Till Cancelled Order.)

With each new recommendation, and change instructions on existing trades, subscribers will receive clear explanations of what we're doing, and where we stand in the trade. If we're risking $854 per contract on a new trade, or if we're moving our Protective Stop to lock in $477 of profit per contract, you'll know it.

We believe in risking about the same small percentage of our account on each trade, and recommend that policy. Hopefully you can trade at least 1 contract of each recommendation without risking more than 10% of your total account. For example, Catch A Wave started with $30,000, and will risk as close as possible to 7% of the total account, without going over, on each trade.

Watch for Catch A Wave (large margin futures) coming soon! This service will trade in the commodities requiring initial margins of roughly $3000 and up.





Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20080.08.9-19.04.8-9.7-0.5-0.50.0-17.4
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/31/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age223 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades35
# Profitable18
% Profitable51.4%
Avg trade duration3.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown35.2%
drawdown periodJuly 22, 2008 - Aug 15, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.0%
Avg win$1,030
Avg loss$1,295

Ratios

W:L ratio0.84
Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Sortino Ratio-0.43
Calmar Ratio-0.14

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life445.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-464.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity52.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,295
Avg Win$1,030
# Winners18
Sum Trade PL (losers)$22,015
Sum Trade PL (winners)$18,531
Num Months Winners4
# Losers17
% Winners51.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table221

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5584.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)93.07
Avg Trade Length3.90
Last Trade Ago6564

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.95

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.17
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.13
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats2.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.71
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.51
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.00
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.03
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df63
t-0.53
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.62
Sortino ratio-0.27
Upside Potential Ratio0.34
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms6
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error62
t(b)0.73
p(b)0.23
t(a)-0.73
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.83
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.04
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.28
df63
t-0.65
p0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.57
Sortino ratio-0.32
Upside Potential Ratio0.29
Upside part of mean0.04
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms6
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error62
t(b)0.96
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.90
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.74
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.00
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.00
df1397
t-0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.84
Sortino ratio-0.01
Upside Potential Ratio2.06
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms1329
N negative terms69
N of observations1398
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.63
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.04
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error1396
t(b)7.43
p(b)0.40
t(a)-0.39
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.04
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.15
df1397
t-0.34
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.70
Sortino ratio-0.20
Upside Potential Ratio1.84
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms1329
N negative terms69
N of observations1398
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.63
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.03
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error1396
t(b)6.96
p(b)0.41
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.50
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.09
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.55
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.93
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.55
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations64
Minimum0.76
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-26.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations1398
Minimum0.82
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low69
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high69
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.26
Quartile 10.26
Median0.26
Quartile 30.26
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.12
Median0.18
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-376912352
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)24
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.47
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.14
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
C Z8long2Sep 24, 2008Sep 26, 2008($1,916)
W Z8long1Sep 23, 2008Sep 24, 2008($1,508)
JE Z8long1Sep 11, 2008Sep 12, 2008($483)
C Z8short2Sep 8, 2008Sep 12, 2008$172
JE U8long2Sep 8, 2008Sep 11, 2008$759
HE V8short2Sep 9, 2008Sep 11, 2008$484
HE V8short2Aug 19, 2008Aug 29, 2008$2,612
OJ X8long2Aug 22, 2008Aug 27, 2008$989
FV U8long2Aug 13, 2008Aug 22, 2008$625
O Z8long1Aug 13, 2008Aug 20, 2008($783)
YM U8long2Aug 18, 2008Aug 18, 2008($816)
KC Z8short1Aug 12, 2008Aug 12, 2008($1,058)
CT Z8short1Aug 11, 2008Aug 12, 2008($1,308)
CC Z8long2Aug 1, 2008Aug 4, 2008$1,484
HE V8long3Jul 25, 2008Aug 1, 2008($1,204)
NQ U8short3Jul 21, 2008Jul 23, 2008($4)
YI U8long5Jul 21, 2008Jul 22, 2008($2,440)
DX U8short4Jul 21, 2008Jul 22, 2008($1,712)
OJ U8long2Jul 21, 2008Jul 22, 2008($946)
SF U8long2Jul 21, 2008Jul 22, 2008($2,391)
YI U8long2Jul 10, 2008Jul 17, 2008$1,084
PX U8long2Jul 9, 2008Jul 15, 2008($366)
ME U8long2Jul 10, 2008Jul 15, 2008$2,072
FV U8long2Jul 4, 2008Jul 11, 2008$265
NE U8short2Jul 7, 2008Jul 9, 2008($1,296)
O Z8long2Jun 25, 2008Jul 6, 2008$1,309
ME U8long1Jun 25, 2008Jul 3, 2008$1,198
AD U8long1Jun 20, 2008Jul 1, 2008$322
SM Z8long1Jun 25, 2008Jun 30, 2008$672
NE U8short2Jun 26, 2008Jun 27, 2008($1,256)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.